12/30/2024 - politics-and-society

German crossroads: from Olaf Scholz to Viktor Klima, passing through Elon Musk

By Poder & Dinero

German crossroads: from Olaf Scholz to Viktor Klima, passing through Elon Musk

Pedro Von Eyken for Poder & Dinero and FinGurú

One of the newspapers I read most while living in Germany (1986-1991 and 1993-1998) was Die Welt, which has a conservative or center-right orientation. On Sundays, this print medium from the Axel Springer conglomerate is called Welt am Sonntag, although it is published on Saturdays. In the edition of Saturday, December 28, a column by American magnate Elon Musk appeared, which must have raised the hackles of many Germans at a very sensitive political and economic moment.

 

The magnate noted in his writing that the far-right party Alternative für Deutschland (Alternative for Germany or AfD) "is the last ray of hope for this country." Musk praises the AfD's controlled immigration policy, its economic goals of tax reduction, and market deregulation. The businessman directly supports the elected president of the United States, Donald Trump, who will assume his second term on January 20.

 

For the average German interested in their country and the world, who has the political culture to distinguish between right and far-right, and knows what happened in their country between 1933 and 1945, Musk's statements come across as as unpleasant and undesirable as the AfD. Nevertheless, they serve as an introduction and trigger for this article. I anticipated the opportune moment, a time closer to the upcoming early federal elections on February 23, 2025, following the dissolution of the Bundestag by Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier. I jumped the gun a bit, and here it is.

 

On the 16th of this month, social democratic Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz lost a vote of confidence after finance minister Christian Lindner, a liberal and partner in the ruling coalition, resigned over irreconcilable differences regarding tax allocation, economic stimulus measures, and investment financing. The stagnation observed in 2024, largely caused by the end of cheap Russian gas and the political instability in France, raises doubts about Europe's ability to keep pace with the United States, especially in light of the uncertain future of the war in Ukraine with Trump’s return to power in the U.S. The eurozone is expected to see its GDP grow by less than 1%, and 2025 looms with the shadows of geopolitics. In 2024, the economy of the leading European power reached the brink of recession, and it is not expected to escape stagnation during the coming year.

 

What could be a possible scenario, from a bird's eye view, vis-à-vis the war? If Trump decided to withdraw his support for Ukraine and the war against Russia continued to be sustained by Europe, it would be forced to bear the defense costs alone in support of Ukraine. Among the Eurozone, Germany is the country that allocates the most resources to militarily support that country. With limited budgetary resources, the money earmarked to support Ukraine could reduce the funds available for purposes such as social assistance and employment stimulation. The decline of the German economy complicates matters in a country that largely produces for export, and this has a very negative impact on employment.

 

For this reason, some observers believe that many voters could be tempted to support the far-right AfD but also the far-left of the newly emerged Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW).

 

For now, the AfD is being closely monitored by the intelligence of the German Office for the Protection of the Constitution, since the Basic Law prohibits the emergence of extremist parties due to the aftermath of Nazism. One of the electoral forecasts indicates that the AfD will significantly increase the number of votes due to economic stagnation and rising immigration, which could lead it to a possible coalition government, rejected by the major parties, the Christian democracy of the CDU of Adenauer, Kohl, and Merkel, as well as the social democracy of the SPD of Brandt, Schmidt, and Scholz. The AfD, seen as anti-European, anti-immigration, anti-Semitic, and anti-Islamic, opposes the continuation of support for Ukraine in the war with Russia.

 

However, it is most likely that the CDU, now led by Friedrich Merz, will garner more votes than the current Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz's SPD and lead a Grand Coalition with Scholz. At one point, Angela Merkel also governed Germany in a Grand Coalition.

 

Everything corresponds, for now, to the realm of conjectures. The one leading to an undesired coalition with the far-right AfD reminds me of the attitude of the former Federal Chancellor of Austria, Viktor Klima, a social democrat I personally know. Klima governed Austria from 1997 to 1999, was vice president of the Socialist International, and for a time held the presidency of the European Union. After the 1999 elections, Klima resigned and was succeeded by Wolfgang Schüssel's People's Party, which formed a coalition government with the Freedom Party (neo-Nazi). Klima had firmly rejected the possibility of an alliance with that party. He accepted the position of President of Volkswagen Argentina, facilitated by his German social democratic friends. From Austrian Federal Chancellor, this skilled negotiator and conciliator transitioned to working daily in the General Pacheco factory. In 2000, he arrived in Argentina and now lives, already retired, in the northern area of Greater Buenos Aires.

 

Klima's decision was singular and uncommon among high-flying politicians, but it remains interesting in the face of crossroads like the one Germany will soon experience.

Pedro Von Eyken holds a PhD in Political Science from the Universidad Católica Argentina (UCA) and is a political scientist. As a member of the Argentine Foreign Service, he served as Consul in Finland and in the city of Hamburg, Germany, where he was also Business Adviser at the Embassy.

As Chargé d'Affaires, he led the Argentine Embassy in Cuba and was Ambassador to Haiti.

Pedro has written two very interesting books that reflect his personal experiences, analysis, and conclusions regarding the political, economic, and social realities of these two countries over the past two decades. The first, titled "Witness to a Betrayed Revolution," contains a deep analysis of the lies of the Castro revolution in Cuba, after traveling the country from end to end. The next and more recent one addresses the humanitarian catastrophe that Haiti represents, in the face of the indifference of the international political community, titled "Haiti, Between Silence and Hunger," and is also based on the author’s personal experiences in a country ravaged by chaos and violence.

Do you want to validate this article?

By validating, you are certifying that the published information is correct, helping us fight against misinformation.

Validated by 0 users
Poder & Dinero

Poder & Dinero

We are a group of professionals from various fields, passionate about learning and understanding what happens in the world, and its consequences, in order to transmit knowledge.
Sergio Berensztein, Fabián Calle, Santiago Montoya, Pedro von Eyken, José Daniel Salinardi, Leo Moumdjian, along with a distinguished group of journalists and analysts from Latin America, the United States, and Europe.

YoutubeInstagram

Total Views: 47

Comments