The treatment of the “bus law”, the government situation almost two months from taking over, the President preserves his positive image? How will you continue to rule with the internal misfits that transcend? and what will be the treatment with the governors from this new context were some of the questions raised to the political analyst Sergio Berensztein in a dialogue that maintained with EL LIBERAL.
What is the main problem this government has in these 45/50 days of management?
I think that the main problem of the government is that it still does not show an anti-inflationary strategy, partly because it cannot because it wants relative prices to stand before launching a plan, it cannot, at the same time, do not renounce dolarization and at the same time are not the conditions for dolarizing and we also do not know whether it can donate precisely by agreements with the IMF. The main force of the government is its main weakness and precisely this idea that the economy will improve will thrive this year is what believes in 44% of the population. For this, you have to lower inflation. Milei will be remembered for good or evil, it is my personal hypothesis, not so much by the depth of his proclaimed revolution, regime change, but much more by whether it is able to lower inflation or not. If there is no low inflation, it will be very difficult to advance on the rest of the agenda and there are still doubts when and how it will.
What reflection arises after these two weeks of debate of the "bus law" and its approval in general?
This debate exposed a lot of the things we knew about Argentine politics and other new ones. There was a reconfiguration of the party order in these elections. A partyless president was elected, a defeat of the two great coalitions that had ruled Argentina from 83 until the date. But it is interesting to note that both inside and outside the Congress there were many continuitys. First of all, outside the Congress the groups of always seeking to generate all kinds of disorders, paralysis, even within the Congress deputies over the whole Union by the Homeland and the Left who tried to stop the session as in December 2017 when the new formula of calculation of retirements, typical esters of a system that has not yet died for more than effectively was born this new option called Advanced Freedom.
But within, there prevailed a logic of political negotiation that is also part of the old practices, but that in this case it is positive because there was a very dogmatic position of the government. What we have seen with numerous negotiations is a ceding government. There are two ways to look at this. On the one hand, there are some people who say the government cedes and distorts the spirit of the norm. In the government, it is the opposite interpretation: They got a lot of what they got. They went for everything to get a part. Between the UND and this law, the government was able to advance what it wanted to mark a flag wherever Argentina is headed.
With the concessions that happened, is Milei's government what he designed or the "possible"?
First, we must understand that there will be new concessions in the Senate, that this does not end. Above all, by the position of some governors to want there, to co-participate the incomes of the tax Parents. This fight will continue. To the extent that the Government does not present a tax plan, a comprehensive tax reform, and as long as there is no budget, we will be in this resource proposal. It is necessary to look at this as a first step, a government strategy that has obtained much more powerful instruments, when it compares with others and gives it a room for manoeuvre in the first year to show results.
Does the government still have strong support from the citizenship that voted it?
The data we collect with the monitor show that the government still has much support. It always happens that before a triumph, there is a sector that did not vote for it from society that tends to follow and is the first sector that tends to abandon this accompaniment. It is likely that this is being given, but it remains Milei one of the best-image politicians, there remains a relative confidence in the government. I still can't see that there are blunt symptoms that the support of voters has been rescheduled in the second round to Milei.
How do you see the future of the government still with its internal misfits?
What we must understand is that all new governments have a learning curve, which have different dimensions passes through internal functioning, communication, there is a dynamic that simply corresponds to the President, another to the way the government operates. When they are former governors or people who have had some management experience is usually easier. In the case of Milei he tends to close in a very intimate circle. It is the first steps of a newly arrived government, which faces a very acute crisis and which is also seen as transformational, with a vocation to install a new political economic regime and this necessarily requires time until a dynamic of internal functioning is established. In the interin there are always lanes, pujas by power, is normal in politics everywhere.
José Aranda
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