The recent election of Donald Trump has sparked a series of questions about the future of international relations and the role of the United States on the global stage. Following a first term marked by the “America First” policy, the expectations surrounding his political and economic decisions are generating various reactions and speculations at the international level. This analysis explores the possible consequences of a new Trump presidency on U.S. foreign policy and the impact on international actors.
During his first term, Trump implemented an "America First" policy that prioritized the economic and security interests of the United States over multilateral commitments and traditional alliances. A nationalist strategy focused on several key areas, such as trade, foreign policy, national security, and energy, aimed to restore American competitiveness and economic self-sufficiency.
This strategy profoundly impacted the United States' external links, as it was based on measures that prioritized protectionism and a unilateral stance. Trump promoted a protectionist trade policy aimed at renegotiating or withdrawing from agreements that, from his perspective, were unfavorable to the United States. On the international level, he redirected the country towards withdrawing from or reducing participation in multilateral organizations and agreements, advocating for less dependence on military and financial commitments abroad and encouraging NATO allies and other alliances to take on greater responsibilities for defense. His administration maintained a policy of strong pressure on countries such as China and Iran, implemented strict immigration restrictions to protect American jobs and wages, and promoted energy independence by boosting domestic oil and gas production. Consequently, relations with several traditional allies and the dynamics within international organizations were affected. The question now is: will he maintain this stance or will he be forced to adapt to the new global context? A possible return of Trump to the presidency could consolidate a foreign policy that is less committed to multilateralism and more protectionist, generating uncertainty among global actors.
Main areas of impact on international policy
The tension between the United States and China solidified as a key axis during the previous administration, triggering a trade war with significant effects on the global economy. Now, it is likely that his new term will seek to maintain a firm stance against China, especially in sensitive areas such as technology and investment in developing countries. As part of his campaign announcements, he has promised to impose tariffs of up to 60% on Chinese products, accusing China of abusive trade practices. His stance again pits the two largest economies against each other in a trade war, impacting global supply chains and affecting the economies of the Asia-Pacific region. Despite the interdependence between the two nations, Trump could intensify controls over Chinese ownership in U.S. infrastructure and generate greater distrust in Asian markets.
China, in response, is preparing to launch an economic stimulus package, increasing its spending by up to 20% to mitigate the consequences of a new tariff escalation. This rivalry context encourages Asian "tigers," such as South Korea and Japan, to maintain a delicate balance between the U.S. and China. On the other hand, Taiwan becomes a potential flashpoint in the region, given the rhetoric of both countries.
In this Asian context, a greater militarization of the Indo-Pacific could be generated, along with a defensive reaction from China in areas of strategic interest. Moreover, the withdrawal policy promoted by the Trump administration, which included the U.S. exit from important international agreements such as the Paris Agreement on climate change and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), created a vacuum in multilateral cooperation that other actors have begun to fill. These actions, grounded in a vision of protectionism and a retreat of American leadership in favor of a more unilateral foreign policy, have weakened spaces for dialogue and international coordination, particularly in the realm of regional security and trade.
A new Trump presidency could further challenge the influence of the U.S. in international organizations. During his previous term, Trump showed a critical attitude toward organizations such as the UN, NATO, and the WTO. This time, he may try to limit participation or funding, weakening the ability of these organizations to address global challenges such as climate change or migration. This unilateral approach could push other countries to take on leadership roles and seek new cooperation mechanisms without the predominant presence of the U.S.
Regarding NATO, he has reaffirmed his refusal to provide unconditional support to alliance members, also demanding that allies increase their defense budgets. This stance introduces serious risks to stability in Eastern Europe, especially in light of threats from Russia. Countries like Poland and the Baltic states could feel compelled to increase their military spending, opening a new chapter of insecurity and self-defense in the region.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has congratulated Trump and highlighted the relevance of his leadership. However, among Eastern members, there remains fear of a possible withdrawal of support in the event of conflict. This unilateral approach also questions the continuity of support for Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression, raising the possibility of a redefinition of European defense policy and putting pressure on the European Commission to explore security alternatives.
The relationship between the United States and the European Union became strained under Trump's first administration due to trade policies and divergences on defense and climate change issues. In this new presidency, European leaders may face the challenge of once again adapting to a less cooperative relationship. This could mean higher trade barriers, primarily due to his statements on increasing import duties on various products. The EU, for its part, could redouble its efforts to strengthen its strategic autonomy and trade agreements with other partners like Asia and Latin America.
With Trump's return, protectionism takes center stage in international trade. The rising dollar and tariff sanctions will increase the cost of foreign goods in the U.S., affecting the economies of the European Union, Japan, Mexico, and other key trading partners. His policy of attracting manufacturing back to the U.S. and cutting taxes may incentivize internal investment but increases trade friction.
This scenario poses challenges for the World Trade Organization (WTO) and other multilateral organizations, whose capacity to mediate and resolve trade disputes may be limited by U.S. intransigence.
His former stance on Latin America was firm, especially regarding migration and trade with Mexico. In this new administration, he may once again strengthen immigration control policies, with intensified border operations affecting not only Mexico but also Central America. His statements during the electoral campaign showed a zero-tolerance stance, with the resumption of wall construction on the Mexico border and a tightening of deportation policies, especially against those linked to criminal activities.
Trade agreements such as the T-MEC could be revised, causing uncertainty for the region's economies. Furthermore, reduced cooperation on security and drug trafficking could further destabilize relations between the U.S. and several Latin American countries.
During Trump's first term, his explicit support for Israel and Saudi Arabia considerably modified the power dynamics in the Middle East, facilitating the signing of the Abraham Accords. His return to the presidency could reaffirm this support, intensifying pressure on Iran and increasing regional divisions. In this context, it is likely that U.S. positions in conflicts like Syria and Yemen will be reviewed, jeopardizing the fragile balance in the region.
Trump's stance towards Israel and his confrontational policy with Iran will remain firm, with the potential to escalate tensions in the Middle East. Although this position could disincentivize the actions of groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, it increases the risk of direct confrontation with Iran, a situation that concerns Western allies. The Palestinian issue, meanwhile, is at a critical juncture; Trump's policies, similar to those of Harris, have been perceived by Palestinians as a constant disregard for their claims in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
In the climate realm, Trump has shown a skeptical rhetoric, labeling climate change as a "hoax." While this stance already led the U.S. to withdraw from the Paris Agreement during his first term, it is likely that in a new administration, national energy industry priorities will be further emphasized, minimizing environmental regulations. This could reduce U.S. influence in global climate cooperation, undermining international efforts in the face of this crisis. Finally, multinational companies would also face the impact of protectionist policies, with tariffs and import restrictions affecting operations in key sectors such as technology, pharmaceuticals, and automotive.
In conclusion, a second term for Trump would consolidate a scenario of global tension and a retreat from multilateral cooperation, marking a shift towards a system of blocks with stricter alliances and polarized positions. The reaffirmation of American unilateralism and protectionism, along with a confrontational stance towards powers like China and Russia, could intensify the distancing of the U.S. from multilateral organizations, pushing Europe, the Asia-Pacific, and Latin America to redefine their cooperation and autonomy strategies. Ultimately, the structure of the international order, based on norms and a cooperative approach, would be threatened, driving a strategic reorganization of global actors.
Comments