Jesús Daniel Romero from Miami Strategic Intelligence Institute for Poder & Dinero and FinGurú
Introduction
Argentina is at a decisive moment. While several countries in Latin America consolidate their alignment with China through CELAC, President Javier Milei emerges as a key figure of hemispheric conservatism with his upcoming participation in CPAC Latino 2025 in Miami. Amid these external tensions, the country also faces an internal challenge: to restore order, ensure security, and create favorable conditions to attract technological and strategic investments.
Three fronts —geopolitical, ideological, and institutional— converge at a single point. The question is not only what direction Argentina will take but whether it will be able to rebuild from within to play a leading role in the new global order.
CELAC and China: a fragile, infiltrated, and strategic block
The recent summit between CELAC and China in Beijing demonstrated Beijing's determination to consolidate its influence in Latin America. However, it also exposed the structural weaknesses of the Latin American block. The lack of cohesion, mutual distrust among its members, and a growing infiltration of criminal networks and state corruption structures compromise its effectiveness as an international interlocutor.
CPAC Miami: Milei, Trump, and the new axis of freedom
In the face of this Asian offensive, the Argentine government has opted for a geopolitical reconfiguration aligned with the United States and Europe. Javier Milei's upcoming participation in CPAC Latino 2025 in Miami confirms this strategy. In that scenario, he will seek to consolidate his leadership within a new hemispheric architecture based on the values of economic freedom, institutional order, and the fight against authoritarian populism.
Milei before Congress: an Executive without legislative support
One of the main structural weaknesses of Milei's government is its limited parliamentary representation. The ruling party is in the minority in both chambers, while Kirchnerism controls the first minority in the Senate. This situation forces the president to choose between negotiating with sectors he has labeled as “the caste” or vetoing popular laws passed with cross-party support.
The recent case of the pension law is a clear example. This regulation includes increases for retirees and the possibility of moratoriums for those who have not completed their contributions. Milei has already indicated that he will veto the project if it progresses in the Senate. However, this decision carries a high political cost. More than 5.3 million retirees receive monthly benefits below 400,000 pesos. Denying them a direct benefit could further erode social support for an administration that needs to broaden its electoral base (Infobae, 2025).
Risk of strategic stagnation if legislative elections are not won
If the ruling party fails to increase its number of deputies and senators in the 2025 legislative elections, investments will not flow in. The new legislators will take office on December 10, and Milei will face his last two years in office under growing social pressure.
Without structural reforms, legislative backing, and legal guarantees, there will be no conditions for job creation or recovery of reserves. The country will continue to depend on political support from the United States —especially if Donald Trump returns to the White House— and funding from the International Monetary Fund.
In this context, the narrative of change could run out before delivering concrete results. The accumulated political capital risks dissipating into social frustration and institutional paralysis.
The Argentine diaspora in Florida and republican economic diplomacy
Florida emerges as a key geostrategic actor. There resides a large Argentine community with influence in electoral processes both in the United States and Argentina. Governor Ron DeSantis and Republican legislators can become strategic allies, facilitating trade missions, investment in energy and technology, and productive bilateral cooperation.
The United States and strategic investment in future technology
Argentina represents an ideal platform for channeling U.S. investment in key sectors of the future. With American infrastructure and capital, the country can advance in areas such as clean technologies, artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and cybersecurity, reinforcing the Western technological axis against Chinese expansion in the region.
Conclusion: a sleeping giant that can awaken
Argentina is not condemned to irrelevance or collapse. It has natural resources, human talent, and leadership that seeks to break with past structures. But its success will depend on its ability to clearly face the geopolitical threat posed by China's expansion in Latin America, consolidate a strategic alliance with the West based on tangible results, and restore internal order through sustained structural reforms.
The country stands before its last structural opportunity of this decade. The outcome will not be defined in speeches, but in the number of seats won, in the depth of implemented reforms, and in the real investment it can attract.
References
CLACSO. (2022). The lithium triangle concentrates 68% of lithium in three Latin American countries. https://www.clacso.org/en/el-triangulo-del-litio-concentra-el-68-del-litio-en-tres-paises-latinoamericanos/
Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, and Fisheries. (2021). Genetically Modified Crops. https://www.magyp.gob.ar/sitio/areas/biotecnologia/conabia/_pdf/Cultivos_GM.pdf
YPF. (2025). Vaca Muerta Challenge - Unconventional. https://desafiovacamuerta.ypf.com/
Infobae. (2025, March 19). Almost 5.4 million retirees and pensioners receive a benefit less than $400,000 per month. https://www.infobae.com/politica/2025/03/19/casi-54-millones-de-jubilados-y-pensionados-cobran-un-haber-menor-a-400-mil-por-mes/
Jesús Daniel Romero is a Retired Commander of Naval Intelligence of the United States. Co-Founder and Senior Fellow of Miami Strategic Intelligence Institute. Writer and columnist for the Diario Las Américas in Miami. A regular consultant to media (radio, television, and print) on topics of his specialty.
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