Octavio Pérez, senior member, MSI²
As we have seen over the years in the former Soviet Union, now in Russia, and even in North Korea, national holidays and their parades serve to identify the key equipment of their Armed Forces.
These parades become the panacea for image interpreters, who obtain the best measurements, key views, and angles of the equipment they have been monitoring and identifying for years.
September 3 is less than a month away, but leading analysts have been enjoying the imagery for the past few months. Why? Simple: these parades require preparation areas, rehearsals, formations, and static displays near the venue or just outside the city where most of the equipment is located.
Additionally, other locations in the country also become more active, and many secret facilities pull out prototypes of new aircraft, vehicles, and missiles. This, once again, becomes a dream come true for any AI interpreter (aerial imagery). Within a month, they will be able to analyze, assess their objectives, and redefine a description or identify a new variant or prototype.
This time, we will review the findings from three articles published recently between July 29 and August 9 of this year. The focus is on Chinese stealth fighters and bombers. They seem likely to be part of the parade, with the possibility that some will even appear in transports during it.
So it’s not only likely they will fly over, but a display or prototype could also be seen at ground level. The articles are based on recent imagery captured of some of these aircraft during their debut and the onset of deployment to Beijing for the parade. In one case, only six photos were taken; in others, multiple videos have been gathered from X, Telegram, and other Chinese platforms. All source analysts are also taking advantage of this activity, as obviously, by observing the flight maneuver, they can determine the capabilities and limitations of each platform.
Diving into the matter, recent photographs and sightings of the following Chinese aircraft led to the three articles we analyzed. The aircraft in question are:
Chinese stealth bomber Xian H-20
Shenyang J-35
Chengdu J-36
GJ-11 Sharp Sword
J-20
J-50
FH-97
FH-97A
Let’s review some key data, starting with the stealth bomber H-20, which, according to these articles, is reaching its operational status. The H-20 has been in development for nearly a decade (2010). Although it may not match the B-2 bomber or its successor, the B-21, it seems to meet China's immediate need for a stealth bomber with reach in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. This could also include the Indo-Pacific (beyond the Strait of Malacca).
Once again, Western analysts underestimate this bomber, calling it “...dangerously obsolete...”. However, its range is limited, and it may meet China's immediate needs.
The possibility of carrying hypersonic missiles that could reach Guam and Hawaii makes it a valuable asset, despite its technological limitations and apparent obsolescence. Its impending entry into operational status makes it an item of interest for the United States, which should incorporate it into the planning of the Seventh Fleet’s defense. Its potential deployment in the South China Sea and possible use in an invasion of Taiwan impacts the global economy, as it transits through these two critical points: the Strait of Malacca and the Taiwan Strait. Its potential nuclear payload also acts as a deterrent, as it can patrol a critical zone of the world undetected. Between 94,000 and 100,000 ships navigate the Strait of Malacca, representing about 30% of global trade, 40% of Japan's trade, 80% of South Korea's oil, and 60% of its energy supply.
This bomber, with long-range precision strike capability, serves as enforcer for China to assert its territorial claims. Something that China clearly demonstrates daily in the South China Sea with multiple confrontations with the Philippine Coast Guard and others.
Ultimately, with the integration of drone technology, it could also serve as a control platform for other unmanned drones, either as reconnaissance platforms or as electronic countermeasures for other bombers. These unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) would also serve as decoys to protect the bomber itself. By integrating all these aircraft, various aspects of the battlefield are covered with reconnaissance, electronic countermeasures, additional bomb payloads, and protection of the main aircraft.
The doctrinal impact of its deployment has already forced regional allies to readjust and modernize their air defenses, as in Japan, Taiwan, and even South Korea, which has a very viable military production industry. Thus, after 16 years, the threat is real, the bomber exists, and all must readjust to its presence.
The entry into service of the H-20 will be the platform for future innovations and will generate a readjustment in that theater of operations. Just like with catapults in Fujian, the H-20 once again makes China the second country with a high-performance strategic bomber after the United States.
Its delays and long development have been driven by improvements made to maximize aerodynamic efficiency, stealth considerations, payload capacity, and range. It challenges dominance in the Pacific and China’s sphere of influence, something the United States and its allies will have to deal with in the future.
