Source: CELAG

Cristina returns to the center: the prison that reorders Peronism

Following the announcement from the Supreme Court rejecting the extraordinary appeal filed by former president Cristina Kirchner, rivers of ink have been written to analyze the winners and losers of this new scenario.

However, what is clear is that Cristina Kirchner has returned to a centrality that today seems indisputable. After months of tensions with Governor Axel Kicillof, which included the struggle for the presidency of the PJ and the definition of the electoral calendar, it now seems quite fanciful to challenge the widow of Kirchner for the mystique of the spotlight.

She skillfully manages that center, to the point that two days after the announcement, television channel hosts were furious to see her dancing on the balcony of her home in Constitución. Thus, all those who at some point popped their heads up intending to discipline the former president now wander through the corridors of her apartment trying to become part of her inner circle again. Ivan Shagrodsky mentioned in Cenital how Axel Kicillof was not received by anyone in his attempt to approach Cristina Kirchner on her first night with the militancy.

“The men of Peronism will take care of her,” affirmed Guillermo Moreno, in a gesture that seeks to close ranks around Cristina Kirchner's figure. Referring to the internal conflicts of Peronism, where he often criticizes a sector of progressivism associated with Kirchnerism, he added bluntly: “Cristina has an exclusive opinion: you accept it or you leave.”

Even political left figures, from Myriam Bregman to Nicolás del Caño, approached the former president's home in solidarity.

However, the clear winner of this ruling is neither Javier Milei's government nor Cristina Kirchner. It is Mauricio Macri.

The Engineer's return: between the PRO's failure and silent revenge

The Engineer comes from a devastating defeat in the City of Buenos Aires, where, returning to apply the same recipe as in 2023, he attempted to position himself as the reference point for a “rational” right in the face of the government's radicalization. With a predictable, technocratic discourse devoid of epic, he tried to repeat the script that failed just a year ago: to present himself as the responsible adult. At the same time, the former president repeated the old script of confronting Larreta, his eternal wayward protégé, with a female candidate, carefully constructed to combine loyalty and renewal.

The result was, as we all observed, another failure for the PRO, as disastrous as that of 2023, with a lamentable performance in its own district. The party that ruled the city for 16 years with an aesthetic of efficiency and joy now appears faded, sad, with recycled candidacies and no direction.

In that vacuum, President Milei moves without restrictions. He took advantage of the downfall of his former benefactor to advance, without shame or glory, in absorbing the “rational” right electorate. With a disruptive narrative, an aesthetic of permanent war and an ascending symbolic capital, Milei understood that, in this new board, moderation does not entice and institutionalism does not mobilize. Voters who prefer order seem to favor chaos with conviction over a gray management without narrative.

However, as journalist Iván Schargrodsky does not tire of repeating, the Engineer knows how to be vindictive when necessary. He does not forget, he does not forgive, and (above all) he never entirely backs down. Macrismo may be down, but its founder retains a powerful asset: a network of judicial ties and operators that could be activated strongly if circumstances warrant it. In Argentine politics, nothing dies completely. Especially not a former president with a thirst for revenge.

Source: Infobae

Cristina Kirchner's prison generated exactly what the government aimed to avoid: the return of the former president to the center of political life. The image that quickly circulated: Grabois, Massa, Moreno, and Máximo Kirchner together in the same act of support summarizes the magnitude of the problem. Instead of dissolving Peronism in its internal labyrinth, the judicial measure symbolically restructured it around its most significant figure, awakening a dormant mystique and forcing actors who until recently were disputing among themselves.

In communicational terms, the government also loses a key piece of its narrative. Without Cristina in the electoral offer, the possibility of confronting her directly through the already worn-out slogan of “Kirchnerism or freedom” fades. The binary narrative that yielded such good results in the campaign enters into crisis when even non-Kirchnerist sectors and some critics join the defense in the name of the rule of law or institutional balance. The Kirchnerism that functioned as a ghost now risks reappearing.

This entire scenario forces the government to deeply rethink its political strategy. The attempt to close the Kirchnerist cycle through the courts not only failed to achieve its goal, but may also be sowing the conditions for an unexpected re-organization of the opposition front. Cristina, imprisoned, returns to reorder.

Finally, Macri puts Milei in the worst possible situation: facing a united Peronism in its historical bastion. What could have been a comfortable victory against a fragmented movement becomes an uphill battle that forces him to play on foreign turf and without the preferred enemy at hand.

In that context, the failure would not only be of the government: Macri will ensure it also serves as a warning signal. A way to demonstrate that without his leadership, the right becomes disordered, wears out, and loses. And, in passing, to position himself as a necessary mentor, as an available adult in the face of a libertarian experience that may begin to show fatigue.

Thus, while Milei is taking risks in the backlot, the Engineer waits. With the calculator in hand and revenge in sight.