21 days ago - politics-and-society

Diplomacy of Donald Trump in the Middle East

By Poder & Dinero

Diplomacy of Donald Trump in the Middle East

Jesús Daniel Romero and William Acosta for Poder & Dinero and FinGurú

The recent intervention of elected President Donald Trump and his cabinet in the conflict between Israel and Hamas has resulted in a significant ceasefire agreement and the release of hostages, marking a milestone in Middle Eastern diplomacy. This analysis delves into the achievements made, specifying the situation of the hostages, and explores how this strategy could be applied in other contexts, particularly in the pursuit of democracy in Venezuela and in the resolution of the conflict in Ukraine.

 

Achievements in Hostage Release

As part of the negotiations led by Trump, 33 hostages kidnapped by Hamas were released, including women, children, and those with serious illnesses. This fact is particularly significant given the context of violence and despair in the region. However, the situation is complex and tragic, as it has been confirmed that some hostages have lost their lives during captivity.

According to available figures, of the 33 hostages, 25 have been reported as alive and have returned to their families, while 8 have been confirmed as deceased. This breakdown reveals not only the success in the release but also the high human cost of the conflict. The loss of life underscores the urgency of negotiations and the need to establish a lasting peace framework.

 

Peace Agreement and Diplomatic Strategy

Trump's diplomatic approach was crucial in achieving the ceasefire. From the outset, Trump showed a clear intention to resolve the conflict before officially taking office. His special envoy, Steve Witkoff, became a key player in the negotiations, maintaining constant communication with influential leaders such as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Emir of Qatar, Tamim Bin Hamad Al Thani.

Witkoff, in his capacity as Trump’s representative, was able to articulate the administration's intentions and press both sides to show flexibility. His ability to identify internal fractures within Hamas, specifically the influence of Mohamed Sinwar, was crucial for understanding the group’s dynamics and facilitating negotiations. The conversation between Al Thani and Khalil al-Hayya, Hamas's political and military leader, allowed for an exploration of the motivations and weaknesses of the terrorist organization.

The peace agreement reached is a significant breakthrough, not only for Israel and Hamas but also for stability in the region. This agreement was not achieved without confrontations and disagreements. Hamas's demands, which included the release of 50 Palestinian prisoners for each Israeli hostage and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza, were points of friction in the negotiations. Israel, for its part, demanded guarantees regarding the condition of the hostages to be released and control over humanitarian access to Gaza.

The articulation of a ceasefire that addresses the needs and interests of both sides demonstrates an effective diplomatic strategy that prioritizes dialogue and cooperation. Trump's willingness to involve multiple actors, including intelligence leaders from Egypt and representatives from Hamas, reflects a comprehensive approach that seeks consensus beyond national borders. This type of diplomacy is taken seriously by the affected countries and fosters mutual respect among nations, creating an environment conducive to conflict resolution.

 

Lessons for Venezuela

The strategy employed by Trump in the Gaza conflict provides a model applicable to the crisis in Venezuela. The situation in Venezuela, marked by political repression, humanitarian crisis, and the desire for democratic change, could benefit from a similar approach of mediation and diplomatic pressure.

Establishing communication channels between Nicolás Maduro's regime and the opposition, supported by the international community, could facilitate dialogue and transition towards democracy. The experience in Gaza shows that coordinated pressure from foreign powers, along with support from allied countries, can be effective in achieving significant change.

For this to work in Venezuela, it is essential that international actors work together, establishing clear conditions and a negotiation framework that includes not only the release of political prisoners but also the holding of free and fair elections. The international community must be willing to offer incentives to the regime to facilitate this process, similar to how negotiations were handled in the Middle East.

 

Trump and the End of the War in Ukraine

In addition to his role in the Middle East, Donald Trump could also play a crucial role in seeking a solution to the conflict in Ukraine. His pragmatic approach and willingness to engage in dialogue with leaders from various nations could help reduce tensions and seek a peace agreement.

Reestablishing Dialogue Channels: Trump has the capacity to reestablish communication channels between Russia and Ukraine, as well as with other international actors. His direct style and unconventional approach could open doors that have been closed in traditional diplomacy.

Multilateral Negotiations: Trump could promote multilateral negotiations involving the United States, Russia, the European Union, and other key actors. Creating a negotiation framework that addresses the concerns of all parties could facilitate a lasting peace agreement.

Just Peace Conditions: Like in the case of Gaza, Trump could pressure both parties to reach an agreement that considers fair conditions. This could include the demilitarization of certain areas and security guarantees for Ukraine, as well as the consideration of Russia's concerns about its influence in the region.

Economic and Diplomatic Incentives: Trump could use economic and diplomatic incentives to motivate Russia to engage in a peace agreement. This could include the possibility of lifting some sanctions in exchange for a clear commitment to peace and stability in Ukraine.

 

Analysis of the Situation of Hostages in Gaza: Data and Timeline

The situation of hostages kidnapped by Hamas remains critical and complex. Below is a detailed summary of the total number of hostages, their current status, and a timeline of significant events related to their capture and release.

 

Total Hostages

Total hostages kidnapped: 251 people. 

Hostages released: 117. 

