Among the many factors that allowed La Libertad Avanza to win last year's elections, one that could be considered key, and which even today continues to grant it a broader margin of action than previous governments, is the weak opposition. This opposition seems unable to organize itself and provide a real debate on the policies promoted by the current government.
However, it is only a matter of time before this situation changes, and the way in which an opposing block to the government is formed and organized, either directly or indirectly, will define how the political landscape will develop in the coming years.
Government and Opposition: Who Defines Whom?
The relationship between government and opposition is one of balance, as it responds to a society that, in turn, demands leaders who reflect its interests. An example of this could be Milei, who represents in many ways the interests and concerns of new generations and a dissatisfaction with traditional politics. Or Macri, who embodied, at the time, the society's fatigue with so many years of Kirchnerist government. Opponents to various governments organize under a leadership, reacting, but also conditioning their counterparts to make decisions that, in another context, they would not have taken. A good example of this was the creation of the Frente de Todos in 2019, with its Fernández-Kirchner ticket, which forced then-president Mauricio Macri to create his own coalition, Juntos por el Cambio, in an attempt to capture a larger percentage of the electorate than his direct competitor. That is just one case in which this phenomenon is very evident, but it is worth clarifying that this constant mutual conditioning can occur in much smaller instances, on scales that are harder to identify.
However, the intention of this article is not to overwhelm you with all the possible cases in which an opposition determines the actions of the government or vice versa, but to make it clear that this relationship exists between both and that it is not a minor determinant.
Renewal? Or the same old faces?
The context of uncertainty mentioned at the beginning, combined with an evident generational change, only expands the range of scenarios that could unfold in the coming years, presenting a moment of opportunity for new faces to emerge, after so many years dominated by the same players. Whether it's a return of Cristina Kirchner as the leader of the “anti-Milei” movement, a disgruntled member of the PRO with the alignment of his party, or someone completely new, what is certain is that we are on the brink of a significant change in the political landscape; I would dare say it is the most significant since the return to democracy. However, it is never wise to count out those with the most experience, as they are the ones who know best how to stay in the game. Still, the deep-rooted conflicts that seem to engulf the opposition parties are undeniable, which are merely a symptom that the waters of politics are stirred.
What is the government’s stance?
But clearly, it is not very convenient for the president and his party for the opposition to adjust to the new landscape. Rather, the ideal for the government, looking toward future elections, is for everything to remain as it is. However, that scenario is too unlikely; instability is characterized precisely by being unable to remain in the same state for long. And La Libertad Avanza's strategy seems to revolve around Cristina Kirchner. Right now, the president and the ex-president appear to be playing a game that benefits both of them. Everything points to Milei seeking to focus critical voices on the figure of the former president; which, in turn, is exploited by her. The strategy is to have your opponents organize in such a way that the majority of voters remain on your side of the divide, and apparently, the libertarian party considers that this scenario is now occupied by the president of the PJ on the other side. Only time will tell if that was indeed the best path for the current government.
Much uncertainty, many opportunities
In conclusion, when the script is absent, any actor can take the lead role, and it has been many years since we had such an uncertain outlook regarding the actors facing the next elections in Argentina. The perfect context is emerging for figures, parties, and spaces, from marginal to non-existent, to gain prominence and position themselves as the faces of politics in the next decade. This could be the time when we see the rise of future leaders from both the opposition and the government. Every instability is, at the same time, both a problem and an opportunity.
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