Europe on Alert: What World Awaits Us After the Exodus from the Middle East and Africa?

Palestinian Demonstrations in Central London, England

INTRODUCTION

Today, Europe is continuously being battered by multiple waves of migration coming from both the Middle East and Africa, primarily due to conflicts, economic crises, or persecutions suffered in the migrant's country of origin. However, one must not confuse this phenomenon as novel in the "Old Continent," since approximately since 2013, European countries have been exposed to receiving massive waves of migrants from various parts of the globe. In light of this fact, we can observe various reactions from the actors involved, aimed at alleviating or reducing the impact of this torrent of migrants. The cultural, social, and political implications generated by migrations from these areas are considerable and are the subject of discussion in the international realm.

That is why throughout this article, I will attempt to provide the best possible answer to the following question: What awaits Europe in the next decade as a result of this phenomenon? To answer this question, it is necessary to describe the current migratory situation and how Europe reacts from both sides.

African Migrations 

Currently, the African continent is infested from pole to pole by various non-democratic regimes (with some exceptions), which limits its population's access to basic human rights, among other things. This, combined with the present economic and social malaise in these countries, are the main generators of migratory incentives for their inhabitants. In the face of crises of this nature, African inhabitants flee their countries in search of a better life in the European continent, regardless of the fact that their own lives are at stake in doing so. These migrants are mostly illegal as they use maritime routes to reach the coveted destination without being registered. African citizens escape making use of precarious boats or other rented means of transport to face the furious currents of the Mediterranean Sea, which, as expected, culminates in accidents, disappearances, or even death itself. To give an idea, between the year 2014 and 2021, approximately 17,000 deaths of illegal migrants from the African continent were recorded in maritime areas (about 2,500 deaths per year). As a reference, the maximum number of migrants from Africa to Europe occurred in 2016 with approximately 180,000 civilians, of which 5,000 died or disappeared, meaning 1 in 35 migrants does not reach the final destination. They aim to reach the European territory closest to their continent of origin, which are islands located in the Mediterranean Sea, more precisely the Canary Islands (Spain), Lampedusa (Italy), and Dodecanese (Greece), among others. It is here that collisions begin between Africans and the Western European world. The island of Lampedusa is the most affected by migratory flows, receiving nearly five times its population in African immigrants. The island has about 6,000 inhabitants and receives approximately 30,000 immigrants annually (with variations depending on the year), which greatly affects not only the infrastructure of the archipelago but also fuels the widespread discontent of its population.

An interesting fact is that the current Italian president, Giorgia Meloni, campaigned alongside the inhabitants of this island, and today, already in power, has taken very restrictive measures for immigrants. For example, in 2023, the Prime Minister promoted measures that limit the actions of NGOs that rescue illegal immigrants in the Mediterranean Sea and measures that expedite deportations.

Giorgia Meloni and Ursula Von der Leyen visit the island of Lampedusa, Italy.

Middle Eastern Migrations

Migration from Africa is significant, but it does not match the massive and sudden waves received by the West from the eastern part of the European continent. It is estimated that in 2015 alone, approximately 1.3 million citizens from the Middle East migrated to Europe. However, in 2010, only about 40,000 were recorded, highlighting that migrations from the East manifest in extremely pronounced migratory peaks, unlike African migrations, which occur in a much less abrupt manner.

Hungary and Greece are the countries that receive the most migrants due to their proximity to this part of the globe, receiving large migratory loads annually. Both countries express constant discomfort at the excessive presence of immigrants within their territories, as in Greece and Hungary, immigration represents a considerable population percentage at 12.55% and 7%, respectively. Viktor Orban, Prime Minister of Hungary since 2010, has pushed a series of regulations that affect both immigrants about to enter the country and those already residing, arguing that the excessive presence of these threatens both their society and culture as a nation. These reforms included the construction of a massive border fence and the tightening of asylum laws, making it harder for migrants to obtain international protection in Hungary.

Hungarian border fence under construction

Cultural Clash: Social and Political Consequences of Immigration

It is in this context where, in my view, the triggering aspect of all the problems Europe faces regarding immigration appears: The cultural collision. This clash of cultures or also called "Clash of Civilizations" in English is reflected in the atom of every European society by the daily frictions and different types of conflicts that generate consequences for both parties. Immigrants are victims of xenophobia and discrimination by the local population, not to mention the repressive measures they suffer in some European countries, as mentioned earlier. However, they are not the only victims, as for local citizens, the so-called “Identity Crisis” is a recurring issue and occurs when their local cultural identities are threatened by external influences (in this case, the presence of immigrants from very contrasting cultures). This social and cultural collision often escalates, depending on the country, to the extent that political mobilizations emerge from both Afro-descendant and Muslim or Islamic communities driven by political personalities aligned with the traditions and cultures of their countries of origin. These customs are absolutely incompatible with the Western perception of certain central topics such as women's rights and the universality of religion, among many others. The problem arises, as these political figures not only consolidate themselves but also gain significant relevance in the political sphere. Just a few months ago, the results of the English municipal elections were announced, in which Islamism had a resounding success compared to past elections, winning 9 mayoralties including none other than the mayoralty of London, Birmingham, Leeds, among others.

