Jesús Daniel Romero and William Acosta for Poder & Dinero and FinGurú
The geopolitical landscape in South America is increasingly precarious, with Guyana caught in a complex web of regional tensions. At the center of this situation is the Venezuelan aggression under Nicolás Maduro, whose government is reviving claims over the Esequibo region, a territory historically settled in 1899. This resurgence is not simply a territorial dispute serving as a strategic distraction from the internal turmoil affecting Venezuela. With a failing economy and growing discontent among its population, the Maduro regime seeks to reinforce its legitimacy by asserting claims over Guyana's significant oil reserves, positioning itself as a defender of national interests.
Complicating the situation is China's growing economic influence in Guyana, largely facilitated through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This initiative has enabled China to consolidate its presence in the region by financing critical infrastructure projects and expanding its economic influence. However, this strategy of Chinese lending has placed several Latin American countries in a position of co-dependence, creating a trap where China has the advantage due to the significant debts incurred. As these nations become increasingly dependent on Chinese financing, the risk of falling into a debt trap increases, potentially compromising their sovereignty and decision-making abilities.
China has emerged as a new capitalist power that, through predatory lending practices, takes control of the countries to which it lends without even firing a shot. This model of control poses serious risks to the national security of the United States, as loyalty is bought through commitments made by governments entering into these negotiations. Initially, these agreements may seem beneficial to their economies and projects; however, high-interest rates lead to deeper long-term issues.
China's strategic interests in Guyana are not limited to economic benefits. The country is very aware of the geopolitical ramifications of controlling resource-rich regions. By fostering closer ties with Guyana, China is not only expanding its influence but also enhancing its strategic position in South America, countering U.S. interests in a historically American-centered sphere of influence.
Amid these developments, the United States has been notably absent in countering the rising threats posed by both Venezuela and China. This lack of commitment jeopardizes not only U.S. strategic interests but also the stability of the region. Historically, the United States has played a key role in South American geopolitics, often acting as a counterbalance to authoritarian regimes. However, inaction could lead to a loss of influence, encouraging authoritarian regimes like Maduro's and allowing economic competitors like China to fill the vacuum left by American disarray.
To effectively address these threats, the United States must strengthen its economic ties with Guyana. A strategy focused on investment in infrastructure is essential to counter China’s influence and support the development of Guyana's economy. This could include funding for road networks, energy projects, and telecommunications systems to bolster the country's independence and resilience against external pressures.
Furthermore, expanding military support to strengthen Guyana's defense capabilities is crucial. The United States should consider joint military exercises and training programs to bolster Guyana's armed forces, ensuring they are well-equipped to respond to any potential aggression from Venezuela. Such measures would not only enhance Guyana's security but also send a message to both Maduro and Beijing that the United States remains committed to its allies in the region.
Encouraging U.S. companies to engage in Guyana’s burgeoning oil sector is another strategic imperative. By facilitating investment in local oil exploration and production, the United States can ensure that the benefits of these resources remain within the local economy, fostering economic growth and stability. This approach would also reduce Guyana's dependence on Chinese financing, lessening the risk of falling into a debt trap.
The Esequibo region has been the subject of various treaties and agreements over the years, particularly between Venezuela and Guyana. Notable agreements related to the Essequibo dispute include:
1. Treaty of Friendship (Venezuela and Great Britain, 1897): Aimed to resolve a border dispute between Venezuela and British Guiana (now Guyana), but ultimately did not resolve the issue.
2. Arbitral Award (1899): An international arbitration tribunal ruled in favor of British Guiana, establishing the boundaries that included the Essequibo region as part of British territory. Venezuela subsequently disputed this ruling, claiming it was based on faulty evidence and arguments.
3. Geneva Agreement (1966): An agreement between Venezuela and the UK (representing British Guiana) recognizing the need for a peaceful resolution to the border dispute, establishing the framework for negotiations.
4. Port of Spain Treaty (1970): This treaty reaffirmed both countries' commitment to resolve their differences peacefully and called for further negotiations on the border dispute.
