Jesus Daniel Romero from Miami Strategic Intelligence Institute
As President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva prepares to host the 2025 BRICS Summit in Rio de Janeiro, his long-standing ambition to realign global power through South-South solidarity faces new geopolitical obstacles. By positioning Brazil as a champion of a multipolar world, Lula has promoted less dependence on the US dollar through local currency trade and alternative payment systems (Reuters, 2024a). However, as the summit approaches, symbolism clashes with strategic inertia.A vision surpassed by reality
India has publicly downplayed the prospects of a common currency for the BRICS, asserting that discussions are at a "very early stage" (Times of India, 2025). China is focusing on the internationalization of the yuan rather than building a shared monetary system. Russia, burdened by Western sanctions and wartime inflation, lacks the economic capacity to lead. South Africa remains economically stagnant.
Lula, once the main advocate for a unified financial identity for the BRICS, now faces the limits of Brazil's influence.
"We cannot remain trapped in the past, chained to financial systems that were not designed for us," Lula declared in a recent speech at the National Confederation of Industry.
He increasingly presents himself less as the founder of a new financial order and more as a mediator in a block dominated by conflicting national interests.
A frustrated host and a region in the passenger seat
While Brazil holds a seat at the BRICS table, it does not control the agenda. For much of Latin America, the bloc has offered more rhetoric than results. Despite repeated statements and the creation of the New Development Bank (NDB), tangible benefits for the region remain limited (Reuters, 2025c; New Development Bank, 2025).
Colombia's recent joining of the NDB has brought little so far in terms of new infrastructure or funding (AP News, 2025). Argentina's entry into the BRICS in 2024 during its economic crisis has yet to yield significant fiscal relief. Meanwhile, countries like Chile, Peru, and Uruguay, which maintain closer ties with Western institutions, remain on the sidelines of the initiative.
"BRICS offers symbolic solidarity," said Paulo Velasco, a professor of international relations in Rio. "But structurally, they reinforce the same hierarchies that Latin America has long sought to escape."
The disappointment of the Development Bank
Created in 2015 to finance infrastructure in the Global South, the NDB's impact on Latin America has been, at best, modest. According to its own data, only 14.8% of total approved financing has been allocated to Latin American countries, mainly Brazil and mostly to pre-approved projects (New Development Bank, 2025). In contrast, the largest recipients remain China and India.
This funding imbalance points to a deeper structural problem. The BRICS is a consensus-driven forum, but its internal decision-making and capital distribution significantly favor its larger Asian members. Without governance reforms, the bloc risks replicating the same inequalities that its creation aimed to combat.
Trade platform or influence tool?
BRICS Pay, a digital settlement platform, has been touted as a major breakthrough in de-dollarization efforts. However, experts warn that it could benefit China's geopolitical strategy more than regional empowerment. Trade in yuan is expanding, while currencies like the Brazilian real and the Argentine peso remain peripheral and volatile (Coquidé et al., 2023).
"This is not de-dollarization. It's a possible re-yuanization," noted a Latin American financial official.
Trade patterns also remain unchanged. Latin America continues to export raw materials while importing high-value manufactured goods, particularly from China. The structural dependence is economic, but its consequences are strategic.
Lula's multipolar gamble and the way forward
Faced with limited progress toward reform within the BRICS, Lula has opted for diplomatic dialogue. He continues to advocate for financial sovereignty, regional resilience, and a BRICS that reflects the aspirations of the Global South. These themes resonate, but without tangible institutional change, their impact remains symbolic.
If Brazil intends to strengthen its role in defining international norms, it may need to seek other avenues. Strengthening regional initiatives through CELAC and MERCOSUR could provide more focused financial cooperation. These forums, although smaller in scale, can generate more aligned interests and greater space for leadership.
"If Brazil and its allies want real influence," declared a former finance minister, "they must demand rule-based equity, not just formal inclusion."
Conclusion: Present at the table, absent from the strategic plan
The Rio summit is likely to showcase strong rhetoric on solidarity, development, and sovereignty. But unless structural reforms are implemented, the BRICS will continue to function as a geopolitical stage dominated by a few, rather than as a platform for collective advancement.
Latin America may have a seat at the table, but still lacks a voice in designing the strategic plan.
References
AP News. (June 17, 2025). Colombia seeks to join the China-based development bank as Latin America distances itself from Washington. https://apnews.com/article/ae2f3b0da5c330c0cf051351857d1771
Coquidé, C., Lages, J. and Shepelyansky, D.L. (2023). Perspectives on BRICS monetary dominance in international trade [Preprint]. arXiv. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2305.00585
New Development Bank. (2025). Approved projects and breakdown by countries. Retrieved June 22, 2025 from https://www.ndb.int/projects
Reuters. (October 23, 2024a). Lula, the Brazilian president, urges the BRICS to create alternative payment methods. https://www.reuters.com/technology/brazils-lula-urges-brics-create-alternative-payment-methods-2024-10-23/
Reuters. (December 17, 2024b). Explained: What is a BRICS currency and is the US dollar in trouble? https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/what-is-brics-currency-is-us-dollar-trouble-2024-12-17/
Reuters. (February 13, 2025a). Brazil rejects the BRICS currency and seeks less reliance on the mighty dollar. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/brazil-nixes-brics-currency-eyes-less-reliance-mighty-dollar-2025-02-13/
Reuters. (May 19, 2025b). The director of Brazil's Central Bank states that there is no BRICS asset pile large enough to compete with the dollar. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/no-brics-asset-pile-big-enough-rival-dollar-brazil-central-bank-director-says-2025-05-19/
Reuters. (June 19, 2025c). Colombia announces its accession to the BRICS New Development Bank. https://www.reuters.com/latam/negocio/LJ2A4UMP5FLBJIL4KT57R6ILTI-2025-06-19/
Jesus Daniel Romero is a Retired Commander of US Naval Intelligence, Co-founder and Senior Fellow of Miami Strategic Intelligence Institute. He is a writer and a permanent consultant on issues of his specialty for media in the state of Florida, United States. Columnist for the Diario Las Américas, in the city of Miami.
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