In this note, I will analyze the data from more than 10 indicators to structurally see what differences Ethereum had between its historical highs of 2021 and 2025 (historical high means the highest price it reached).
First, I share with you the general comparative chart of the differences so that you have a global perspective. Then I will explain with didactic conclusions what these data reflect:
• **Funds**
Currently, institutional metrics show a profound change compared to 2021. The holdings of ETH by investment funds nearly doubled (+98.77%), increasing from 3,213,450 to 6,387,239 ETH ($27 billion), and the average volume traded by these entities increased by x12.83 (+1,183.24%) to $3.2 billion.
Conclusion: These data reflect the evolution of Ethereum, how it ceased to be a limited asset to the crypto ecosystem to become a financial asset adopted by large investment funds, such as BlackRock, on Wall Street.
• **Deposits in CEXs**
ETH reserves in CEXs (for example, centralized exchanges like Binance) fell by -38.89%, and the supply ratio decreased by a similar percentage (-39.18%).
Conclusion: This reduction marks a key difference from 2021 when the volumes available on exchanges were higher. The low supply of ETH in CEXs creates a structurally bullish environment in the long term.
• **Staking and Supply**
Staking (ETH deposited to generate yields, among other technical utilities) grew from 8.53 million ($36 billion) to 36.15 million ETH ($155 billion) in four years, that is, +323.50%, while the total supply only increased by 2.78%.
Conclusion: These data position Ethereum as a productive and low-emission asset. The combination of controlled supply and high demand for its staking indicates a favorable and solid scenario for the ecosystem.
• **Derivatives**
Open interest (amount of USD part of the derivatives market) is 3.68 times higher than in 2021 (+268.11%), confirming a much larger futures market. It rose from $8 billion to $32 billion in 4 years.
The funding rate fell by -39.23% (from 0.0181 to 0.0110), signaling a more balanced distribution between long and short positions compared to 2021.
In liquidations, there was an increase in longs (+92.87%) and a strong increase in shorts (+333.88%), suggesting episodes of squeeze in both directions, with greater incidence on the bearish side.
Conclusion: Currently, there is high speculation with very high levels of leverage compared to 2021, which can create a propitious situation for rapid and volatile movements. The large number of recent liquidations demonstrates that the market can react with strong intensity. The accumulated tension could be resolved in sharp movements in any direction, whether downward or upward. In this context, it is essential to apply strict risk management. Extreme caution, constant monitoring, and the obligation to use stop loss (an order to sell that is executed automatically when the previously defined price is reached) are recommended when trading.
• **Network Activity**
On-chain activity shows moderate variations: active addresses -16.29% and transactions +12.54%.
Conclusion: The data suggests that network usage remains strong and consistent, with no signs of euphoria or severe contraction.
• **Market Data**
Beyond price and market capitalization, which remained without exaggerated differences, I want to emphasize how the volatility of Ethereum has been stabilizing more and more since 2021. It went from being a chaotic asset to one with falls and rises, but much more structured.
To show you this evolution, I will use a technical indicator called Anchored VWAP, which is a formula that calculates the average price at which the asset has been traded from a specific point you choose (weighted by volume). By using the average price as a reference, it is possible to monitor how the transition from a buyer-dominated market (when the price is above the average price) to a seller-dominated market (when the price is below the average price) develops. It helps to determine historical overbought and oversold levels, as well as potential supports (price floors) and resistances (price ceilings). It is used to analyze any financial asset on micro and macro levels (stocks, bonds, commodities, crypto, etc.).
In this case, I used multiple Anchored VWAPs in Ethereum for a macro analysis. Throughout the chart, you can observe numerous lines marked in red and green; these correspond to 14 average prices calculated using this indicator (identified on the right side of the chart). I used it loaded in this way for didactic purposes to show you how they historically functioned to determine support and resistance levels. For a more tactical micro execution, a cleaner chart with fewer lines (A-VWAPs) is used.
**Fact:** Notice how the oversold levels and floors observed in 2025 due to the tariff war were the same oversold levels and floors that existed in the bearish market of 2022-2023, only that this time it was of short duration and not long.
**Note:** It is NOT a predictive indicator; it only analyzes present and past data; NO technical indicator is futuristic; that DOES NOT exist. In the image, the price of ETH is shown with Japanese candlesticks (the red and green rectangles):
Comments