The conversations between the United States and Russia in recent weeks have become almost dizzying. To the summit meeting between the leaders of the American and Russian intelligence agencies in Moscow on August 25, the visit of the Washington negotiating tandem, comprised of Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who were received by the Russian president himself, has recently been added.
Why these meetings? Possibly because Washington believes that Russia is assessing the possibility of launching an attack on a NATO country soon, with its potential target being in the Baltic region (in his book If Russia Wins. A Scenario, German expert Carlos Masala presents a hypothetical scenario about an invasion of Narva, the city located in northeastern Estonia), since, at the moment that NATO countries' military capabilities, as has been the case with the British cruise missiles "Storm Shadow," are being used by Ukraine to attack Russia, Moscow considers itself entitled to strike against any NATO country.
Moreover, the Kremlin has long believed the conditions warranting the use of weapons of mass extermination are present, as noted in the 2024 review of the Russian nuclear doctrine from 2021, which states that Russia is being attacked with conventional weapons by a country that is assisted by countries possessing nuclear weaponry (in fact, during the war, Russia has used and continues to use dual-capable missiles like the "Oréshnik" or the "Iskander-M").
Thus, the Russian perception that (European) NATO is attacking Russia through NATO has reaffirmed the possibility of a forthcoming large-scale Russian movement in the complex war board.
The United States has practically "stepped back" from providing assistance in the Russian-Ukrainian war, although through a negotiated mechanism it supplies weaponry and equipment to Euro-NATO that ends up in Ukraine for the most part. But, of course, the United States is not out of the Alliance, as it is not only the primus inter pares at the head of the Allied Supreme Command, but also maintains important bases in Europe (the Ramstein base, in the German land of Rhineland-Palatinate, is one of the largest airbases in the world), thousands of troops deployed (there are about 10,000 soldiers in Poland, the most anti-Russian country in Europe), and in five non-nuclear NATO countries, it keeps atomic weapons, with two of them, Germany and Turkey, near Russia's northwest and southwest borders, respectively.
Moreover, the "Trump doctrine," which is "Europe to its own affairs," could be set aside in light of a forthcoming North American presidency, even a Republican one, because no one thinking strategically in that country desires an international scenario of isolation that would involve a "strategic nightmare plus" for the country, meaning the major rivals of the United States—Russia, China, and Iran—strengthening their ties (as is happening today, when in Persian Gulf tensions the United States "does not win" and Iran "does not lose"), while deepening the decoupling of the United States from Europe.
Therefore, visits to Russia by high-level U.S. officials would be related to “assessing” possibilities of a cessation of hostilities in the war, undoubtedly, but above all to do what is possible to “avoid” an eventual drift in which the most uncompromising men of the power structure in Russia prevail, that is, the Security Council, the Federal Security Service, the Foreign Intelligence Service, and the Ministry of Defense (Putin is not among them), and a decision is adopted that militarily implies a "leap forward" in the war.
Alberto Hutschenreuter is PhD in International Relations. Graduate in Control and Management of Public Policies. Former associate professor of Geopolitics (ESGA). Former professor at UBA and ISEN. Contributor to national and international specialized magazines and websites. Author of the books "Russian Foreign Policy after the Cold War. Humiliation and Repair" and "Geopolitics Never Left."
Comments