5. United Nations Good Offices Process (1982): Following the Geneva Agreement, the United Nations became involved in facilitating dialogue between Venezuela and Guyana regarding the Essequibo region.
6. Montevideo Declaration (2016): In this declaration, both countries reaffirmed their commitment to seek a peaceful resolution to the border dispute and agreed to continue discussions under the auspices of the United Nations.
The negligence of the Biden Administration and its failed policies has exacerbated an already complex situation in South America. As a result, the United States has lost its ability to exert strong influence in the region, allowing authoritarian regimes and foreign powers to expand their reach without significant opposition. The upcoming Trump administration presents an opportunity to reverse this tide. By adopting a proactive stance, the new administration can restore the United States' presence and influence, particularly in areas where geopolitical interests are at stake.
To effectively address the challenges posed by Venezuela and China, the Trump administration should prioritize strengthening regional alliances, revitalizing economic partnerships, increasing diplomatic engagement, supporting democratic movements, and addressing security concerns. Implementing a comprehensive strategy that emphasizes regional partnerships, economic engagement, and support for democracy is essential to reclaim the role of the United States as a key player in the hemisphere.
Conclusion
The inaction of the United States could lead to a significant loss of influence in the region, potentially encouraging authoritarian regimes and undermining the foundations of democracy in South America. It is imperative that Washington acts decisively to support its ally, Guyana, while safeguarding its own interests in this strategically vital region. By improving economic ties, expanding military support, and fostering U.S. engagement in Guyana's oil sector, the United States can counter the threats posed by Venezuelan aggression and Chinese expansion, thereby fostering a more stable and prosperous South America.
Credits
This analysis is based on reports and articles from various sources, including The New York Times, BBC News, Al Jazeera, and Reuters, which have covered the situation in Venezuela and the geopolitical dynamics at play in recent years. Additional insights were obtained from publications such as The Washington Post, Bloomberg, and Financial Times, providing a comprehensive understanding of the current geopolitical landscape in Latin America.
Jesús Daniel Romero became an officer through the Navy Enlisted Program, and graduated with honors from Norfolk State University with a Bachelor’s degree in Political Science. He later graduated from the Naval Aviation Pre-Flight Indoctrination Course at Naval Aviation Schools Command and followed intermediate training in the VT-10 and VT-86 squadrons. He served aboard a nuclear missile cruiser, amphibious operation ships, and staff squadrons, a fixed-wing attack bombing squadron and a carrier air wing, was deployed to Libya, Bosnia, Iraq, and Somalia. He served tours with the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) in Panama, the Pacific Joint Intelligence Center in Hawaii, and the Joint POW/MIA Accounting Command. Jesús and his team successfully attacked an international criminal organization operating across several countries and in the United States, dismantling and disrupting criminal activities on behalf of Mexican cartels.
William L. Acosta is the founder and CEO of Equalizer Private Investigations & Security Services Inc. A licensed and bonded investigative agency in NYS, FL. With offices and affiliates worldwide. Equalizer maintains offices and affiliates in the United States in New York, Florida, and California. Since 1999, Equalizer's investigations have successfully closed hundreds of cases, ranging from homicides, missing persons, and other crimes. He has been involved in the criminal defense of hundreds of state and federal criminal cases ranging from homicide, narcotics, RICO, money laundering, conspiracy, and other federal and state charges. He specializes in international and multijurisdictional investigations and has undertaken investigations in Germany, Italy, Portugal, Spain, France, England, Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Panama, Colombia, Venezuela, Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador, Peru, Brazil, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic, among other locations. He has directed or coordinated hundreds of investigations related to international drug trafficking, money laundering, and homicides; and has been an instructor and international speaker on various investigative topics. Specialties: Criminal Defense Investigations, International Investigations, Homicides, Undercover Narcotics Operations, Investigations, Asset Forfeiture Investigations, Conspiracy, International Human Trafficking, Surveillance, International Terrorism, Intelligence, Technical Surveillance Countermeasures, Internal Affairs Investigations, National Security.
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