Jesús Romero and William Acosta for Poder & Dinero and FinGurú
General Context
On January 10, 2025, Nicolás Maduro is preparing for a new presidential inauguration in Venezuela, surrounded by controversies and allegations of electoral fraud. In this scenario, Edmundo González Urrutia, president elected by the people after the elections on July 28, 2024, began a tour of Latin America with the aim of gathering regional support while simultaneously pressuring against this ceremony and diverting attention towards his figure.
Edmundo González Urrutia's Tour
Edmundo González seeks to establish himself as the legitimate president elected of Venezuela before his scheduled swearing-in on January 10, 2025. González began his tour in Buenos Aires, Argentina, after being in exile in Spain since September. González promises to return to Caracas to "take possession" on January 10, instead of Maduro. On the day of his arrival, Venezuelan authorities have an arrest warrant against him, with a reward of 100,000 dollars.
During his tour, he met with Argentine President Javier Milei, along with a delegation that includes political leader Antonio Ledezma. The countries included in the tour are Argentina, Uruguay, Panama, the Dominican Republic, and possibly the United States. The tour will culminate on January 10, the same day Maduro plans to self-proclaim president for a third term.
González is trying to consolidate support in Europe, where he conducted a tour that began in October 2024 and ended in December of the same year. During this time, he visited countries such as Italy, Germany, and Spain, seeking to strengthen the legitimacy of his position. However, the European Union's reluctance to provide significant support has become evident.
The relationship between González and María Corina Machado is tense, especially after her dialogue with the Venezuelan government that she disapproved of. Machado seeks to regain prominence in light of Donald Trump's victory, aligning herself with the Republican Party. The disputes within the opposition reflect strategic differences and power struggles over Venezuelan assets abroad, adding complexity to the situation. As one might expect, Ledezma’s accompaniment to Argentina is an indication of this tension: he represents the past and coexistence with the regime for a large majority of the opposition.
Possibilities for Edmundo González Urrutia to Assume the Presidency
Sovereignty is defined as effective control over a territory. In Venezuela, real power resides in those who control the state, which has confiscated popular sovereignty. This date is crucial for González, as it would mark his attempt to assume the presidency.
A symbolic inauguration from exile could grant him international legitimacy. However, an attempt to enter Venezuela could result in the loss of his political asylum status in Spain, according to the 1951 Geneva Convention. Venezuelan authorities could block his entry, complicating his situation and increasing diplomatic tensions with Colombia and Brazil.
The situation in the United States will be uncertain after the presidential inauguration on January 20, 2025, which could limit any change in the U.S. stance towards Venezuela. In the days leading up to the date, the possibilities for González to take possession are considered slim.
Objectives of the Tour
González's tour aims to delegitimize Maduro's inauguration event, focusing on electoral fraud and human rights violations in Venezuela. In doing so, González intends to gain international visibility and strengthen support for the opposition.
Arrest Warrant and Challenges
The arrest warrant issued by the Venezuelan police, with a reward of 100,000 dollars for his detention, adds a significant level of risk. Despite these threats, González plans to return to Caracas on the day of the inauguration, reflecting his strategy of direct defiance to the regime.
Strategic Meetings
During his tour, González will seek to consolidate international support and generate diplomatic pressure against the Venezuelan government. His meeting with Argentine President Javier Milei is particularly significant, as he expresses a strong critical stance towards Maduro.
International Support
The backing of the United States is crucial to González's strategy. The U.S. administration reaffirms its commitment to supporting the opposition, which could translate into concrete actions facilitating his return to Caracas.
Political Tension in Venezuela
The political situation in Venezuela is extremely tense, with chavismo preparing the inauguration and the opposition calling for mobilizations. This climate creates fertile ground for González's actions, who can capitalize on popular discontent and frustration against the regime.
Significance of the Tour Through South America
Edmundo González's tour is not only a strategy of opposition, but also a symbolic act aimed at consolidating an image of unity and resistance among Latin American countries against a regime deemed illegitimate. This effort to build a regional consensus against Maduro could have a lasting impact on Latin American politics, promoting a human rights and democracy agenda.
Analysis on the Need for the Use of Force to Remove Nicolás Maduro
The question of whether the use of force is necessary to remove Nicolás Maduro is a complex issue involving ethical, political, social, and humanitarian considerations. Maduro's regime exerts tight control over state institutions, leading many to question whether a peaceful change is possible. The international community has documented numerous violations under his government, creating a sense of urgency to act.
Political changes have occurred through peaceful mobilizations and civil disobedience, with the opposition's ability to organize massive protests being crucial. Although dialogue has had mixed results, some argue it could offer a pathway to peaceful transition. International pressure through sanctions may weaken the regime without resorting to military force, but military intervention carries significant risks.
