Jesus Daniel Romero and William Acosta for Poder & Dinero and FinGurú
Geopolitical Context
The year 2025 presents itself as a critical period of change in U.S. politics, particularly in relation to Donald Trump's administration and its approach to Latin America. The situation in countries such as Venezuela, Haiti, Cuba, Mexico, and Nicaragua intertwines with themes of immigration, drug trafficking, and natural disasters, creating a complex web that will require attention and flexible strategies.
Mass Immigration from Venezuela
The crisis in Venezuela has led to a massive migration to the United States, with millions of Venezuelans seeking refuge from the economic and political collapse in their country. The Trump administration has faced this migratory wave with policies of mass deportations, which has generated collective hysteria among Venezuelans who fear being returned to a hostile environment. It is essential not to confuse this hysteria with the legitimate need for the United States to regain national security and control its borders. The results of the November presidential elections clearly demonstrate voters' concerns about immigration and border security.
The only way the Trump administration can find a more viable solution is by seeking the ousting of Nicolás Maduro's dictatorial regime. This could not only alleviate migratory pressure but also allow Venezuelans to return to a country where they can rebuild their lives in a democratic and stable environment. The signing of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) and the Deferred Enforced Departure (DED) concept have been significant steps, but the long-term focus must be on restoring democracy in Venezuela.
The Immigration Crisis in the Caribbean
In addition to Venezuelans, migration from Haiti and Cuba has also increased. The crisis in Haiti, characterized by political instability and natural disasters, has forced many to seek a better life in the United States. Meanwhile, the situation in Cuba remains volatile, with a regime that restricts freedoms and growing discontent among the population. This convergence of humanitarian crises will be at the center of Trump's political agenda in 2025.
The Effect of Migrant Caravans
Migrant caravans heading to the U.S. border were a social weapon designed to have a devastating effect by liberal media against the Trump administration between 2016 and 2020. Right-leaning media took advantage of showing images of detention centers for illegal immigrants as wild animal cages. The reality was that these detention centers were the same ones implemented and used during former President Barack Obama's administration, known as the "deporter in chief." According to government estimates, Obama deported over 5 million immigrants from the United States. The migrant caravans were used effectively as a weapon against the Trump administration, which was accused of human rights violations due to its zero-tolerance policy. A country's comprehensive protection focuses on its sovereignty, based on the protection of its citizens and its borders. The issue of illegal immigration and border security during the 2024 U.S. presidential elections were critical issues relevant to Trump's reelection, in contrast to the right-wing policy of open borders. The use of caravans in 2025 against the Trump administration is expected to demonstrate that its immigration policy is repressive and infringes upon universal human rights.
Challenges in Deportation Policies
Trump's mass deportation policy has been a controversial topic, generating both support and opposition. The administration will need to find a balance between national security and humanitarian need. The pressure on the asylum infrastructure in the United States will intensify as more people from these countries attempt to cross the border. It is crucial to recognize that the pursuit of reclaiming national security should not be perceived as a mere response to public hysteria but as a necessary strategy to protect the interests of the United States.
Additionally, it is imperative to establish a more orderly policy on immigration and borders. This would include a more systematic approach that combines security measures with international cooperation initiatives to address the underlying causes of migration, such as violence, poverty, and lack of opportunities in the countries of origin.
The Fallacy of Generalization about Immigrants
A commonly used argument is that immigrants are essential for solving economic problems in the United States, such as working in fields as "braceros" to keep costs of fruits and vegetables low. However, this generalization is a fallacy. The reality is that many of these immigrants do not come to work in the fields; instead, they are mostly seeking assistance from federal and state governments. This phenomenon may be the result of the difficult conditions in their countries of origin, as well as the search for safety and stability in the United States.
Reducing the impact of immigrants solely to low-paying jobs in agriculture ignores their contribution in other sectors and the complexity of the U.S. economy. Many immigrants arrive with the hope of accessing social services and opportunities that would allow them to improve their quality of life, which poses an additional challenge for the administration in terms of resources and public policies.
