11/13/2024 - politics-and-society

"Between blackouts and TikToks: The electoral landscape of Ecuador for 2025"

By Naomi M Urgilés L

"Between blackouts and TikToks: The electoral landscape of Ecuador for 2025"

Photo: Freepik

Ecuador faces one of the worst energy and security crises in the region, with intensified power cuts due to drought and increasing violence marking a complex scenario for the presidential elections in February next year.  

These issues have not only altered the quality of life for Ecuadorians but have also eroded trust in institutions and consequently in democracy. This situation prompts us to raise questions about the management of campaigns and how candidates should engage in effective political communication to meet the expectations of an increasingly disenchanted population with their representatives.

In contemporary democracies, communication and social media have been fundamental parts of the metamorphosis of the political landscape, as they have displaced the traditional role of political parties and have become intermediaries between politicians and citizens.

Platforms like TikTok, Instagram, and Facebook have transformed the relationship between rulers and the ruled, serving as the bridge that allows politicians to build their legitimacy. This teledemocracy has facilitated the revitalization of politics; however, it brings the risk that image and spectacle may prevail over management capacity.

Daniel Noboa assumed the presidency on November 23, 2023, after winning the runoff of early elections resulting from the political crisis of Guillermo Lasso's government. Noboa quickly gained popularity, transitioning from a relatively unknown young politician to becoming the central political figure of the country; his unexpected victory surprised not only his opponents but also evidenced a new way of doing politics in Ecuador.

His management and communication style, however, have been a topic of debate among experts and civil society, with critics emphasizing a lack of preparation to address effective strategies for the problems affecting the Ecuadorian population. On the other hand, those who defend him argue that he has not had sufficient time in power to alleviate the burden of long-accumulated state problems.

Regardless of the reality, the mark left by Daniel Noboa will signify a before and after in the way politics is conducted in the country. His work team not only understood the importance of the media phenomenon in politics, the current role of political parties, and social media in building a leadership image, but they also listened and connected directly with young voters who are fed up with the polarization of correísmo and anti-correísmo.

This popular leader, as Cheresky once mentioned, also has a significant weakness that relies on his dependence on the fluctuations of public opinion. For this reason, following recent events, the current president's popularity has fallen, jeopardizing his chances of reelection.

Both the ruling party and correísmo lead the intention to vote in the upcoming elections according to opinion polls. Noboa will face candidate Luisa Gonzales, representing the party of former president Rafael Correa, who was previously defeated by a narrow margin; however, both have significant challenges to overcome.

The main challenge for the current president will be to demonstrate that he is capable of leading the country. He must emphasize management, trying to regain citizen trust. This must be accomplished not only by exposing the context and background of the political issues and his decisions with frankness and transparency but also by proposing real solutions that go beyond speeches and symbols.

On the other hand, the opposition has experienced political figures; however, they have not managed to connect with the modern electorate, an area where Noboa has excelled. Their primary challenge lies in communication skills, considering that partisan identity, characteristic of previous governments and elections, has lost relevance in current politics. They must focus on a direct link between politicians and citizens without resorting to populism, which involves recognizing institutions and pluralism, as well as providing responses to the most urgent demands of the population that do not necessarily involve an ideology or worldview.

With this outlook, we face the elections. Amid power outages and TikToks, candidates will not only have to channel the dissatisfaction of the Ecuadorian population regarding adversities but will also have to present concrete government plans and, above all, do the hard work of deciphering the new codes of politics that allow them to be heard and chosen to govern.

These elections are crucial for the lives of millions of Ecuadorians who have not only lost their jobs but have been deprived of their homes and families, being forced to emigrate due to insecurity and lack of opportunities. It is time for politics to regain hope and restore stability to a country that finds itself in the shadows.

Social media and communication will be fundamental in this process, but alone they will not be enough; the future of the country will depend on leadership willing to balance communication and action, demonstrating a willingness to be accountable, a commitment to transparency, but above all, being competitive and ensuring real change.

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Naomi M Urgilés L

Naomi M Urgilés L

Ecuadorian migrant advanced student of International Relations and Political Science at the University of Palermo. Passionate about political communication, I have actively participated in electoral campaigns, which has allowed me to acquire valuable tools for strategic analysis and the management of political processes.

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