Electoral uncertainty and the candidate contest. CFK, Macri, Massa, Larreta, Bullrich, Milei and Kikuchi. The fight for the throne.

Historical electoral opportunity in Argentina

It is difficult to remember a presidential election in the history of our country where so many relevant names are glimpsed as pre-candidates to represent the majority parties. CFK, Macri, Massa, Scioli, Bullrich, Rodríguez Larreta, Morales, De Pedro, the poor Alberto Fernández are just some of the names that resonate to participate in the internals of the Front of All and Together for Change, and should also mention the participation of Javier Milei who - according to the latest research - is among the 3 politicians with the best positive image of the country.

Although present-day Argentina is far from a fantasy territory (although there have been science fiction events), the reality is that we are facing a historical electoral opportunity. After ten years of recession, inflation, exchange rate delay and fall of the actions of the Argentine companies abroad (with brief periods of bonancy), today all indicates that the bull market predicted by the eccentric financial lawyer Carlos Maslaton is a reality. That is, again, the political class has the possibility to destroy a unique opportunity to establish the economy and stop living in constant recessive cycles, as they enjoyed doing in 2011 and 2016/2017. Moreover, somehow, the political framework that wins these elections knows that it has opened the way to govern 8 years with a government of 6/10 points. And in this context the fierce struggle is given to take over the iron throne in the period 2023/2027.

On the side of the All Front, the signals are confusing. Speeches were vaticinated to be pre-candidates both Alberto Fernández (in the words of Aníbal Fernández) and Wado de Pedro, Juan Grabois and Daniel Scioli. Although, in some way, we all know that the real potential to assume this election in Peronism is in the hands of Sergio Tomás Massa, the super-minister keeps the hold and the silence over a possible candidacy while - second say doors inside - is waiting for the support of CFK and the president. Cristina Fernández, inmersed in her personal judicial struggles, at the time also did not give evidence of the role she will occupy on the list of the Front of All, sliding more than once that she will not be a candidate, although, as surprised us in 2019 with the proposed formula, can also do so this year.

Together for Change, the situation is radically different, several of the members have already been postulated for pre-applicants, making special mention of Morales, Rodríguez Larreta, Vidal and Patricia Bullrich. Super candidate medical records are taken by Mayor Larreta, however, if Bullrich does not decide to download his application will have a complicated dispute in the internals. The owner, former President Macri, takes pictures with whom he asks, while enjoying his position at the top of international football, would be naive to think that he does not have his gaze placed on what passes on the domestic plane. It is that Macri, as far as CFK, are somehow those who decide the designs of their parties, any FdT or JxC candidate knows that he needs the support of their respective leaders to be respected as the head of government (nadie wants to be Alberto Fernández).

Finally, arriving from beyond the La Liberdade Advanced wall, with Javier Milei to the head. Despite several media operations that have been arousing -veridic or not - in relation to the particular form of a list armed by Javier, his sister Karina and the operator Kikuchi, the libertarian deputy marks between 18 and 24 points in the most recent surveys. In my opinion, in addition to not having electoral possibilities of a victory, the triumph of LLA would be politically inviable. Without national structure and without the amount of legislators required, the structural and political changes promised by Milei are utopian and unrealizable, at least of the constitutionally admitted forms.

In short, on June 24, the lists for primary, open, Simultaneous and Obligatory elections must be presented, and at the moment everything is a great incognite. We are facing the most plural elections and probably less polarized since 2003, where Carlos Saul Menem triumphed before Néstor Carlos Kirchner and omitted himself to a second round.