Jesús Daniel Romero and William Acosta for Poder & Dinero and FinGurú
The year 2025 is shaping up to be a critical period for Latin America, marked by a series of political, economic, and social transformations that will influence the stability and development of the region. The interaction between domestic politics, the external influence of powers such as the United States and China, and socioeconomic factors such as migration and organized crime, including groups like El Tren de Aragua, will define the course of Latin American countries.
National elections in countries such as Venezuela, Ecuador, and Bolivia will generate an environment of political uncertainty. The possibility of regime changes could alter diplomatic and economic relations, especially with the United States and China. The consolidation of leftist regimes, like those in Cuba and Venezuela, and the emergence of governments more aligned with anti-American ideologies in other countries could create internal and external tensions, affecting governability.
The Trump administration will focus on strengthening border security and addressing the migration crisis from countries like Venezuela and Cuba. This will involve a more aggressive approach to regimes considered adversarial and the implementation of economic sanctions. The United States will seek to reaffirm its economic influence through trade agreements and strategic partnerships, particularly in sectors such as energy and infrastructure. Washington will intensify its efforts to limit China's expanding influence in the region.
China is expected to continue increasing its investments in infrastructure, technology, and natural resources in Latin America, consolidating its role as a key trading partner. Beijing will use its diplomacy to strengthen bilateral and multilateral relations, leveraging institutions like CELAC to gain political support and counter U.S. influence.
Russia will seek to strengthen its ties with leftist and authoritarian governments, such as in Venezuela and Nicaragua, offering military and economic support. In a context of instability, Moscow could intervene in regional conflicts to expand its influence and counter the presence of the United States.
Iran will look to strengthen its relationships with anti-American regimes in the region, offering ideological and military support. This could include cooperation on security and defense issues, especially in countries with leftist governments.
The Cuban regime will continue to seek support from allies like Russia and China to counter U.S. sanctions and pressures. The economic crisis in Cuba will likely drive an increase in migration to the United States, which could further destabilize bilateral relations.
Mass migration from Venezuela, Cuba, and Haiti is expected to continue, exacerbated by unstable political and economic conditions. This will generate additional pressures on receiving countries, especially Colombia and other South American nations. Organized crime and violence will remain central concerns. The expansion of criminal networks, such as El Tren de Aragua, and drug trafficking will affect public safety and trust in institutions, complicating efforts to improve governance.
Child recruitment as cannon fodder for armed groups will continue to be a problem if the permissive governments in the region keep ignoring these crimes. Children, victims of poverty and violence, are exploited by criminal organizations, perpetuating a cycle of violence and destabilization.
The border is not only used by Latin Americans trying to reach the north; it is also a transit point for thousands of people from around the world, including individuals seeking a better future, common criminals, terrorists, and other actors who hate the United States. This situation poses significant challenges for security and migration policy in the region.
The indiscriminate trafficking of minerals and precious stones has also increased, fueling illegal economies and generating social and environmental conflicts. Moreover, the influence peddling for multimillion-dollar contracts that are never finalized, allowing money to disappear without accountability, is a common practice. What all these phenomena have in common is the lack of consequences; justice has lost its place and is often applied only to the most vulnerable, while others are turned into peace brokers and re-elected or rewarded with government positions as mayors, governors, deputies, congressmen, senators, or even presidents.
Human rights violations will continue to be an alarming reality in the region, with cases of torture, forced disappearances, extrajudicial killings, arbitrary imprisonments without probable cause, as well as state terrorism. Many of these acts are perpetrated by government actors who are actually criminals disguised as heads of state. Impunity and the lack of separation of powers further exacerbate this situation, allowing these violations to continue without accountability.
The digital revolution will present both opportunities and risks. While technology can facilitate economic growth, it can also be used by non-state actors to increase criminality and disinformation, further undermining trust in democratic institutions.
Organized crime in Latin America will continue to be a significant challenge, with an increase in violence and drug trafficking, especially in the production of cocaine and methamphetamines. Institutional and political corruption, endemic in many countries, will undermine citizens' trust and perpetuate impunity. At the same time, the uncontrolled pillaging of natural resources and the wealth from government coffers is rampant. Illegal mining, fuel theft, deforestation, wildlife trafficking, and unrestricted logging will generate social conflicts and environmental damage, affecting biodiversity and local communities.
Socialist ideology and communism only serve to turn the ruling class into magnates while the people suffer from incomprehensible hardships. These models bring misery, ignorance, destroy economies, and foster regional destabilization. Prominent examples of this include Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, North Korea, and even the old Soviet Union. These destructive models of government have never worked and have left a legacy of suffering and poverty.
The United States cannot afford to turn a blind eye and continue leaving its neighbors in Latin America abandoned. A more proactive policy and diplomacy are needed, as we cannot allow countries like China, Russia, Iran, and Cuba to continue forging the destruction of our neighboring countries, gaining strength just steps away from our borders. It is important to remember that while we sleep, they work and plan the destruction of our way of life and endanger our national security.
The new administration of President Trump must take a more proactive role with the Colombian government and restore monitoring of coca and poppy crops, and their eradication, seeking a strategy to disrupt the thousands of hectares of these crops that have produced thousands of tons of cocaine and heroin annually. President Petro's government has allowed Colombia's national territory to become the country with the highest levels of cocaine production in the world, even higher than when the major Medellín, Cali, and Norte del Valle cartels operated. This is only possible if the National Government is directly allowing this to happen.
The outlook for 2025 in Latin America is complex and challenging. The interconnection between domestic politics, the external influence of global powers, and problems such as organized crime, drug trafficking, corruption, plundering of natural resources, the expansion of socialism, and the activities of lawless armed groups will generate a cycle of instability that will affect the development and well-being of the region. The ability of governments to implement comprehensive strategies that address these challenges in a coordinated manner will be essential for promoting a safer and more sustainable future for their citizens.
Credits
El Nacional, ABC Color, La Prensa, The New York Times, Venezuela Analysis, BBC Mundo, El País, Reuters.
Jesús Romero retired after more than 37 years of combined service in the U.S. government. He began his career in the United States Navy in 1984 as a sailor, serving aboard the nuclear cruiser USS South Carolina CGN 37 and the amphibious support ship USS Tortuga LSD 46. Throughout his career, he specialized in naval intelligence.
“In the early 1980s, I was studying between the US and Venezuela – he comments – but in '84 we had to return to the US due to the loss of the Bolívar against the dollar. I decided to enlist in the military. For me, it was a simple step to go to the military offices that were recruiting. I knocked on all the doors, but only one was open, that of the Navy. They accepted me a month later. My basic training was in Orlando between 1984 and 1985, the year when I became available on a nuclear cruiser,” he declared.
Major Jesús Romero, of Venezuelan origin, was an expert witness in the federal criminal case in the Eastern District of Texas against Debra Lynn Mercer, president of Aircraft Guaranty LLC, a company based in Oklahoma that allegedly had provided services to Mexican and Colombian-Venezuelan cartels with high-performance executive jets to transport cocaine from Venezuela and Colombia to the US.
William Acosta is the founder and CEO of Equalizer Private Investigations & Security Services Inc. He has coordinated investigations related to international drug trafficking, money laundering, and homicides in the US and other countries around the world such as Germany, Italy, Portugal, Spain, France, England, and literally all of Latin America.
He has been a police investigator in New York for 10 years, 2 years in the Department of the Treasury, and 6 years in the US Army with several international deployments on communications and intelligence issues.
An international veteran investigator, he coordinated multijurisdictional investigations on drug trafficking, money laundering, and homicides in the United States and other countries.
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