Every time a tension threatens the supply chain, energy comes back to the center of the strategic debate. This happened with the oil crisis of 1973, with the Russian invasion of Ukraine regarding gas, and it occurs today with the tensions around the Strait of Hormuz.
From oil to electricity
If in the 20th century energy supply was dominated by "petrostates," the 21st century is beginning to give rise to the so-called "electrostates": countries whose power largely depends on their ability to generate, store, and manage electricity and develop technology.
Electricity is becoming a strategic input as important as oil was for the industrial economy, while nuclear energy is experiencing renewed global interest. As engineer Alfredo García (@operadornuclear), a consultant for the International Atomic Energy Agency, argues, “this is not a war between renewables and nuclear energy; they must work together.”
Meanwhile, oil and gas will continue to be indispensable for agriculture, the chemical industry, pharmaceutical production, and thousands of industrial processes.
But the axis of power is beginning to shift from fuel control to the dominance of the technologies that support the new economy of electricity. Especially as data centers are being incorporated that function as true energy players, consuming energy on a city scale and choosing their location based on electrical availability.
Engineer Luciano Silva, an energy storage specialist for Latin America at one of the largest Chinese solar energy companies, presents an idea that changes the way to understand the energy transition. For countries like Chile, he explains, there is no such transition because they never had abundant fossil fuels: "The real change is moving from a reality where energy was scarce to a reality where non-conventional renewable energy - solar and wind - abounds. What is currently scarce is the management of that variable renewable energy”.
Batteries become the enabling technology for that transformation.
Black gold and lithium, the crown jewels?
This change finds Argentina in an exceptional position. Few countries simultaneously have unconventional oil and gas (Vaca Muerta), lithium, copper, and uranium, a nuclear industry developed for more than seven decades, technology companies capable of exporting reactors, a highly competitive agribusiness sector, and engineering, metalworking, and specialized service providers around the energy sector.
It also has a strategic geography: a relevant position in the South Atlantic with Antarctic projection and bioceanic communication. In a world where energy, food, critical minerals, maritime routes, and security intersect again, the map matters.
To this, we add another less visible but equally strategic asset: Rafael Grossi at the helm of the International Atomic Energy Agency and his candidacy for the UN Secretary-General reflect scientific, technological, and diplomatic capabilities built over decades.
The abundance trap
But having resources has never been enough. History offers numerous examples of countries rich in raw materials that did not achieve sustained development. This is the "paradox of plenty" (or resource curse): exporting resources while others transform them into investment and added value. The speed of technological evolution exacerbates this risk. While Argentina debates how to leverage lithium, China is already developing sodium batteries, a mineral widely available. The resource changes; the ability to innovate remains.
Political dumping
The real opportunity lies in using the foreign currency generated by this geopolitical window to build permanent capacities. Here appears a challenge that exceeds energy. I call this structural problem "political dumping": the difficulty of sustaining long-term strategies in systems with high political turnover. A nuclear power plant, an electrical grid, or a technological ecosystem requires decades; electoral calendars are often measured in months.
None of these transformations depend exclusively on the market or the state. They require political agreements capable of surviving government changes and guiding investments whose results will only be visible one or two decades later.
Norway used oil revenue to build one of the largest sovereign wealth funds in the world and finance long-term capabilities. Australia turned its mining leadership into an ecosystem of engineering, technological services, and exportable knowledge.
Learn, baby, learn
In the Argentine case, the plot twist involves consolidating sectors where the country already has an advantage: nuclear industry, knowledge economy, industrial software, artificial intelligence applied to energy and mining, biotechnology, high-complexity engineering, technologies for agriculture, and services associated with the energy transition.
Energy returns to the center of geopolitics. Argentina has resources that few countries possess, but the difference between wealth and development will depend less on what it extracts from beneath the surface than on what it can build above it.
Juliana Montani
Graduate in Political Science from the University of Buenos Aires (UBA), specializing in International Relations, diploma from the INCAP School of Government. Analyst at the Institute of International Security and Strategic Affairs (ISIAE/CARI).
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