Confirmed dead hostages: 34 confirmed by the Israeli army. 

Presumably alive hostages: 60.

 

Current Status of Hostages

Alive hostages: Of the 60 hostages considered to be alive, 53 are Israelis (including at least 22 with dual nationality), 6 are Thai, and 1 is Nepali. 

Distribution of alive hostages: 

Men: 48 

Women: 10 

Children: 2 (brothers Kfir and Ariel, aged 8 months and 4 years, respectively).

Military hostages: 10 (5 men and 5 women).

Entire families: Some families, such as the Bibas, have been completely kidnapped, causing great suffering for those who have managed to free some members, leaving others behind.

 

Timeline of Key Events

October 7, 2023: Hamas carries out a massive attack in southern Israel, kidnapping 251 people, some of whom were already dead at the time of being taken to Gaza.

End of November 2023: A truce is established allowing for the release of 117 hostages, mainly women, children, and foreign workers, as well as the repatriation of approximately 40 bodies.

December 1, 2023: The truce ends, and since then, only 7 hostages have been released in Israeli army operations. The last rescued hostage was Kaid Farhan Alkadi, on August 27, 2024.

December 15, 2023: The Israeli army confirms that at least 3 hostages were accidentally killed in military operations.

As of January 15, 2024: The Israeli army estimates that 94 hostages remain in Hamas's hands, of which 34 are believed to be dead.

 

Conditions of the Hostages

The situation of the hostages is uncertain. Hamas has announced the death of some hostages, but Israel has not confirmed these reports. There are concerns about the health and wellbeing of the living hostages, as well as about the fate of those presumed dead. International pressure and diplomatic efforts continue in an attempt to secure the release of all hostages and address the humanitarian situation in Gaza.

 

Conclusion

The work of Donald Trump and his team in the release of hostages and the peace agreement in the Middle East is a clear example of how effective diplomacy can influence complex and deeply rooted conflicts. This approach has not only had an immediate impact in Gaza, but it may also serve as a model to follow in the struggle for freedom and democracy in Venezuela and in seeking a peaceful resolution to the conflict in Ukraine. The experience gained in these processes reaffirms the importance of dialogue, international cooperation, and diplomatic pressure in the search for peaceful and lasting solutions.

 

Credits

This analysis is based on information extracted from various journalistic sources, including:

The New York Times 

Jesús Romero retired after 37 years of service in the U.S. government, covering military, intelligence, and diplomatic roles. He began his career in the Navy in 1984, rising from enlisted member to Naval Intelligence Officer through the Navy's Enlisted Commissioning Program. A graduate of Norfolk State University with a degree in Political Science, Romero also completed Naval Aviation Pre-Flight Training and served in various capacities, including aboard a nuclear missile cruiser and in attack squadrons. His deployments included Libya, Bosnia, Iraq, and Somalia. The intelligence career of Romero included key assignments with the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) in Panama, the Joint Intelligence Center in Hawaii, and leading U.S. efforts to locate missing personnel in Asia. He retired from active duty in 2006, decorated with numerous medals including the Meritorious Service Medal and the Navy Commendation Medal. After his military career, Romero worked as a defense contractor for BAE Systems and Booz Allen Hamilton. He spent 15 years in civil service as an Intelligence Operations Specialist at the Department of the Army in the Southern Joint Interagency Task Force in Florida. His diplomatic roles abroad included periods in Peru, Ecuador, and Guatemala. Romero has been widely recognized, including the Joint Meritorious Civilian Service Medal from the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the Army Superior Civilian Service Medal, and multiple international awards for his contributions to anti-drug missions. Romero wrote his last book to honor his colleagues and shed light on disruptive strategies against an international criminal organization, which under his leadership significantly hindered cocaine trafficking to the United States. His efforts helped dismantle operations supporting Mexican cartels and reduced the cocaine air bridge by more than 120 tons annually.

He is the author of the Amazon best seller titled "The Final Flight: The Queen of the Air."

William Acosta is the founder and CEO of Equalizer Private Investigations & Security Services Inc. He has coordinated investigations related to international drug trafficking, money laundering, and homicides in the U.S. and other countries such as Germany, Italy, Portugal, Spain, France, England, and literally all of Latin America.

William has been a New York City Police Officer for 10 years, 2 years in the Treasury Department, and 6 years in the U.S. Army with various international deployments for communications and intelligence issues.

CAREER AND EXPERIENCE

William Acosta, veteran international investigator, coordinated multijurisdictional investigations on drug trafficking, money laundering, and homicides in the United States and other countries.

Acosta's martial arts training in taekwondo reached the 6th dan, practicing traditionally as a way of life and not just for fighting.

The transition from police to private investigation allowed Acosta to make his own rules and choose clients after more than 20 years in the profession.

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Poder & Dinero

Poder & Dinero

We are a group of professionals from various fields, passionate about learning and understanding what happens in the world, and its consequences, in order to transmit knowledge.
Sergio Berensztein, Fabián Calle, Santiago Montoya, Pedro von Eyken, José Daniel Salinardi, Leo Moumdjian, along with a distinguished group of journalists and analysts from Latin America, the United States, and Europe.

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