3/27/2023 - Politics and Society

La grieta oficialista

By Juan Cruz Nieva

Imagen de portada
Imagen de portada

On Wednesday, March 1, according to Article 63 of the National Constitution, the 161 period of ordinary sessions of the national congress began. There, President Argentino, Alberto Fernandez, escorted by the 3 women who make up the presidential succession, was received by legislators from both chambers, governors, ministers and members of civil society, among others, to shape his script of the year to come.

A year that's not anyone. This year, the 46 million Argentines must run for the polls to elect the next president of the nation, governors, mayors and legislators. She was breathing in the enclosure a campaign tone speech whose main goal was one: to display the exiguous achievements of a brutally worn president by whom she was sitting on the left: her vice president Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner.

The Divisions Within the Government

On the outskirts of Congress, unlike the previous three cycles, there was no mobilization of the majority of justiceist-kirchnerist militancy. On the contrary, a semivacia square gathered there those who, by their own will, had gone to support a highly weakened president, the product of the constant friendly fire on the part of those within their own coalition. In Congress Square, harmless clashes were fought between those who took pamphlets with the inscription “Alberto 2023” and those who defended the vice president accusing the current president of traitor, among other qualifiers. What do both factions have in common? That only 3 years ago ufanaban fervently the triumph of the formula Fernandez- Fernandez. Today, they would appear to be part of the opposition coalition and not of officialism.

3 years later, the wear of Fernandez (caballero) management progressively provoked the fury of Fernandez (dama). An inflation accumulated in the triennial of 300%, 40% of poverty (numbers rise to 52% in the children's population), a "tariff closure" and an agreement with the International Monetary Fund are just some of the headaches that persecute the official coalition. A central-left coalition that took over in 2019 at the height of a strong economic recession under the mantra “the best is to come”.

Remaining only 5 months for the August primary elections, officialism cannot find a competitive candidate that guarantees them to triumph, no longer holistically in the first round as in 2019, but with the just in a ballotage, the last silver bullet of peronism. Alberto Fernández gives ambiguous signs of his continuity in the first magistracy. Aware that the numbers do not smile - the latest searches give you in the category of 'safe vote' an intention to vote that only the margin of the two digits - aude that will make a decision on the closure of lists there by June. He knows that coming down from the electoral dispute would imply a total loss of the (poco) power that still stands in front of an appalling kirchnerism. That's why it publicly states that it would only pass this electoral turn if someone who is better at it appears. This decision represents a double-edged weapon for the president, as a fantasy with which in June a low inflation and recovery of economic activity allows him to regain the epic of savior, to which he appealed in 2019.

The Possible Candidacy of Sergio Massa

There is where Sergio Massa, current Minister of Economics and eternal candidate for president appears. If inflation begins the descending path and the apremian citizens their work, from massism and the more rational kirchnerism, dream of joining it, a moderate capable of attracting the middle elector, as presidential candidate. A kind of remake by Alberto Fernandez in 2019. Thus, with numbers in hand, they would call upon the president to respect his word and give his place in the formula. However, the minister would seem to refuse the idea of sacrificing himself this year, aware of the possible electoral defeat. That is why I would prefer to park the car in 2023 to condition it and look competitive in 2027 in front of a possible government of the current opposition, which will be greatly weakened by the economic adjustments that will take place in its presidential turn.

Within the filo-kirchnerist huestes do not seduce them to repeat the error of 2019 by positioning an alien ahead of the project. They no longer hide their malaise with Fernandez, to whom he periodically manages to download re-election, no longer in off the record, but publicly. This is why they urge Cristina Fernandez to climb the ring and go through the third (an allegory referred to as a third term, as well as the third world cup obtained by Argentina in the world of Qatar). However, it would also not seem to seduce the idea of governing an Argentine who glimpses very complex years socially and economically. Therefore, claiming that he is the victim of a lawsuit in his against which he seeks to proscribe, he gave the good visa to his closest to leaving the bench of alternates and begin to prove the candidate's suit.

Candidates

Among them we find the Minister of the Interior, "Wado" of Pedro, a man of the kidney of La Cámpora, the youth association kirchnerista, which would seem to meet various requirements of the campaign manual. He is young, he has ties with the corporate and international world, he shows himself relaxed and has a slight tartamudez which, closer to him, recognize as a resource to explore. Leal to the former president, it was who triggered a wave of massive resignations after the election defeat of officialism in the 2021 legislative elections. Although the president did not accept his resignation, he kept him on the edge of the government and even accused of traitor. However, the minister lacks a single option of the campaign manual: a high level of knowledge. The polls show 50% unawareness of his figure. Perhaps that is why, after the frustrated attempt to photograph himself with the peasant selection at the dawn of December 20, he saw himself in the last few hours with the “Tula”, the Argentine fans who travel to the ceremony where he was crowned as representative to the best cheer in the world. Muchachooos...

Precalentando is also the latest former chief of Cabinet and current governor of the province of Tucumán, Juan Manzur. He came to the government after the wave of resignations in September 2021 to give “political volume” to a purely albertist cabinet. However, he also failed to gain the trust of the president and was relegated to a background. With an eye on the governor's election in May, where he will be a candidate for vice-governor, the northman speculates with a presidential release if the provincial results come out for him.

In the most developed presidential democracies it is very difficult – not to say impossible – to imagine dyscolos ministers who question the decisions of the presidential authority and mermen daily their legitimacy. Or perhaps we have seen U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris publicly hint at Joe Biden that his employees “do not work”? Without going further, do we hear the minister of the interior of our “small brother” of Uruguay, Luis Alberto Heber, qualify Luis Lacalle Pou as a “no codes” person?

The lack of clear leadership, competitive and internal candidates to rent balconies, peronism, eternized as the “party of power”, today, would seem to be in intensive therapy. The electoral year lives strongly within the corridors of the Casa Rosada and the Senate, the two meccas of power of the officialist coalition. A coalition that shows nothing but an excellent electoral alliance, but not an alliance to govern.

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juan nieva

Juan Cruz Nieva

Hi, I'm Juan Cruz, a Bachelor of International Studies and Government (UTDT). Magister in Journalism (UTDT + La Nación).

Currently serving as a Specialist in Finance and Administration in the private sector.

Eternal passionate to investigate, report and learn.

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