Continuing a bit more with this case, the latest census indicates that 17% of the English population is foreign and 6.5% belongs to Islam, thus making these political candidates representative and politically stable since they promote ways of thinking or customs endorsed by that electorate. I attach a phrase said by Mothin Ali, councilor of the city of Leeds: “We will not be silenced. We will raise the voice of Gaza. We will raise the voice of Palestine. Allahu Akbar!” Here, we can undoubtedly observe a thought with clear Eastern tones as it refers to a conflict in which England took a pro-Israel stance (like many Western countries), a stance which is completely opposed to what Ali expressed. We are talking about almost 4 million people who not only support but fervently campaign for this kind of political candidates, thus giving them considerable weight in the political arena as we have seen before.

Mothin Ali at Pro-Palestinian demonstrations

 How are international organizations reacting?

Moving to the international realm, we observe somewhat controversial behavior from the European Union. When facing hundreds of thousands or sometimes millions of immigrants annually, the president of the European Union committee, Ursula von der Leyen, has decided to negotiate with some African governments along the Mediterranean Sea. The controversy arises due to the bad reputation of these states, as they express themselves openly as autocratic states. The pacts are based on a massive economic and humanitarian contribution from the European Union to these African countries with the aim that they improve their respective maritime border controls to limit mass migration. However, these agreements did not have the desired effect, generating, on the contrary, a sort of blackmail from the latter to the former, articulating certain events to, in a way, extort the European Union for more funds. These funds are diverted by the African and Eastern states to promote state-related issues, usually associated with military power. For example, at the beginning of 2020, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan requested help from the European Union and NATO for support in his military operations in Syria, his neighboring country. It should be noted that Turkey has the largest number of Syrian refugees (3.6 million) and agreed with European international organizations to receive financial and humanitarian support in exchange for retaining these migrants within Turkish territory. However, when Erdogan requested both NATO and the European Union, financial support for Turkey, all he received from them was complete inaction. It is for this last reason that in response to this inaction, Erdogan ordered the borders with Greece to be opened, releasing approximately 50,000 migrants into European territory, severely compromising European border controls.

Turkish refugees at the Greece border

 Stances within Europe 

To respond to this question, it is also necessary to analyze the stances taken by the main European countries in response to this migratory wave. On the Spanish side, we can see a clear willingness to receive African immigrants. In just the first two months of the current year, Spain received about 18,000 immigrants from Africa, a figure that does not stop increasing, as by mid-year, almost 27,000 new immigrants were recorded. From the Spanish government, we observe a clear incentive for African citizens to migrate to Spanish territory, as just a few weeks ago, Spanish President Pedro Sánchez implemented a new labor migration program to facilitate hiring from countries like Mauritania, Gambia, Senegal, etc.

Turning to the German context, we can also see clear support for immigrants in the public scenario, witnessing massive protests in favor of immigration and against the far-right. For example, at the beginning of this year, nearly 250,000 people mobilized across Germany against the far-right and in defense of the immigrant. The German government, for its part, seeks to further facilitate citizenship processes to increase the arrival of Africans and Easterners, among others.

However, there are also countries that seek to reduce this migratory flow by tightening their laws. This is the case of Italy or France, countries experiencing a massive rise of the far-right with the emergence of personalities such as Giorgia Meloni or Marine Le Pen.

Demonstrations in Germany against the far-right and anti-immigration measures

Conclusions

Once we have reached this point, we can now determine a potential response to the mystery previously posed and to the issue raised at the beginning of the article. Ultimately, we are clearly visualizing a phenomenon that adds to a long list of problems currently facing the European continent. In this case, we can see Europe in a state of "shock" from the various migratory blows it receives year after year, reacting to them with inefficient and controversial measures that only further damage the reputation of the "Old Continent." If we observe at the country level, we can perceive a wide variety of stances as already noted.

Within a short time, both the social and political landscape of Europe will be mostly inhabited by immigrants from Africa and the Middle East, thanks to the permissiveness of the democracy present in the West and its absence to a greater or lesser extent in the East and Africa. Due to this, immigrants can represent their ideals in political parties or candidates that, due to the exponential growth of the immigrant population, gain superlative importance. In summary, we can conclude that it is not at all illogical to think of a Muslim and Afro-descendant Europe in the not-so-distant future. It is not a question of whether it will happen or not, but when and how native Europeans manage this inevitable change.