In this note, I will analyze the data from more than 10 indicators to structurally see what differences Ethereum had between its historical peaks in 2021 and 2025.
First, I share with you the general comparative table of the differences to give you a global perspective. I will then explain with didactic conclusions what these data mean:
Clarification: In all on-chain graphs, the white line represents the price of ETH.
• Investment Funds
Currently, institutional metrics show a profound change compared to 2021. Holdings of ETH by funds almost doubled (+98%), increasing from 3,213,450 ETH ($13.8 billion) to 6,387,239 ETH ($27.4 billion) and the average volume traded by these entities multiplied by 12.83 (+1,183%) from $250 million to $3.2 billion.
Conclusion: This information reflects the evolution of Ethereum, how it ceased to be a limited asset to the crypto ecosystem to become part of the U.S. financial system, being adopted on Wall Street by large investment funds such as BlackRock. Furthermore, from the end of this year onwards, institutional demand could increase even further due to the first federal pro-crypto laws promoted in the United States and the incorporation of staking (a way to earn annual returns with ETH) as a service on Wall Street.
Green area = amount of ETH purchased by investment funds:
Green area = trading volume (USD) of investment funds:
On this point, I recommend reading the note I wrote about it:
https://fin.guru/es/tecnologia-e-innovacion/digital-commodities-bitcoin-and-ethereum-3epklrs4ao
Topics discussed:
A) Federal pro-crypto laws in the U.S.
B) The institutional evolution of Bitcoin and Ethereum.
C) Ethereum and its ecosystem.
D) The Wall Street narrative.
• Deposits in CEXs
Reserves of ETH in CEXs (for example, centralized exchanges like Binance) fell by −38% and the supply ratio decreased by a similar percentage (−39%).
Conclusion: This reduction marks a significant difference compared to 2021, when the volumes available on exchanges were higher. The reduced supply of ETH on CEXs creates a structurally bullish environment in the long term.
Purple line = amount of ETH deposited in CEXs:
• Staking and Supply
The amount of Ethereum deposited in staking (a way to earn annual returns with it) grew from 8.53 million ($36 billion) to 36.15 million ETH ($155 billion) in four years, representing +323%, while the total supply only increased by 2.78%.
Conclusion: This data positions Ethereum as a productive and low-emission asset. The combination of controlled supply and great demand for its staking indicates a favorable and solid scenario for the ecosystem.
Purple line = amount of ETH deposited in staking:
• Derivatives
The open interest (amount of USD committed in the derivatives market) is 3.68 times higher than in 2021 (+268%), confirming a much larger futures market. It went from $8 billion to $32 billion in 4 years.
The financing rate fell by −39%, a sign of a more balanced distribution between long and short positions compared to 2021.
In liquidations, there was an increase in longs (+92%) and a strong increase in shorts (+333%), which suggests episodes of squeezes in both directions, with greater incidence on the downside.
Conclusion: Currently, there is high speculation with very elevated levels of leverage, compared to 2021, which may create a favorable situation for rapid and volatile movements. The large number of recent liquidations demonstrates that the market can react with strong intensity. The accumulated tension could resolve in abrupt movements in either direction, whether downwards or upwards. In this context, it is essential to apply strict risk management. Extreme caution, constant monitoring, and the obligation to use stop loss (a sell order that is automatically executed when the previously defined price is reached) when trading are recommended.
Purple line = amount of USD committed in the derivatives market:
• Network Activity
On-chain activity shows moderate variations: active addresses −16% and transactions +12%.
Conclusion: The use of the network remains solid and consistent, without signs of euphoria or severe contraction.
Purple line = number of transactions made on the ETH blockchain:
• Market Data
Beyond the price and market capitalization, which remained without exaggerated differences, at this point I want to emphasize how the volatility of Ethereum has been stabilizing more and more since 2021. It went from being a chaotic asset to one, with falls and rises, but much more structured.
To show you this evolution, I will use a technical indicator called Anchored VWAP, which is a formula that calculates the average price at which the asset has been traded since a specific point of your choice (weighted by volume). By referencing the average price, you can monitor how the transition from a buyer-dominated market (when the price is above the average price) to one dominated by sellers (when the price is below the average price) develops. It is used to determine historical levels of oversold and overbought, as well as potential supports (price floors) and resistances (price ceilings). It is used to analyze any financial asset in a micro and macro way (stocks, bonds, commodities, crypto, etc.).
In this case, I used multiple Anchored VWAPs on Ethereum to perform a macro analysis (weekly candle). Throughout the chart, you can observe numerous lines that I marked in red and green, which correspond to 14 average prices calculated using this indicator (identified to the right of the chart). I used it loaded this way for didactic purposes to show you how historically they worked to determine levels of support and resistance. For a more tactical micro execution, the clean chart is used (with fewer AVWAP lines, you will see it at the end of the article).
It is NOT a predictive indicator, it only analyzes present and past data, NO technical indicator is futuristic, that does NOT exist.
Data: Notice how the levels of oversold and floors observed in 2025 due to the tariff war were the same levels of oversold and floors that occurred in the bear market of 2022-2023, only that this time it was of short duration and not long. The price of ETH is shown with candlesticks (the red and green rectangles):
Finally, I show you how the cleaner chart looks for micro analysis (daily candle). On the side, I indicated which indicators I used. I clarify that I created the image on October 13, for a post by CryptoQuant that required the English language, which is why you will see it like this. If you want to read it, I leave you the link; it can be translated into Spanish on the same page.
Ethereum During the U.S. – China Conflict: https://cryptoquant.com/insights/quicktake/68ed76374885f90809fc4957-Ethereum-During-the-US-China-Conflict
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