📉 The Argentine Peso Weakens Again
In just 10 days, the peso depreciated by 6.75% against the dollar, trading at about
$1,264 per official dollar in the wholesale market. This is one of the sharpest declines
of the year and reflects growing skepticism about the economic and political stability
of the country.
At the same time, the Merval index fell by 2% weekly and lost more than 17% in dollars in
the last month, showing a clear flight of capital towards safer assets.
Presidential Veto: Message or Risk?
President Javier Milei partially vetoed the bill that increased minimum pensions. The measure was presented as a “fiscally responsible” action
in line with commitments to the IMF and the need to maintain the primary surplus.
💬 The government argues that “there is no room” for more spending.
✅ For the markets, it was a signal of economic commitment.
❌ For the opposition and social sectors, it was a provocation.
The decision divided opinions: it calmed investors but ignited political and
social tensions at a key moment.
📊 Real-Time Consequences
The repercussions did not take long to appear. Some of the immediate effects:
1. 💱 More exchange rate volatility: The gap between the official dollar and the
financial dollars (MEP, CCL) is widening, generating greater uncertainty.
2. 📈 Rising inflation: Monthly inflation is projected between 1.8% and 2.1%,
driven by the increase in the dollar and seasonal factors.
3. 💰 Pressure on reserves: The Central Bank continues to fail to accumulate net reserves
steadily. The turbulence could force it to intervene.
4. 🔁 Changes in investor appetite: Interest in short-term peso hedging instruments,
such as fixed terms or T+1 funds, is growing.
Conclusion: Crosswinds
Argentina finds itself once again at a crossroads: it needs to show fiscal order to
the IMF and the markets, but it also faces increasing social unrest and a complex
electoral agenda.
Can this delicate balance be maintained?
The October elections could be a turning point not only politically but also
economically.
We will remain vigilant. Because in Argentina, the economy never rests.
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