María Lourdes Lobo
International Relations Student, San Pablo Tucumán University
Introduction
This article analyzes the reconfiguration of the world order stemming from the structural rivalry between the United States and China, focusing on its implications for Latin America, particularly for Argentina. Through the theoretical lenses of realism, dependency, and critical multilateralism, it examines how the region, historically conditioned by asymmetrical ties, faces a key geopolitical dilemma. Should it align with a power? Or can it design an autonomous, strategic, and flexible foreign policy in a transitioning world? Throughout the text, it is proposed that the adoption of an approach of updated peripheral realism can offer Argentina a pragmatic alternative to position itself in an increasingly competitive and fragmented international scenario.
The reconfiguration of the international order
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States enjoyed a relatively uncontested hegemonic position. However, in recent decades, the economic, technological, and military rise of China has called this unipolar order into question. The trade war initiated by Donald Trump was merely an economic manifestation of a much deeper structural struggle, as Graham Allison (2017) has pointed out. This rivalry raises questions about what form the international system will take: bipolarity, multipolarity, or a hybrid order in permanent dispute?
Authors like Fareed Zakaria (2008) argue that we are facing a "post-American world," where the United States remains a central power, but shares the stage with emerging actors that challenge its leadership in multiple dimensions. The competition between Washington and Beijing is not limited to economics: it includes technological supremacy (Huawei, chips, 5G), financial (digital yuan vs. dollar), military (Indo-Pacific), and diplomatic competition, with a struggle for influence in strategic regions of the Global South.
Latin America between irrelevance and opportunity
Latin America finds itself caught between old dependencies and new opportunities. The lack of regional integration and the absence of a common strategy limit its maneuvering room in the face of great powers. As Roberto Russell (2019) warns, the region oscillates between subordination and irrelevance, failing to significantly impact international architecture.
China has expanded its presence in Latin America through strategic investments in energy, mining, infrastructure, and telecommunications, many connected to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Countries like Brazil, Peru, Bolivia, and Argentina have found in China a key partner to diversify exports and obtain financing with less political conditionality. Nonetheless, this also reproduces certain logics of external dependency, now under new forms (Tokatlian, 2021).
Meanwhile, the United States maintains its influence through financial institutions like the IMF and the IDB, as well as diplomatic mechanisms such as the OAS. These tools allow Washington to condition internal policies under the guise of assistance or international legitimacy. The continuity of these schemes generates a form of "disciplinary dependency" (Russell & Tokatlian, 2002), limiting the autonomy of Latin American countries in critical moments.
The Argentine dilemma: alignment or autonomy?
In this context, Argentina finds itself in a delicate position. The government of Javier Milei has opted for an ideological alignment with the United States, which has translated into rejecting entry into the BRICS and cooling relations with China. This stance, while consistent with official rhetoric, carries concrete risks. China is Argentina's second-largest trading partner and a significant provider of investments, financing, and infrastructure. Marginalizing that relationship may significantly reduce the country's strategic options in a competitive world with multiple alliances.
Furthermore, this shift has direct economic consequences. In the agro-export sector, tension with China could affect access to the soybean and meat markets. In industry, restrictions on Chinese financing cast doubt on key infrastructure projects like the dams in Santa Cruz or the Belgrano Cargas. Regarding lithium, where Argentina competes to attract investments in the lithium triangle, distancing from China (one of the world's largest battery buyers) could limit opportunities for national technological development (De la Balze, 2023; Tokatlian, 2020).
Politically, unconditional alignment reduces margins for an autonomous foreign policy and may incur future costs in scenarios of greater global fragmentation. Instead of adapting to a flexible multipolar system, Argentine foreign policy seems to adopt a Cold War logic, which is not functional in the current context.
Towards an alternative stance: updated peripheral realism
In view of these tensions, a viable alternative for Argentine foreign policy is updated peripheral realism, a theoretical current that recognizes the structural limitations of developing countries, while promoting pragmatic strategies aimed at maximizing relative autonomy (Escudé, 1992). However, unlike its original formulation, the current context demands rethinking its key postulates.
Classic peripheral realism was formulated in a scenario of unipolar hegemony and internal economic crisis. Today, global systemic competition, the weakening of the liberal order, the digitalization of geopolitics, and the emergence of transnational issues such as climate change necessitate a more complex approach.
An updated peripheral realism should incorporate at least three new dimensions:
Post-pandemic multilateralism: New forms of global cooperation (vaccines, health, debt, climate) reveal that even peripheral countries can have a voice if they articulate intelligent collective strategies (Tokatlian, 2020).
Digital technologies and data: Contemporary geopolitics is contested not only in military bases or commodity markets but in the control of data, artificial intelligence, and digital platforms, areas where China and the U.S. openly compete.
Climate agenda: The global energy transition imposes complex dilemmas regarding natural resources. Argentina needs policies that avoid a new form of subordinated extractivism and aim at creating value chains with technological autonomy.
A focus of this kind would involve:
Diversifying foreign relations, maintaining active ties with the United States, China, the European Union, the BRICS, and other emerging poles.
Promoting instances of regional cooperation, even in flexible frameworks, to increase collective negotiating capacity.
Avoiding the ideological politicization of foreign policy, instead prioritizing a strategy based on strategic interests and pragmatism.
Revaluing multilateral instruments, such as the G20, CELAC, or UNASUR, which can expand action margins without requiring automatic alignments.
This approach would allow Argentina to navigate the turbulence of the transitioning international order without being subordinated to the interests of a single power. It would also be a way to recover a diplomatic tradition that, with nuances, has sought to balance autonomy, cooperation, and pragmatism.
Conclusion
The reconfiguration of the world order forces peripheral countries to rethink their place in the international system. Latin America, and particularly Argentina, face the challenge of designing a foreign policy that combines autonomy, flexibility, and realism. Instead of opting for unrestricted alignments that deepen dependency, it is more advisable to adopt a strategic logic that allows for leveraging global tensions to expand action margins. In this sense, updated peripheral realism offers a useful framework for smart foreign policy in uncertain times, incorporating new variables that Escudé could not foresee, but which are now central to rethinking autonomy.
Bibliography
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Cardoso, F. H., & Faletto, E. (1969). Dependencia y desarrollo en América Latina. Siglo XXI.
De la Balze, F. (2023). Argentina y la geopolítica del siglo XXI. Revista de Relaciones Internacionales, CARI.
Escudé, C. (1992). Realismo periférico: fundamentos para la nueva política exterior argentina. Editorial Planeta.
Russell, R. (2019). América Latina y el orden internacional: el desafío de pensar estratégicamente. UNSAM Edita.
Russell, R., & Tokatlian, J. G. (2002). El lugar de Brasil en la política exterior argentina: una mirada desde el realismo periférico. FLACSO.
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Tokatlian, J. G. (2021). China en América Latina: ¿una nueva dependencia? Nueva Sociedad, (292).
Zakaria, F. (2008). The Post-American World. W. W. Norton & Company.
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