Jesús Daniel Romero and William Acosta for Poder & Dinero and FinGurú
The current political turmoil in Venezuela highlights the complexities and challenges of negotiating with adversarial regimes. The Venezuelan regime, under Nicolás Maduro, has demonstrated a remarkable ability to learn from its predecessors, particularly from its Cuban counterparts. Over the years, the regime has adapted numerous strategies and tactics to prolong its hold on power, often at the expense of international diplomatic norms and expectations. U.S.-led efforts to negotiate favorable conditions that would create a pathway for a transition from Maduro's regime to the Venezuelan opposition have failed under Biden's agonizing and inexperienced leadership. Jorge Rodríguez of Venezuela clearly surpassed all the cohesive diplomatic strategies employed by Biden’s lead negotiator, Juan González.
One of the most significant tactics employed by the Venezuelan regime is the art of negotiation itself. The term "negotiate" has evolved into a long-term strategy for Venezuelan leadership, allowing them to delay or prolong U.S. demands. By engaging in dialogue, they create an illusion of cooperation while simultaneously buying time to consolidate their positions and undermine any pressure from the international community. This approach not only buys them precious time but also fosters a narrative that they are open to dialogue and reform, which can be misleading for both national and international observers.
Previous secret negotiations during Joe Biden's presidency between Juan González, a key advisor to the president, and Jorge Rodríguez, the head of the Venezuelan National Assembly, have highlighted the extent to which Maduro's regime can manipulate diplomatic efforts. These discussions revealed that a nation often labeled as a "third world" country is quite capable of maneuvering against a "first world" power. The Venezuelan regime has effectively leveraged its resources and intelligence networks, similar to those employed by Cuba, to gain information and advantages within the U.S. government. This capability demonstrates the regime's strategic acumen and the importance of understanding its underlying motivations and methods.
The implications for U.S. foreign policy are significant. The Trump administration, in particular, must recognize that time is on Maduro's side unless it is willing to adopt a more aggressive stance in negotiations. The administration must be ready to employ blunt negotiating strategies that prioritize the interests of the U.S. and its allies over the deceptive tactics of the Venezuelan government.
A crucial step in this process is to reevaluate the current sanctions imposed against the Venezuelan regime. The Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has issued various licenses and sanctions aimed at crippling Maduro's government. However, there is a growing sentiment that some of these measures could be eased without achieving significant progress toward a governmental transition in Venezuela. The Trump administration must adopt a clear policy: no sanction against the Venezuelan regime should be lifted unless it directly leads to a power transition in favor of the opposition leader and president, Edmundo González Urrutia.
To enhance the effectiveness of these sanctions against the Venezuelan regime, the international community should consider implementing more proactive sanctions. These could include specific asset freezes, the imposition of sanctions targeting key sectors of the Venezuelan economy, prohibiting the export of certain critical goods and services for the Venezuelan economy, implementing a total embargo on Venezuelan oil exports, preventing U.S. and allied financial institutions from conducting transactions with state-owned Venezuelan companies linked to the regime, imposing penalties on foreign companies and entities that continue to do business with Maduro's regime, identifying individuals and companies involved in corruption linked to Maduro's regime, deteriorating diplomatic relations and expelling diplomats from countries that support Maduro's regime, imposing sanctions specifically targeting individuals involved in human rights violations, providing financial and logistical support to legitimate opposition groups within Venezuela, demanding transparency in transactions with state-owned Venezuelan companies, and imposing travel restrictions on regime officials and their associates.
This approach not only ensures that the U.S. maintains influence over Maduro's regime, but also sends a strong message to other authoritarian governments that the consequences of an oppressive government will not be overlooked. The U.S. must remain steadfast in its commitment to democratic principles and human rights, recognizing that negotiations with regimes like Venezuela often carry significant risks.
Furthermore, the international community must support a united front against Maduro's regime. Engaging with regional allies and partners can create a robust coalition that amplifies pressure on the Venezuelan government. By coordinating sanctions and diplomatic efforts, the U.S. and its allies can increase the likelihood of a successful transition to democracy in Venezuela.
The dangers of negotiating with the enemy go beyond mere tactics; they also encompass broader implications for U.S. foreign policy. Engaging in ineffective dialogue can lead to a false sense of progress, allowing Maduro's regime to entrench itself further in power. The longer negotiations drag on without significant results, the more legitimacy the regime will gain, both nationally and internationally. This legitimacy can hinder efforts to mobilize support for a democratic transition, as it creates the impression that the regime is a stable and recognized government capable of engaging in international diplomacy.
Moreover, the Venezuelan regime has demonstrated a willingness to exploit any concession made during negotiations. For example, they may use the promise of reform or adherence to democratic norms as a bargaining chip to gain economic relief or political recognition, only to backtrack once they secure their interests. This cycle of deception can erode trust among international partners and complicate future diplomatic efforts.
