Cartels, espionage, and energy risks: The developing crisis in Latin America LATAM Watch — Daily intelligence report from MSI²

Miami Strategic Intelligence Institute for Power & Money and FinGuru

The Sinaloa Cartel strengthens its control over the port of Manzanillo, driving the fentanyl increase
A DEA report this week reveals the Sinaloa Cartel's growing control over the Mexican port of Manzanillo, a crucial hub for fentanyl precursors sent from China. The cartel has forged alliances with local drug transportation companies, taking advantage of the active trade routes of the Pacific port. Clashes with the nearby Jalisco Cartel have intensified, and recent skirmishes threaten port operations. Authorities confiscated 500 kilograms of fentanyl precursors in Manzanillo this week, but it is a drop in the ocean compared to the estimated flow.
The cartel's use of encrypted communications to coordinate with Chinese suppliers shows a growing sophistication. Corruption runs deep, and officials in Colima allegedly accept bribes to facilitate trade. The port now plays a crucial role in drug trafficking, as 70% of the fentanyl destined for the United States passes through Mexico. Violence in Colima is on the rise, with dozens of cartel-related murders reported recently. The DEA warns that the cartel's dominance could soon overwhelm the local government. This growing crisis highlights the dangerous intersection of cartel power, corruption, and global drug networks.
Implications: The Sinaloa Cartel's stronghold in Manzanillo accelerates the fentanyl crisis in the United States, undermining governance in Mexico and demanding urgent collaboration between the United States and Mexico on port security to dismantle these networks.
Source: Yahoo News
Russian cyberattack affects Petrobras in Brazil, exposing energy vulnerabilities
The Brazilian state oil company, Petrobras, recently discovered a significant data leak that compromised sensitive drilling plans in the Santos Basin. Experts point to Russian state actors as the likely culprits. The attack, featuring distinctive characteristics of the Russian GRU, targeted vital geological data for Brazil's oil production, which ranks seventh in the world. Petrobras has suspended its operations in the basin, with estimated losses of $50 million per day. Brazilian intelligence services link the leak to rising imports of Russian diesel, suggesting Moscow's intent to gain an advantage. President Lula da Silva described the incident as a "hostile act," straining trade relations between Brazil and Russia. Opposition leaders are now pressing to rethink energy alliances with Russia.
The leak has raised fears of an escalating cyberwar against the Latin American energy sector. Petrobras is collaborating with U.S. cybersecurity firms to bolster its defenses. Brazil's energy infrastructure remains highly vulnerable to this type of foreign espionage. The incident underscores the growing threat of hybrid warfare in the region.
Implications: Russian cyberespionage against Petrobras jeopardizes Brazil's energy security and economic stability, which could destabilize global oil markets and signals the need for the United States to provide robust cyber defense support to counter such interference in the region.
Source: CSIS
Venezuela's oil exports plummet due to the impact of U.S. sanctions, fueling cartel smuggling.
Venezuela's oil exports are plummeting due to new U.S. sanctions against PDVSA, following recent warnings from Trump's sanctions chief, Hurley, about the need to crack down on countries importing Venezuelan crude. The measures have driven away Chinese buyers, who accounted for 40% of the Venezuelan market, leaving 10 million barrels stranded at the Jose Terminal. PDVSA's production has fallen to just 600,000 barrels per day, further affected by Chevron's exit and infrastructure deterioration.
Maduro has accused the United States of "economic terrorism" in a fiery speech this week. Smuggling networks linked to the Cartel of the Suns are thriving, redirecting oil to black markets in the Caribbean. Protests have erupted in Caracas over fuel shortages, with inflation now reaching 180%. The economic crisis generates desperation and pushes more citizens into cartel-controlled areas. The U.S. seeks to restrict China's access to Venezuelan oil, but the sanctions inadvertently empower illicit actors. The Venezuelan energy sector is on the brink of collapse, and drug trafficking occupies that void. This growing chaos threatens to deepen the country's instability.
Implications: U.S. sanctions on Venezuela risk amplifying cartel influence and refugee flows as they further destabilize the country while complicating efforts to limit China's energy presence, necessitating a strategic rethink to avoid broader regional consequences.
Source: Bloomberg
The Key Point of the Hemisphere Today
Latin America stands at a crossroads: the Sinaloa Cartel's dominance in the Port of Manzanillo drives a sudden increase in fentanyl, Russian cyberespionage exposes Brazil's energy vulnerabilities, and U.S. sanctions on Venezuela fuel cartel smuggling amid an oil crisis. These events directly threaten the national security of the United States by intensifying drug flows, destabilizing energy markets, and amplifying foreign interference. For Rafael Marrero and MSI², the United States must act swiftly: strengthen port security with Mexico, bolster Brazil's cyber defenses, and recalibrate sanctions on Venezuela to curb cartel growth and mitigate the surge in refugees, thereby ensuring the region does not become a hotter geopolitical flashpoint.
Rafael Marrero is Founding Partner and President of the Miami Strategic Intelligence Institute, an institution with the mission of promoting stability, democracy, and prosperity in Latin America, which provides strategic intelligence and advice to both governments and businesses. His focus on policy research and consulting in key sectors generates exclusive high-caliber content designed to support decision-making in an increasingly challenging context.