It is clear that Javier Milei’s campaign strategy from its irruption in the media scene to PASO was a success, as it was a “outsider” of Argentine politics to create one of the main political forces in less than 3 years. This strategy was based on making proposals with high ideological content and far from the classical center proposals that characterized the Argentine political paradigm, and as a result captivate an electorate who did not feel represented by the traditional options. Through this particular campaign tactic, the “Leão” managed to get a sorpressive – then – 29.86% of the votes in PASO and thus rise as the most favorite of the October general election.
Milei's positioning at the most candidate to take the first place in the October presidential elections was a fact, even came to speculate with a possible first round triumph, since a possible growth in the face of these suffrages was projected. However, contrary to what was expected “Advanced Freedom” (LLA) maintained its electoral base, but with almost zero growth, obtaining a disappointing (data the expectations) 29,98%, positioning the libertarian party second to 7 points of the winner, Sérgio Massa, and sentencing a Balota between these two candidates to define who will be the next president of the republic.
What happened to Milei that limited his growth?In the face of this situation of zero growth between the generals and the PASOs, the question arises which were the reasons that caused this outcome. From my point of view, there is a clear factor that had influence in these results, the campaign strategy. That is, that strategy that was so fruitful and put the so-called “heaven forces” in the mainstream of national policy in the face of PASO, has now proposed an unexpected setback in the generals.
The reason why I blame the campaign strategy as great responsible for the non-growth of the electorate of Javier Milei, rests in that contrary to the expected, the LLA party, seeing itself as the highest candidate for the presidency after the primary elections, rather than tempering its speech and attracting potential voters from other parties, decided to further radicalize its speech with proposals of high political risk (Of course, that of Mrs. Lila Lemoine). This action of the party led by the libertarian economist was against all political tradition, and, above all, did not fulfill the premises of the known in the political sphere as “Theorema of Baglini”.
When speaking of the “Theorema of Baglini” in Argentina refers to a concept that historically supports the degree of responsibility of the proposals of an Argentine political party or leader is directly proportional to its possibilities of access to power[1]. That is, the farther from power, the more irresponsible the political statements are; the closer the power is, the more wise and reasonable they become.
Thus, given the political and discursive tradition in electoral times of Argentina, it could be outlined that this idea of Javier Milei of keeping a boned tone in his statements and that of his party was one of the main causes of why his electoral stagnation. What presents you with a scenario that should correct face to the Balotagem this November if you want to make the presidential band.
Faced with the Balotage: Abraza “The Baglini theorem”?In addition to the personal opinions that each one may have, of course, Javier Milei, after the October general election and in the face of the ballooning, completely changed his discursive strategy. This can be reflected in which, contrary to what happened in the previous elections, the economist and the members of the LLA have moderated their speech and their political position, did more than “center”.
The clear example of this process of moderating against the November elections can be observed in the so-called “Leão” on Instagram and in other means where it clarified that, under its mandate, health and education would remain public, just as denied the disappearance of social plans, leaving in evidence a much more conciliatory position and “Catch all” (after all) by Milei and his party.
On the other hand, the libertarian team following this chain of moderate actions called the approximation of parts with other parties and political figures with which enmity was shown, as are Mauricio Macri and Patricia Bullrich.
In conclusion, it is evidenced that the paradigm shift of Javier Milei's party against the Balota is clear, and it now seems that the libertarian team, when it is closer than ever to power, clings to the “Theorem of Baglini” to try to consecrate itself as winner of the November elections. From my point of view, the panorama for these suffrages is open, but this new strategy of the “Leão”, makes it put ahead of the race for this election.
In every way, it is worth clarifying that any prediction that can be vaticinar is no more than a bet, the reality will only be revealed on November 20, and it will be revealed whether the strategic cimbronazo of the libertarian has yielded or not its fruits.
[1] Theorem of Baglini (26 October 2023). In Wikipedia. https://wiki/7$ Q
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