Jesús Daniel Romero for Poder & Dinero and FinGurú
Executive Summary
The socialist experiment in Latin America is crumbling under the weight of economic failure, criminal capture, and failed external alliances. What remains is a network of regimes that are not upheld by their ideological purity or productivity, but by drug trafficking, arms smuggling, and foreign complacency. Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua are artificially sustained regimes—maintained by symbolic associations, weak democracies, and narco-funding.
Cuba: Socialism in Intensive Care, Sustained by Illusion
No country exemplifies the terminal phase of 21st-century socialism more clearly than Cuba. The economy is collapsed, the infrastructure failing, and its people face daily blackouts, food shortages, and repression. Nevertheless, the regime survives—not through reforms, but through repression, propaganda, and political lifelines provided by external actors.
President Miguel Díaz-Canel travels the world in luxury—attending summits, dining with dictators, and flying in comfort. But at each stop, he extends his hand: seeking aid, oil, debt relief, or credit relief. It is a regime wrapped in Marxist rhetoric that survives thanks to the charity of authoritarian sympathizers and geopolitical appeasers.
The most dangerous enabler is not China or Russia, but the European Union. Brussels continues to fund development programs, “human rights dialogues,” and cooperation agreements that do not curb the regime's abuses. European trade and investment flow into Cuban tourism and biotechnology sectors—controlled by the armed forces and intelligence services.
Meanwhile, China offers surveillance and debt, not recovery. Russia offers symbolism, not infrastructure. BRICS and CELAC provide podiums, not solutions. Mexico discreetly ships oil, filling the void left by Venezuela’s collapse.
Cuba is a hurricane away from catastrophe, and a ship away from a national blackout. Its socialism is performative; its survival, completely external.
Haiti and Ecuador: Case Studies of Narco-State Collapse
Haiti is a failed state reconfigured by Colombian and Venezuelan cartels as a transit point for cocaine to the U.S. Its state collapse has created ideal conditions for criminal networks. Ecuador nearly followed the same path, as the Eastern Pacific region became the preferred route to Europe, attracting violent competition that almost destabilized the country.
Venezuela: Geopolitical Freefall
The fall of Venezuela is no longer a slow collapse—it is a geopolitical freefall. Although Maduro's regime projects regional influence through cocaine-fueled proxies and intelligence networks, its economic foundations are irreparably destroyed.
Maduro's attempts to attract investments from China and Russia have failed. Both powers offer rhetorical support but refuse to invest in a sanctioned, corrupt country with an inoperable oil infrastructure.
Despite efforts to restart oil production and stabilize the bolívar, inflation continues, state salaries are insignificant, and food and medicine shortages persist.
U.S. sanctions under the current administration have had an immediate and paralyzing effect—disrupting oil sales, gold trafficking, and the use of financial intermediaries.
In light of a stricter global posture towards China, it is even less likely that Venezuela will receive new avenues for illicit financing. Today, Venezuela is a narco-state without a sustainable economy—it operates as a geopolitical irritant, not as a nation.
Petro and the Delusion of Narco-Socialism
Under Gustavo Petro, Colombia has recorded historic highs in coca cultivation. His pacifist rhetoric and abandonment of eradication have empowered drug traffickers. His closeness to Maduro and distancing from democratic allies have left Colombia more unstable and diplomatically isolated.
Interlude: Cocaine is the Fuel of 21st Century Socialism
Cocaine has replaced ideology as the engine of Latin American socialism. The Cartel of the Suns finances the Venezuelan regime. Cuba provides intelligence and logistics. Colombia, under Petro, leads global production. The result is not socialism—it is criminalized authoritarianism wrapped in revolutionary language.
Strategic Enablers: Mexico's Fragility and Brazil's Illusion
Mexico, under Claudia Sheinbaum, has become a passive conduit for cocaine to the U.S. and a supplier of oil to Cuba. Brazil, for its part, maintains a merely symbolic drug war—its borders remain porous, and criminal flows uninterrupted.
