José Adán Gutiérrez, Senior Fellow, MSI2 y Claudio Niada, empresario para FinGurú
The Chilean elections on November 16, 2025, are not a common electoral contest: they represent a historic crossroads for the political, economic, and strategic future of the country. For the first time, the entire left has aligned behind a candidate from the Communist Party, Jeannette Jara, who is leading or tying in most polls with her main right-wing opponent José Antonio Kast.
In contrast, the right is divided into two irreconcilable blocks, while the political center has collapsed and has given its support to the openly communist option, which tactically and communicatively self-identifies as center-left to attract naive voters.
With the D’Hondt system, which favors unified lists, and with control of Congress at stake, there is a real risk that the left will obtain legislative majorities that allow it to amend the Constitution and consolidate a regime ideologically aligned with Venezuela or Cuba. This analysis details the risks, internal divisions, strategic errors, and citizen and political warning signs that could be ignored at a very high cost to Chilean democracy and its future generations.
A victory for the Communist Party in Chile would not only radically transform the country but would mark a symbolic and strategic victory for the People's Republic of China on the continent. It would allow Beijing to have a reliable and aligned partner in the Southern Cone, consolidating its influence over critical sectors such as lithium, energy, maritime infrastructure, and telecommunications. Moreover, it would send a powerful signal to all of Latin America, altering the hemispheric geopolitical balance to the detriment of U.S. interests. The triumph of a communist government in Chile would have continental repercussions, weakening the democratic bloc and strengthening the advance of authoritarian regimes aligned with China.
1. Jeannette Jara: A communist candidate with a project for ideological transformation
Jeannette Jara, a prominent figure in the Communist Party of Chile (PCCh), won the leftist presidential primaries with overwhelming support (Reuters, 2025a). Far from moderating, she has reaffirmed her commitment to a marxist-leninist agenda, based on:
• Elimination of the private pension system (AFP).
• Nationalization of lithium and expansion of the State's role in strategic sectors.
• Highly redistributive tax reform.
• No condemnation of regimes such as Cuba or Venezuela; she defends them as “alternative democratic models” (AP News, 2025; Reuters, 2025b).
Unlike moderate left leaders, Jara tries to conceal her ideological program, and her vision of “overcoming the neoliberal model” with structural changes. If she wins the presidency, with a legislative majority, she will not govern as a social democrat or centrist, but as a communist committed to transforming Chile into a regional model of hard left.
2. The collapse of the political center and the surrender of the Christian democracy
One of the most concerning dynamics is the support of the Christian Democratic Party (PDC) for Jara's candidacy. This alliance represents an unprecedented ideological break. The PDC, historically a defender of Christian democracy and opposition to communism, has decided to support a candidate who, according to her critics, is neither democratic nor Christian (Ex-Ante, 2025).
Many former militants have left the party considering it "complicit in the authoritarian drift of the left." However, its leaders justify the support for Jara as a pragmatic strategy: to ensure parliamentary representation under a unified list. This political survival logic has led the center to lose its ideological identity, abandoning its moderating role and surrendering itself to the dominant leftist axis, regardless of principles, but aiming for its share of popular representation posts.
3. The divided right: An announced tragedy
The two most important factions of the right face the elections divided between:
• Chile Vamos, which supports Evelyn Matthei, with backing from Renovación Nacional, Evópoli, and the UDI.
• The Republican Party, led by José Antonio Kast, with support from the Social Christian Party.
• There are also smaller groups such as libertarians and dissidents.
This division has weakened their chances both in the presidential and parliamentary elections. According to polls from July 2025:
• Kast leads with 30–31%.
• Jara follows closely with 27–29%.
• Matthei barely reaches 14–17% (Capital Economics, 2025).
4. The D’Hondt System and the battle for Congress
The Chilean electoral system is based on the proportional D’Hondt method, which favors unified blocks. This means that, although the divided right may take more votes in total, the left can obtain more seats if it runs on a single list.
What does this mean in practice?
• An absolute majority in the Chamber of Deputies is 78 seats.
• A majority of 4/7 (89 deputies) allows the modification of organic laws and constitutional reforms without a plebiscite.
• According to recent projections, if the opposition unites, it can achieve up to 87 deputies; if divided, it would barely obtain 68 (Varela, 2025).
In the Senate, where 23 out of 50 seats are up for renewal, a single list from the right could achieve 27 seats, a historic majority that would allow it to control key committees. But divided, they are likely to obtain only 13 (Varela, 2025).
5. Citizens' voices call for unity: Varela’s call and the Open Letter
Two recent interventions published in the Chilean press highlight the seriousness of the moment:
a) Gerardo Varela, former minister and political analyst, wrote:
“United in one list we win, divided in two we lose.”
“In a proportional system, it is better for one list to sweep than having two pairs […] The left knows this perfectly well. The right seems determined to repeat the mistakes of the past” (Varela, 2025).
b) An Open Letter signed by more than 100 civil society leaders urged Kast, Matthei, and Kaiser to set aside personal interests and form a single parliamentary list:
“Chile needs a change. If we act united, we have the historic opportunity to win the presidency and Congress. If we go divided, we risk losing both” (Open Letter, 2025).
These voices reflect not only the political urgency but also the broad citizen support for the call for unity, detached from party hegemonies.