The other fifth and sixth generation stealth aircraft that have appeared in the news are the Shenyang 35 and the Chengdu 36. Both are all-weather tactical fighters with limited bomb capacity, with land and carrier versions. The J-36 is a tailless stealth aircraft with greater payload and range than the J-35.
Recent images have also revealed another apparent version of a tailless stealth aircraft, which has not been confirmed as either a manned design or an advanced drone, now referred to in English as UCAV (Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicle), which could end up being a manned aircraft or a "loyal wingman" that is another UCAV. This could be the J-50 or the Shenyang J-XDS.
Only five recently revealed photos have been used to arrive at these preliminary conclusions. The quality and angle of the shots, typical of a leaked photograph, are not conclusive enough to draw a definitive conclusion. More evidence is needed to determine if this is a manned aircraft.
Others believe that the development of a drone as a loyal wingman is based on photos from the Yanfang military base, outside Beijing, where vehicles and equipment are prepared for the September 3 parade. Up to five CCA-type aircraft can be distinguished in the commercial satellite images.
A UCAV GJ 11 Sharp Sword can also be identified in the group. Four of the drones appear to lack tails and have modified diamond-shaped delta wings, while the last features a more traditional wing. These drones are partially covered with tarps and do not necessarily resemble those that have recently been seen flying.
The last article discusses the naval variant of the J-36, whose landing on an aircraft carrier during rough seas has been observed or confirmed. This capability sends warnings to all the world’s navies: China’s development of a direct force control system based on advanced robotics. It assists the aircraft while adjusting control surfaces instantly, avoiding obsolete aerodynamic models. In tests with six-meter waves, deck roll, aircraft carrier wake, wind gusts, and pressure shakes, the J-36 maintained its approach with laser precision. Now, storms cannot stop it.
China has the potential to land in rough seas using the Fujian Amphibious Assault Ship, which is also configured with electromagnetic catapults. This places China at the forefront in the ability to deploy and land aircraft capable of all-weather operations.
For the other navies navigating the Pacific and Indo-Pacific oceans, exposed annually to typhoons, this represents a competitive advantage for China. That said, China has taken the lead; others need to catch up.
As can be seen in four articles, a three-month period of observations and preparations for a parade, the amount of information obtained is quite significant.
References
Futura Team. (July 29, 2025). This new Chinese fighter jet lands where no plane has ever dared. Futura Sciences. https://www.futura-sciences.com/en/this-new-chinese-fighter-jet-lands-where-no-plane-has-ever-dared_19030/
Honrada, G. (August 9, 2025). Mysterious Chinese stealth aircraft: a new test for U.S. air dominance: Images of a tailless stealth jet intensify the competition between the United States and China for sixth-generation air power, where so far ambition exceeds demonstrated capability. Asia Times. https://asiatimes.com/2025/08/mysterious-chinese-stealth-jet-a-fresh-test-for-us-air-dominance/#
Latham, A. (July 21, 2025). The Chinese H-20 stealth bomber has just one mission. National Security Journal. https://nationalsecurityjournal.org/chinas-h-20-stealth-bomber-has-just-1-mission/
Newdick, T. and Rogoway, T. (August 5, 2025). New Chinese tactical stealth aircraft deploys. The War Zone. https://www.twz.com/air/new-chinese-stealth-tactica-jet-breaks-cover
Lieutenant Colonel Octavio Pérez is a U.S. Army intelligence officer with extensive experience, having served more than two decades on active duty and in other reserve assignments. He specializes in nuclear, biological, and chemical intelligence and commanded operations at Fort Leonard Wood, serving in the Republic of Korea. At the Defense Intelligence Agency, he focused on North Korean military analysis and responded to crises related to the Achille Lauro and TWA 847 incidents. Pérez volunteered with the 1st Cavalry Division during Operation Shield/Desert Storm and later served as Chief Intelligence Instructor at the U.S. Army School of the Americas, training Latin American officers in low-intensity conflicts. His career in the reserves culminated at U.S. Southern Command as a strategic intelligence officer (J2 Ops).
Comments