12/26/2024 - politics-and-society

Taiwan: The mysterious island of discord.

By Tobias

Taiwan: The mysterious island of discord.

Source: CNA.

Less than 2,200 kilometers from the People's Republic of China lies the island of Taiwan, a topic of much discussion today due to the ongoing tensions between the Asian giant and the island, which have faced each other throughout their history. On one hand, Communist China aims to occupy the territory with arguments very similar to those used by Argentina regarding the sovereignty of the Falkland Islands: historical belonging and belonging to its Exclusive Economic Zone according to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

On the other hand, the Taiwanese, who are mostly descendants of members of the Kuomintang government that fled the country in 1949 after the victory of the communist government, believe they are part of a state that, unlike the Falklands, has a population that comes precisely from the country that seeks to absorb them. Therefore, the right to self-determination established in the 1945 United Nations Charter is fulfilled.

However, irrespective of the arguments from both sides, it is fascinating to carry out this chronicle from the Pacific island, which is permanently under the threat of military occupation, fears that have become increasingly plausible following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. At a time when conflicts over territorial expansion are no longer a thing of the past but a part of a developing present.

The Normalization of the Permanent Threat:

After Donald Trump's re-election, the polarization with China has escalated, becoming a factor that amplifies tensions in the region. As early as 2016, Trump was the first U.S. president since 1979 to establish direct contact with his Taiwanese counterpart, a phone call that wreaked diplomatic havoc with Beijing by challenging the principle of "One China." During his first term, the Republican accelerated arms sales to Taiwan, strengthening its defensive capacity against potential aggression from the Asian giant.

However, the political reality in the United States could moderate the warlike impulses of the newly elected president. The growing rejection among U.S. citizens to send their youth to conflicts abroad, combined with the pressure to prioritize the domestic agenda, such as the economy and infrastructure, raises doubts about to what extent Trump could or would be willing to intervene militarily in a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait.

Meanwhile, Beijing continues to enhance the promotion and sophistication of its military apparatus, conducting increasingly realistic drills and reinforcing nationalistic rhetoric justifying a potential invasion. In international media, the sense that an invasion is imminent has become almost a consensus, generating an atmosphere of uncertainty not only in the region but also among global powers. For its part, Taiwan continues to strengthen its defenses and seek diplomatic support, aware that time and global dynamics might work against it.

However, the citizens of Taiwan have a very different perspective from the sensational and catastrophic announcements heard from abroad. Despite the growing threats from Beijing, most Taiwanese live with relative normalcy, reflecting a spirit of resilience in the face of external fears.

A Divided National Identity

Political Science Professor at Chengchi University, Yen Pin Su, explains how the issue underlies the foundational stone of the country. This is due more than anything to the fact that Taiwan is a nation with a divided identity. When the Kuomintang government settled on the island, this first generation considered itself the legitimate Chinese government in exile; therefore, their national identity was the same as that of mainland China, which was besieged under the yoke of communism. However, much like many Cubans in Miami, the years went by and the communist government not only did not leave but reinvented itself to become a global superpower. "The new generations no longer consider themselves Chinese but see themselves as a new Taiwanese national identity," the professor states. "During the late 90s, there were three groups: those who considered themselves solely Chinese, those who considered themselves solely Taiwanese, and those who saw themselves as both at the same time. The first group dramatically declined with the younger generation of the 90s, who adopted a wholly Taiwanese identity."

Taiwanese / Chinese Identity(1992/06~2024/06)

Source: Election Study Center at NCCU.

However, during the years 2008 and 2016, the Kuomintang, or the “Blues” (the party closest to China), governed the country, pushing forward trade agreements with the Asian power and getting too close to the Chinese government. This caused rejection from many sectors of this emerging Taiwanese society, which led to the rise of the Democratic Progressive Party, which governs to this day with a rhetoric very opposed to the government of mainland China. “These changes of approach or distancing lead Americans to be very cautious, particularly in military matters. The equipment that the U.S. sells to the Taiwanese government is not state-of-the-art due to fears of repeating a scenario of abandoning military material in the hands of enemies, as happened in Afghanistan with the Taliban.”

Later, I have lunch with a young person from this new generation born in the 90s, originally from the city of Kaohsiung in the south of Taiwan. He is part of a generation that grew up alongside globalization, depoliticized and with a cosmopolitan view of the world. He speaks with a calmness that reflects the confidence with which many of his generation approach life in an increasingly globally interconnected Taiwan. "All our lives we were told a Chinese invasion was coming. As far back as I can remember, that threat has always been present. Why should it be different this time?". For him, the constant threat from Beijing has become like background noise, something talked about in the media and politics, but which does not define his everyday reality.

China is also intensifying its efforts to dominate the semiconductor industry, a key sector for the global economy. As Taiwan maintains its position as a world leader in microchip production and tech companies like TSMC, Beijing has increased its focus on developing its own capabilities in semiconductors. The Chinese government has pushed policies to reduce its dependence on Taiwan and other nations, seeking to advance in the manufacturing of these vital products for its ambition to be a global technological superpower.

Despite the geopolitical tensions Taiwan faces, the country continues to excel in technological innovation. In particular, its leadership in the semiconductor industry underscores the importance of staying up to date with the latest technological trends. For those wishing to understand emerging technologies, a course like Blockchain and Decentralized Finance(DeFi) can be an excellent option. Through this course, participants can learn about disruptive technologies like blockchain, smart contracts, and the DeFi ecosystem, which are shaping the future of finance and digital.

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Tobias

Tobias

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