BRICS and CELAC have proven to be paper alliances. BRICS has not provided real financial relief, infrastructure development, or security cooperation to its socialist members. CELAC has not produced applicable resolutions or coordinated policies—only speeches and ideological postures.
Lula da Silva, once hailed as a pragmatic leader, has failed to translate his political capital into economic results or effective regional leadership.
Brazil and Lula: Internal Paralysis and International Disappointment
Since 2023, Lula's government has:
● Paralyzed key economic reforms.
● Increased the tax burden and regulation, deterring private investment.
● Allowed the growth of the fiscal deficit and inflation.
Despite state subsidies and social rhetoric, foreign direct investment has decreased, and major infrastructure projects remain stalled.
On the global stage, Lula has sought to position himself as a voice of the Global South, but with little success:
● His proposal for a BRICS currency was ignored.
● His attempts to mediate global conflicts have been viewed as naive.
● Brazil remains a minor partner in the bloc, without real influence.
Strategic Recommendations for the U.S.
Target the narco-state nexus: Expand sanctions under the Magnitsky Act and Kingpin Act to criminal structures protected by the state.
Launch a Hemispheric Anti-Drug Task Force: Coordinate intelligence, diplomacy, and operations with democratic allies.
Interrupt the regime's lifelines: Pressure Mexico to stop oil shipments to Cuba and strengthen maritime interdiction.
Reinforce fragile democracies: Provide institutional support to Ecuador, Panama, and the Dominican Republic.
Lead a campaign of diplomatic isolation: Use the OAS and regional coalitions to delegitimize Maduro, Díaz-Canel, and Ortega.
Final Word
The United States must act decisively to rescue democracy from the control of criminals, hitmen, and authoritarian regimes. This is no longer just a regional issue—it is a matter of national security. Inaction is surrender. Only a strategy based on pressure, vision, and principles can pave the way towards hemispheric recovery.
References
AP News. (2022, September 30). Hurricane Ian Leaves Cuba Without Electricity: “It Was Apocalyptic.” https://apnews.com/article/15fc4a422c798800c0f07a2c48dd5fff
Financial Times. (2024, July 15). Hurricane Oscar Floods Cuban Communities. https://www.ft.com/content/5c18e729-f150-4e01-9395-4f831799367c
Reuters. (2025, May 8). Russia Promises to Invest One Billion Dollars in Cuba Before 2030. https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-promises-invest-1-billion-ally-cuba-by-2030-2025-05-08/
World Energy News. (2025). Pemex Increases Its Crude Exports to Cuba by 20% in 2024. https://www.worldenergynews.com/news/mexico-pemex-increased-crude-exports-cuba-2024-760883
United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC). (2024). World Drug Report 2024. https://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/data-and-analysis/wdr2024.html
U.S. Department of Justice, Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA). (2024). National Drug Threat Assessment 2023. https://www.dea.gov/sites/default/files/2024-03/DIR-003-24_2023-NDTA.pdf
InsightCrime. (2024). Eastern Pacific Route: Ecuador as a Gateway to Europe for Cocaine. https://insightcrime.org/news/2024-eastern-pacific-cocaine-route
U.S. Department of the Treasury — Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). (2024). The Treasury Sanctions the “Cartel of the Suns” Under the Foreign Narcotics Kingpin Designation Act. https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1234
Jesús Daniel Romero is a Retired Commander of Naval Intelligence in the United States. Co-founder and Senior Fellow at the Miami Strategic Intelligence Institute and author of the Amazon bestseller "Final Flight: The Queen of Air" and is currently writing a new trilogy on transnational crimes in Latin America.
A permanent consultant on issues of his specialty in major media in the state of Florida. He has also had a distinguished role in diplomatic and military tasks and has conducted investigations on drug trafficking in Central America.
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