In the last few hours, US President Donald Trump announced that the US military carried out attacks on 3 of Iran's nuclear bases. These attacks come in a context of constantly escalating tension in the conflict between the Iranian regime and the State of Israel.
Latest developments
Since June 13, when Israel launched the "Rising Lion" plan, aimed at destroying Iran's nuclear infrastructure and weakening the chain of command of its military apparatus, the situation in the region has ceased to be tense only in discourse and has entered a phase of direct conflict between the two countries. Iranian Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described the execution of the plan as successful and declared that "Israel refuses to be a victim of a nuclear holocaust perpetrated by the Iranian regime", and that the operation "will last as many days as it has to last".
The responses to this initial attack by the Iranian regime, which combined a strong military offensive and the actions of Israeli intelligence, consisted of a counter-offensive and statements by the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, who made it clear that Israel would regret its actions, and that if either the United States, France or the United Kingdom stopped Iranian attacks on Israeli territory, they would also be attacked.
American escalation
The first reaction of the American government to the Israeli attacks was through statements by its Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, who assured that it was a unilateral attack by Israeli forces. Despite the threats perpetrated by Iran, the American government helped the Israeli army to stop the Iranian missiles, and President Trump maintained that Iran could not have access to nuclear weapons.
During last week's G7 meeting, Donald Trump, in addition to criticizing the decision to exclude Russia from the group in 2014 (when it was still the G8), surprisingly left the summit to monitor tensions in the Middle East on June 17.
From then on, the American president's discourse began to escalate progressively. From declaring that the United States would not participate offensively in the conflict to declaring that he did not totally rule it out within a few days, until rumors began to circulate from Washington that it was an increasingly latent possibility.
Finally the attack
This discursive escalation by the United States materialized in the last hours when the US army attacked 3 Iranian nuclear bases. Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan were the targets of the operation "Midnight Hammer", which President Trump himself described as "very successful". This attack marked the first direct U.S. attack on the Iranian nuclear plan.
The attack consisted in the attack of B-2 Spirit stealth bombers, which are capable of carrying bombs that allow the penetration of subway, as is the case of Fordow, in addition to Tomahawk missiles launched from submarines and ships, aimed mainly at the other two nuclear targets. The justification for the attack was that it was an action aimed at preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Undoubtedly, this attack represents a major regional escalation.
The Iranian regime's response to the attack was not at all a sign of surrender, as Donald Trump suggested it should react. The Iranian authorities declared that they consider the attack as "a serious international violation" and that they will "respond forcefully and in a timely manner". Environmental risks were ruled out since, according to the Atomic Energy Agency of Iran, there were no dangerous radioactive materials present at the time of the attack, and the plants were evacuated hours before the attack.
Undoubtedly, the retaliation that Iran may take against the United States and its allies generates greater regional and global instability, since if Iran attacks American military bases, which it has already mentioned as being within reach of potential attacks, the famous article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty Charter (NATO) may come into play, which establishes that an attack on any of the members is considered an attack on all members.
It is necessary to remember NATO's action in the war between Ukraine and Russia, which shows that each country is the one who decides how to respond, without the need to respond militarily in a compulsory way. However, it is necessary to consider who would be attacked and who would be attacked in retaliation, since attacking Ukraine is not the same as attacking the United States, nor attacking a power such as Russia as attacking Iran.
This new scenario on the Middle East chessboard generates unknowns as to how the next few days will unfold in the face of the American offensive, how the rest of the Western powers will express themselves, and how Russia and China will do so as well. This new scenario presents one of the greatest tensions in recent years in the region, which seems far from de-escalating in the near future.
Comments