The confirmed death of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes — "El Mencho" — at the hands of Mexican special forces, with the support of U.S. intelligence, represents the most significant blow against organized crime in over a decade. However, its true impact will not be measured in headlines, but in signals of succession, financial flows, and operational adjustments.
As the founder of CJNG, Mencho built a vertically integrated criminal enterprise with diversified revenue: drug trafficking, fuel theft, extortion, illegal mining, human trafficking, and complex money laundering networks. That diversification is precisely what gives the organization resilience.
The elimination of a leader does not dismantle modern cartels — it tests their structure.
CJNG operates under a hybrid model: centralized strategic command with decentralized regional autonomy. This architecture suggests that contingency plans existed in anticipation of their leader's potential downfall.
The immediate risk is not collapse, but volatility.
In the next 60 to 90 days, three indicators will be key:
1. Clarity in succession — rapid consolidation or internal friction.
2. Patterns of violence — power adjustments at the regional level.
3. Financial continuity — maintenance of income flows and laundering.
Of these factors, money is the most revealing signal. Cartels fragment when the flow of income is interrupted. CJNG's penetration into semi-legitimate sectors — agriculture, logistics, fuel distribution, and informal financial systems — provides them with a protection that previous organizations lacked.
The joint nature of the operation also sends a strategic message: a renewed security coordination between Mexico and the United States. This alignment increases pressure on any successor leadership attempting to stabilize the structure without drawing attention.
The death of El Mencho is a symbolic victory. It removes a brutal and effective strategist.
But organizations of this magnitude do not rely solely on one person.
If CJNG manages a transition without affecting its financial flows, the structure will survive.
The real outcome will not be measured by the operation itself, but by the organization’s ability to adapt.
Structures outlive leaders.
For a deeper analysis of the structural evolution of cartels and the internal dynamics of organized crime in Mexico, I invite readers to consult my book *El Reinado del Terror*, where I explore these transformations from an operational and strategic perspective.
Leo Silva
Former DEA Special Agent
Author of *El Reinado del Terror*
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