Jesús Daniel Romero from Miami Strategic Intelligence Institute (MSI2) for FinGurú
I. Introduction: the captured state
Guatemala does not simply suffer from porous borders; its State has been captured by networks of corruption embedded at the highest levels of power. Institutional capture has turned ports, customs, prosecutor's offices, and even the Ministry of Defense itself into platforms for criminal and foreign interests. The consequence is visible in the large cocaine seizures abroad that, time and again, originate from Guatemalan territory.
Even more seriously, intelligence sources indicate that high-ranking officials, including the Minister of Defense himself, may be involved in operations selling strategic properties to shell companies linked to the Chinese Communist Party. In this context, organized crime and foreign interests not only operate with impunity but seem to be dictating the true state policies.
II. Massive shipments originating from Guatemalan ports
In December 2024, authorities in the Dominican Republic seized 9.8 tons of cocaine in a banana container that had departed from Puerto Barrios, Guatemala, destined for Belgium. Chiquita Guatemala confirmed that the container was scanned without anomalies when it left, and the Guatemalan government asserted that the drug was introduced in the Dominican Republic.
In June 2025, Spain confiscated 1,190 kg of cocaine in 14 containers from Guatemala, camouflaged among recycled cardboard. Operation “Shuko” was the largest seizure of this kind in two decades.
In the United States, CBP intercepted nearly 13 kg of cocaine dissolved in chocolate powder and over 100 kg hidden in fresh fruits from Guatemala. In each case, the drug passed through Guatemalan customs undetected.
III. Vulnerable borders, surrendered ports
In 2024, Guatemala reported domestic seizures of 18.2 tons, a 264% increase compared to 2023. However, the largest seizures occur outside the country, revealing significant failures, or complicity, in Guatemalan customs controls.
IV. A minister under suspicion
Confidential sources indicate that the Minister of Defense is promoting the sale of strategic military properties to companies linked to the Chinese Communist Party, using covert administrative favors. Among the assets mentioned are logistical centers and lands near ports and borders.
V. Co-opted prosecutor's office, neutralized justice
The Attorney General Consuelo Porras has been sanctioned by the United States for obstructing anti-corruption investigations. Under her management, the Public Ministry has pursued honest prosecutors, independent judges, and journalists such as José Rubén Zamora, ensuring impunity for the highest levels of power, including any investigation into the Ministry of Defense.
VI. Silences that betray
The most revealing aspect of the crisis is not what is said but what is not said. The president of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum, has not met with President Bernardo Arévalo following the border shooting in La Mesilla. The Minister of Defense was also notably absent during former ambassador Christopher Landau's visit.
Even more revealing was his absence during the presidential tour to Taiwan from June 5 to 8, 2025. President Arévalo visited Taipei accompanied by the ministers of Foreign Affairs and Economy, with no report of the presence of the Defense Minister in the official delegation.
Instead of reaffirming sovereignty during a trip of high geopolitical symbolism, the Defense Minister chose absence, deepening suspicions about his lack of institutional alignment and possible personal interests.
While cartels cross borders with impunity and the strategic properties of the State are negotiated in silence, those responsible for defending sovereignty remain behind empty gestures and simulated agendas.
These silences are not diplomacy. They are complicity.
VII. Conclusion: it does not matter how many diplomatic visits arrive
Despite the arrival of high-level delegations from the United States –secretaries, undersecretaries, and State Department officials– corruption has not been stopped nor has the pact of impunity between customs and the Ministry of Defense been broken.
As long as corruption continues to prevail, Guatemala will not be able to safeguard its borders, guarantee its sovereignty, or dissociate itself from international drug trafficking.
References
Agencia EFE. (2025, May 26). Bernardo Arévalo will visit Taiwan and Japan in June to strengthen bilateral relations [Article]. Destino Panamá.
Arévalo, B. (2025, June 2). President Arévalo of Guatemala begins tour of Taiwan and Japan seeking investments and tourism [Article]. ContextoHN.
Prensa Libre. (2025, June 4). Bernardo Arévalo arrives in Taiwan to meet with President William Lai and sign a cooperation letter.
Prensa Libre. (2025, June 6). China reacts after Arévalo's visit to Taiwan and urges Guatemala to make the right decision soon.
Jesús Daniel Romero is a Retired Commander of Naval Intelligence in the United States and has also fulfilled distinguished diplomatic missions for his country.
He has led inter-agency teams in complex investigations regarding the activities of drug trafficking cartels in Central America.
He is a Co-Founder and Senior Fellow at Miami Strategic Intelligence Institute, and as an author, his book “Final Flight: The Queen of Air” has become a bestseller on Amazon. He is currently writing a trilogy of books that include themes such as the Aragua Train, narcostates, and the various strategies that traffickers use to move their loads.
Jesús is a frequent consultant on topics of his specialty by the media in the state of Florida, and is a columnist for the Diario Las Américas in the city of Miami.
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