Additionally, the humanitarian crisis in Venezuela adds another layer of complexity to the negotiations. With millions of Venezuelans facing severe shortages of food, medicine, and basic services, the international community is under increasing pressure to respond. This humanitarian imperative may lead to calls for a more conciliatory approach toward Maduro's regime, potentially undermining the firm stance that is necessary for real change. Balancing the need for humanitarian assistance with a strong commitment to hold the regime accountable presents a significant challenge for policymakers.
Furthermore, the role of external actors, such as Russia and China, complicates the negotiation landscape further. Both nations have historically supported Maduro's regime, providing it with financial assistance and military resources. Their involvement not only bolsters the regime's power but also complicates U.S. efforts to diplomatically and economically isolate Venezuela. Engaging in negotiations without addressing the influence of these external actors may lead to a fragmented approach that fails to achieve significant results.
The Maduro regime has employed various deceptive tactics over the years to maintain power, manipulate public perception, and undermine opposition efforts. Some of these tactics include false promises of reform, manipulation of elections, media control and propaganda, disinformation campaigns, division of the opposition, humanitarian rhetoric, use of fear and intimidation, negotiation as a stalling tactic, co-opting social programs, international alliances, selective law enforcement, and control of humanitarian aid.
These deceptive strategies illustrate just how far the Maduro regime is willing to go to retain power and control over the Venezuelan population while undermining any potential threats to its authority. Understanding these tactics is crucial for formulating effective responses from both national and international actors.
In conclusion, the dangers of negotiating with the enemy are numerous and multifaceted, particularly when dealing with a regime that has mastered the art of deception. The Venezuelan government's ability to manipulate negotiations and prolong its existence poses a significant challenge for U.S. foreign policy. It is essential that the Trump administration, along with the international community, adopts a firm stance that prioritizes accountability and transparency. By doing so, the U.S. can create an environment conducive to meaningful change in Venezuela and ensure that future negotiations do not merely serve as a tool for the regime to delay the inevitable. As history has shown, the stakes are high, and the consequences of misguided diplomacy can extend beyond Venezuela's borders, impacting regional stability and global security. The time for decisive action is now, as the opportunity for a democratic transition in Venezuela hangs in the balance.
Credits: Information derived from various news sources, including The Washington Post, The New York Times, Reuters, and BBC News.
Jesús Romero retired after 37 years of service in the U.S. government, spanning military, intelligence, and diplomatic roles. He began his career in the Navy in 1984, rising from enlisted member to Naval Intelligence Officer through the Navy’s Enlisted Commissioning Program. Graduating from Norfolk State University with a degree in Political Science, Romero also completed Naval Aviation Pre-Flight Training and served in various capacities, including aboard a nuclear missile cruiser and in attack squadrons. His deployments included Libya, Bosnia, Iraq, and Somalia. The intelligence career of Romero included key assignments with the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) in Panama, the Pacific Joint Intelligence Center in Hawaii, and leading U.S. efforts to locate missing personnel in Asia. He retired from active duty in 2006, decorated with numerous medals such as the Defense Meritorious Service Medal and the Navy Commendation Medal. After his military career, Romero worked as a defense contractor for BAE Systems and Booz Allen Hamilton. He spent 15 years in civil service as an Intelligence Operations Specialist at the Army Department in the Southern Joint Interagency Task Force in Florida. His diplomatic roles abroad included periods in Peru, Ecuador, and Guatemala. Romero has been widely recognized, including the Joint Meritorious Civilian Service Medal from the Chiefs of Staff, the Army Superior Civilian Service Medal, and multiple international awards for his contributions to counter-narcotics missions. Romero wrote his last book to honor his colleagues and illuminate disruptive strategies against an international criminal organization, which under his leadership significantly hindered cocaine trafficking to the United States. His efforts contributed to dismantling operations that supported Mexican cartels and reduced the cocaine air bridge by over 120 tons annually.
He is the author of the Amazon best seller book titled "The Final Flight: The Queen of the Air."
William Acosta is the founder and CEO of Equalizer Private Investigations & Security Services Inc. He has coordinated investigations related to international drug trafficking, money laundering, and homicides in the U.S. and other countries around the world such as Germany, Italy, Portugal, Spain, France, England, and literally, all of Latin America.
William has been a New York Police Investigator for 10 years, 2 years in the Department of Treasury, and 6 years in the U.S. Army with several international deployments on communications and intelligence issues.
CAREER AND EXPERIENCE
William Acosta, a veteran international investigator, coordinated multijurisdictional investigations on drug trafficking, money laundering, and homicides in the United States and other countries.
Acosta's martial arts training in taekwondo reached the 6th dan, practicing it traditionally as a lifestyle and not just for fighting.
The transition from police to private investigation allowed Acosta to make his own rules and choose clients after more than 20 years in the profession.
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