Zero Tolerance
The designated border czar for elected President Trump, Tom Homan, maintains a firm stance on border security and the implementation of mass deportations of illegal immigrants. Homan also served as acting director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement during Trump's first term. During a 2019 House Oversight Committee hearing, Homan defended the administration's "Zero Tolerance" position. The policy articulated by Homan is based on existing U.S. law regarding the entry of migrants.
Drug Trafficking
Drug trafficking remains a significant challenge, especially concerning Mexico and Nicaragua. The interconnection between organized crime and migration is evident; many are forced to flee violence and extortion. The reactivation of coca and cocaine production in Colombia has brought violence and corruption that has led to failed states, as exemplified by Ecuador and Haiti, which have failed to seek a solution to this problem.
Natural disasters, exacerbated by climate change, will also play a role in migration and regional instability, affecting countries like Haiti and Nicaragua, which have historically been vulnerable to such events.
Conclusion
In summary, 2025 will bring a series of complex challenges for the Trump administration concerning immigration and stability in Latin America. The need for innovative and humane policies will be essential in addressing the immigration crisis and its interrelation with drug trafficking and natural disasters. Helping to remove Maduro's regime in Venezuela could be a crucial step toward a more sustainable and viable solution. At the same time, establishing a more orderly immigration and border policy will allow the United States to better manage these challenges, protecting both its national security and the human rights of those seeking a better future. The administration's ability to navigate these issues, recognizing the diverse motivations and needs of immigrants, will be crucial for the future of the region and U.S. domestic politics. It is essential to stabilize the region and protect the foundations for developing security and prosperity, which are fundamental to stopping new mass migrations toward the northern border.
Credits:
- Article: "The Politics of Immigration in America" - The New York Times
- Report: "Migration and its Challenges" - Pew Research Center
- Analysis: "The Impact of Immigration Policies on US Society" - The Washington Post
- Report: "Venezuelan Migration Crisis: An In-Depth Look" - BBC News
- Study: "Narcotraffic and Its Effects on Migration" - Al Jazeera
Jesus Daniel Romero became an officer through the Navy's Enlisted Program and graduated with honors from Norfolk State University with a Bachelor’s degree in Political Science. He later graduated from Naval Aviation Command Pre-Flight Training and completed intermediate training in VT-10 and VT-86 squadrons. He served aboard a nuclear missile cruiser, amphibious operation ships, and various aviation squadrons, including a fixed-wing strike bombing squadron and a carrier air wing, deployed to Libya, Bosnia, Iraq, and Somalia. He served tours with the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) in Panama, the Joint Pacific Intelligence Center in Hawaii, and the Joint POW/MIA Accounting Command. Jesus and his team successfully attacked an international criminal organization operating in multiple countries and in the United States, dismantling and disrupting criminal activities on behalf of Mexican cartels.
William L. Acosta is the founder and CEO of Equalizer Private Investigations & Security Services Inc. An authorized and licensed investigation agency in NYS, FL. With offices and affiliates worldwide. Equalizer maintains offices and branches in the United States in New York, Florida, and California. Since 1999, Equalizer investigations have successfully closed hundreds of cases, ranging from homicides, missing persons, and other crimes. He has been involved in the defense of hundreds of state and federal criminal defense cases ranging from homicide, narcotics, racketeering, money laundering, conspiracy, and other federal and state charges. He specializes in international and multi-jurisdictional investigations, and in recent years has conducted investigations in Germany, Italy, Portugal, Spain, France, England, Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Panama, Colombia, Venezuela, Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador, Peru, Brazil, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, among other locations. He has led or coordinated hundreds of investigations related to international drug trafficking, money laundering, and homicides; and has been an instructor and speaker internationally on various investigative topics. Specialties: Criminal Defense Investigations, International Investigations, Homicides, Undercover Narcotics Operations, Investigations, Asset Forfeiture Investigations, Conspiracy, Human Trafficking, Surveillance, International Terrorism, Intelligence, Technical Surveillance Countermeasures, Internal Affairs Investigations, National Security.
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