The Qatar World Cup 2022 kicks off on November 20. The same question is renewed every 4 years:
Is there a relationship for the winner of the world between economics and football?
In the case of the winning countries, the answer is yes, but far from what one would have imagined in advance, At least since the 1990 World: the winners had, on average, an increase in their GDP of 1.6% above the forecast, although this relationship may not be of all linear and causal (article written by economists David Sands and Natalie Malek in The Washington Post). Winning a World shoots better prospects for consumption and improves the feeling of many subjective indicators that encourage consumption.If we stick to World Bank data, we can observe that in the winning countries of the last world (with the exception of France) GDP increased compared to the previous year (being T in the year of the World). For example, after winning the World of Germany 2006, Italy grew 0.1% in the same year to 1.9% in the following year. In the case of Spain, after the World of 2010 showed a positive effect on tourism that year. The spill effect is far from wide: apart from Germany, the host countries of the last world have not been central countries that move the world economy like China or the United States. An increase in the sale of sports products in the winning country has also been detected or the increase in rights to television parties.What is the relationship for the winner of the world in terms of scholarship?
The impact it generates on the bag level is easy to confirm. Different investigations argue that during the championship if a country wins, the enthusiasm that generates this victory causes investors to seek more risks and raise prices the next day. On the other hand, if a team loses, investors are more reluctant at risk the next day and take less risks. In the bag, a positive impact is given according to a study by the HSBC bank, which indicates that since 1966, the share index of all countries that have won some World has exceeded 9% to the general average. Preferences by sectors? The tourist companies, specifically the hotel chains and the airlines.In the case of the organizing countries or headquarters of a world, a Harvard University study published in 2016 on sporting events such as FIFA Cups and Olympic Games found no evidence between major sporting events and greater economic activity, either directly or indirectly in the short or long term. But the insertion of the country brand, although it is more a matter of long term and very difficult to measure directly, is certainly a benefit. A little more direct is the impact on receptive tourism before, during and (more difficult to measure) after the event.Specifically with the Qatar 2020 event, the organizing country expects an economic impact of $16 billion. It is estimated that you will receive 1.5 million visitors, which represents more than half of your population, and by which this year will be created 75,000 jobs. A direct infrastructure investment of about $6,500 million was launched. Qatar invested in a modern public transport network, consisting of a three-line and 37-station subte, three other tram lines and a bus scheme that covers Doha and its surroundings. This infrastructure stays and is a social well with spill effects on the population.What more to ask a country that before pandemic recorded one of the lowest unemployment rates on the planet of 0.2%? Today even after the peak of pandemic is 0.3%. It is the third nation with the largest gas reserve in the world and its exports account for 90% of its commercial revenues. In addition, Qatar is one of the 10 richest countries in the world measured according to GDP per capita (of $5,751 dollars).In Argentina the ball is already running. Among the countries that most tickets sold to the Qatar Cup 2022 Argentina is in seventh place, which also speaks of the amount of people who will spend on services in the World Cup, dynamizing their economy.Countries that most tickets sold to the World Qatar 2022
- Qatar 947.846
- United States: 146.616
- Saudi Arabia: 123.228
- England: 91.632
- Mexico: 91.173
- United Arab Emirates: 66.127
- Argentina: 61.083
- France: 42.287
- Brazil: 39.546
- Germany: 38.117
What are the forecasts?
We also take into account the following: Liberum Capital is a research company that has a model that predicts which would be the next world champion. It reached both in 2014 and in 2018 that they were going to be the champions. These were the forecasts of Liberum and other banks that have models to predict the result based on the various variables:Who wins the World Cup? Review of forecasts for the world 2014 and 2018
Source: Liberum
Who will win the next World Cup of Qatar 2022? The odds percentages play in favor of Argentina, winning in the final to England:
Source: Liberum Capital projections
To give this result some things would change in the short term, such as the consumption of certain products or the increase in national, political and consumer sentiment. But no matter how much more than welcome, Argentina goes through a much deeper crisis that does not solve with a world.
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