6. The China factor: Silent ally of a possible communist victory
China, through a long and patient approach, has strengthened its ties with Chile in strategic sectors such as lithium, copper, and telecommunications. A presidency of Jara, favorable to models of state governance and economic sovereignty, would greatly benefit the geostrategic interests of Beijing:
Preference in energy and infrastructure bids.
Expansion of Huawei and 5G networks.
Fishing by large Chinese fishing fleets and their passage through the Strait of Magellan, facilitating access to the Antarctic continent.
Anti-U.S. diplomatic alignment in regional forums (Xinhua, 2025).
7. Strategic recommendations
For the opposition:
• Form as soon as possible and before August 18 when candidacies must be registered a unified parliamentary list, putting aside egos and personal ambitions.
• Agree on a common strategy for the presidential second round, anticipating a direct confrontation with Jara.
For civil society:
• Publicly support unity.
• Mobilize informed voting against authoritarian ideological options.
For international allies:
• Monitor closely the results and potential constitutional reforms.
• Offer economic alternatives that compete with Chinese financing.
As a reference, on July 21, a High-Level meeting called Democracy Forever took place in Santiago, with the participation of leftist presidents: Luis Inacio Lula da Silva of Brazil, Pedro Sánchez, President of the Government of Spain, Yamandu Orsi of Uruguay, Gustavo Petro of Colombia, and the host Gabriel Boric of Chile. A living example of international left in the results of the elections in Chile.
Conclusion
The upcoming 2025 election in Chile represents a true crossroads. The risk of a communist presidency with a legislative majority is real, imminent, and profound. The disunion of the right and the disappearance of the center have created the perfect scenario for a structural transformation of the Chilean state. Only an electoral unity strategy can prevent an authoritarian drift. As the citizen letter wisely warned: “Chile needs it, the electorate demands it, and reality advises it.”
A communist victory in Chile would not merely be a change of national government: it would be a victory for communism in the Western hemisphere. Given Chile's international prestige as an institutionally stable, democratic, and economically sound country, its ideological transformation under communist leadership would have a legitimizing and multiplying effect for authoritarian regimes in the region. A Chile aligned with the São Paulo Forum and sympathetic to Havana, Caracas, and Managua would become a highly effective strategic ally of the People's Republic of China, facilitating its technological, commercial, and diplomatic penetration in South America. This new relationship would have a direct counterbalance of a deep deterioration of U.S. influence, as it would lose a key and traditional partner in the Andean region and the South Pacific. In this context, a political defeat for the opposition would not just be a political setback but a high-impact geostrategic defeat for the entire hemisphere.
References
Associated Press. (2025, June 30). Chilean communist scores surprise win in primary vote as battle with far-right looms. https://apnews.com/article/chile-election-farright-communist-jeannette-jara-64aa1a305842384f8e9c31cc61c0ca93
Capital Economics. (2025, July 4). Chile’s communist candidate, Mexico’s weak economy. Latin America Economics Weekly. https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/latin-america-economics-weekly/chiles-communist-candidate-mexicos-weak-economy
Ex-Ante. (2025, July 26). DC decides to support Jeannette Jara in the presidential elections and Undurraga leaves the presidency of the party. https://www.ex-ante.cl/dc-decide-apoyar-a-jeannette-jara-en-las-elecciones-presidenciales-y-undurraga-renuncia-a-la-presidencia/
Reuters. (2025a, June 30). Chile picks Jeannette Jara to face off against right-wing presidential field. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/chile-picks-jeannette-jara-face-off-against-right-wing-presidential-field-2025-06-29/
Reuters. (2025b, July 22). Jeannette Jara is a coalition Communist who wants to be Chile’s next president. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/jeannette-jara-is-coalition-communist-who-wants-be-chiles-next-president-2025-07-22/
The Guardian. (2025, June 30). Chile communist Jeannette Jara to lead beleaguered ruling coalition at election. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/30/chile-jeannette-jara-communist-candidate
The Times in Spanish. (2025, July 20). *Open Letter* to José Antonio Kast, Evelyn Matthei, Johannes Kaiser, and the leaders of the opposition to the government. [https://thetimes.cl/contenido/6543/carta-de-empresarios-a-kast-matthei-y-kaiser](https://thetimes.cl/contenido/6543/carta-de-empresarios-a-kast-matthei-y-kaiser)
Varela, G. (2025, July). *United on one list we win, divided on two we lose.* Published in Chilean media. [https://fppchile.org/unidos-en-una-lista-se-gana-desunidos-en-dos-se-pierde/](https://fppchile.org/unidos-en-una-lista-se-gana-desunidos-en-dos-se-pierde/)
Xinhua News. (2025, June 30). *Summary: Former Minister Jeannette Jara wins official presidential primaries in Chile.* [https://spanish.news.cn/20250630/b3cacbe5d83f4dbd80692b2085cfaf9a/c.html](https://spanish.news.cn/20250630/b3cacbe5d83f4dbd80692b2085cfaf9a/c.html)
José Adán Gutiérrez supervises operations and strategy in Latin America, with over 40 years of experience in the military, civil, and private sectors. He is fluent in Spanish and has extensive experience in intelligence, security, and diplomacy throughout the American continent, including more than two decades as a Naval Intelligence Officer and Naval Attaché of the U.S. in Panama. Previously, he held senior positions at SAIC, Mission Essential, and INDETEC, and holds advanced degrees from the Naval War College and New York University.
Claudio Niada. Business partner at Ecoloop SpA (Chile)
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