Any use of force can have devastating consequences for the civilian population and exacerbate the existing humanitarian crisis. Investing in political education and civil society organization may offer a pathway for sustainable change. The lack of consensus among powers on how to address the crisis limits the effectiveness of any intervention, and fragmentation within the opposition makes it difficult to create a solid front.
International Laws and Norms Condemning the Usurpation of Power
The principles of the United Nations Charter prohibit the use of force in international relations and promote respect for human rights. The Universal Declaration of Human Rights establishes the right to participate in government, while the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights mandates ensuring free and fair elections. The Organization of American States condemns the breakdown of democratic order and the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights can investigate human rights violations.
Articles of the Venezuelan Constitution Related to the Usurpation of Power
Article 5 establishes that national sovereignty resides untransferably in the people, who exercise their will through voting. This article reinforces the idea that power should be exercised based on popular will. Article 6 establishes that sovereignty resides untransferably in the people. By remaining in power despite electoral loss, Maduro is considered to be violating popular will. Article 70 recognizes the people's right to resist oppression. The permanence of a leader who lacks electoral backing can be interpreted as usurpation that justifies popular resistance.
Article 132 establishes that the president may be removed by the National Assembly. The failure to recognize electoral results that legitimize him can be seen as a violation of this article. Article 233 lists the causes for absolute absence of the president, including resignation, removal, or death. The interpretation of electoral illegitimacy may lead to the conclusion that he is in absolute absence.
Article 244 establishes that the exercise of public power must be subject to the control and oversight of the people. The lack of transparency in the electoral process may be considered a violation of this principle. Article 259 establishes that public administration must serve the people. Maduro's permanency in power, despite the lack of legitimacy, could be interpreted as an abuse of power against the interests of the people.
Police Officers Arrested for Corruption and Drug Trafficking
In the context of corruption within Maduro's regime, several police officers have been arrested for their involvement in drug trafficking networks. Among those arrested are high-ranking officials of the Bolivarian National Police and National Guard members, who have been accused of collaborating with drug cartels and facilitating the trafficking of illegal substances. The dates of these arrests have been recorded throughout 2024, reflecting the deep institutional crisis and lack of trust in the country's security system.
International Responses
Economic and political sanctions may be imposed. Countries may choose not to recognize a government that has come to power illegitimately.
Action Mechanisms
Complaints may be filed with international bodies to investigate human rights violations. Pressure from the international community can help create a favorable environment for change.
Conclusion
Edmundo González Urrutia's tour represents a critical moment in the opposition struggle in Venezuela. González seeks visibility and international support to confront a regime that lacks legitimacy. Nicolás Maduro's permanency in power, following elections that have been alleged to be fraudulent and lacking transparency, constitutes a serious violation of several articles of the Venezuelan Constitution. The combination of sanctions, diplomatic pressure, and civil society mobilization is key to promoting democratic and sustainable change in Venezuela, as well as restoring the legitimacy and rights of the Venezuelan people.
Credits
This analysis has been prepared using information collected from various sources, including El Nacional, La Nación, El Tiempo, Infobae, BBC Mundo, Reuters, and Venezuelanalysis. We appreciate the informative work of these media, which contribute to the understanding of the political situation in Venezuela and the dynamics of the opposition.
Jesús Daniel Romero, of Venezuelan origin, joined the U.S. Navy in 1984 and graduated with a degree in Political Science from Norfolk State University. However, it was not until 1992 that Romero became a naval intelligence officer.
He served as an ocean commander in Panama from 1996 to 1999 and later in Hawaii, where he was a China observation officer. In 2001, he was director of policy for the joint task force and led technical talks with China, Myanmar, Cambodia, India, North Korea, and Vietnam.
After 37 years in his career, Romero has been decorated by the Armed Forces, NATO, the Navy, and the Defense Service.
Romero was a witness in the federal criminal case in the Eastern District of Texas against Debra Lynn Mercer-Erwin, president of Aircraft Guaranty LLC, who was responsible for providing aircraft to Mexican and Colombian-Venezuelan cartels to transport cocaine from Colombia to the United States. The former commander worked to dismantle these operations until August 2022.
William Acosta is the founder and CEO of Equalizer Private Investigations & Security Services Inc. He has coordinated investigations related to international drug trafficking, money laundering, and homicides in the U.S. and other countries around the world such as Germany, Italy, Portugal, Spain, France, England, and literally all of Latin America.
William has been a New York Police Investigator for 10 years, 2 years in the Treasury Department, and 6 years in the U.S. Army with several international deployments on communications and intelligence issues.
CAREER AND EXPERIENCE
William Acosta, a veteran international investigator, coordinated multijurisdictional investigations on drug trafficking, money laundering, and homicides in the United States and other countries.
Acosta's martial arts training in taekwondo has reached the 6th dan, practicing traditionally as a lifestyle and not just for fighting.
The transition from police to private investigation allowed Acosta to make his own rules and choose clients after more than 20 years in the profession.
Comments