It is inevitable to think these days of that saying which professes “pan for today, hungry for tomorrow”.No concept is more graphic to find explanation to proposals for “solute” the difficult economic situation that crosses our country.Employed by covering the sun with his hands, the government once again postponed the inevitable adjustment to the exchange rate.In this opportunity, he resorted to the innovative proposal to pay more for the dollars he will sell less. If, as the government offers to acquire "extraordinary" USD at a higher price than those of Argentina's lucky importers, whose foreign suppliers enjoy a subsidy for their products, can be purchased with cheap dollars.We have already said in this column that with this policy it would change until the same Federal Reserve would have exhausted its dollars, still being the issue of green notes.Again, between gallos and midnight, (because it was announced one day Sunday afternoon), was presented the “Exporting Increment Program” exclusive to soy and its derivatives.As in most Argentine magic solutions could not fail the concepts of “extraordinario and transitory”, something like the “Call now” of the fiscal and monetary policy of our country.La “great offer” is to acquire the dollars to a value of 200 dollars per unit, that is, the condition is that settlements occur before 30 September 2.022. With this, the government seeks to add up to $5,000 million in the next 25 days.
What happened on Monday after the announcement? What will happen later?
On Monday, September 5, less than 24 hours after the ads, the blue dollar dropped 15 pesos putting its value near the July prices.What were the measures so effective?
It's not all gold.Like all the beginning of the month, those who can buy dollar savings, run from the banks to the moving houses to make with a difference.In this case, the quote of the currency for savings reached 242.63 pesos per dollar, if we take into account that of that value buyers recover 35% of tax on profits the actual cost per unit is 179.73. With an unregulated market price of the order of 270 pesos per dollar, a gain of more than 90 pesos per unit, about 18,000 pesos for the 200 dollars.Not bad for just a few minutes of tail.This explains why the exchange rates behaved so disparate, lowering the blue (-$15) more than the alternatives of CCL or Mep (-$6), even after these announcements BCRA lost reserves, something more than 70 million dollars.Saving dollar sellers must carry out their operations on the informal market, that is why the month's principle offer has impacted more on this value.How's the thing going?
It is likely that, in the coming days, we will see export settlements, increase in reserves, smaller than liquidations and a Central Bank that seduces weight holders with even higher rates.However, these will be short sheets.Destinies of the product weights of these liquidations can be:- purchase of inputs, whose majority are dolarized or demand official dollars for their import, something that will impact on the exchange rate price.
- the purchase of productive capital goods, something that would be phenomenal, but that would hardly happen. It is known to lack of production and industrial products Due to the lack of currency for its production, it is most likely that it is impossible to purchase covers and tires for trucks and rural tractors.
- The purchase of local financial assets in weights, mainly bonds tied to inflation or the exchange rate. The government has been doing a festival of obligations in weights adjusted by indicators that accompany inflation. This is occasioning Debt services on taxable pesos, even being able to issue weights for your cancellation. The market does not rule out a default future of debt in local currency by the government or what is very likely, the loss of purchasing power of the weights that will be received, result of an inflationary escalation and an uncontrolled devaluation.
- Consequently, the alternative left to these weights is to return to the dollar. Whether through alternative markets or blue It is very likely that exporters will vuelcate much of that trillion of pesos that is sought to exchange for $5 billion again for foreign currency.
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