The pendulum is swinging: Bolivia and the end of the hegemonic cycle of the left in Latin America

Jesús Daniel Romero, Co-Founder and Senior Fellow at the Miami Strategic Intelligence Institute for FinGurú

The Collapse of the MAS

The numbers are compelling: while Rodrigo Paz (Christian Democratic Party) and Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga (Free Alliance) moved on to the second round with 32% and 27% respectively, the candidates from the MAS barely surpassed a combined 10% of the votes. An unprecedented defeat that shows the wear of a model based on state control, corruption, and ideological radicalization (Reuters, 2025a; AP News, 2025; El País, 2025).

Argentinian political scientist and diplomat Pedro Von Eyken succinctly summarized it: “We still know little about Paz Pereira, the surprising winner of the elections in Bolivia, beyond his identification with a centrist stance. A key factor will be the support of Samuel Doria Medina, another of the major candidates who has already expressed his backing for Pereira ahead of the runoff. Beyond the uncertainties about the new leadership, the result sends a clear message: the MAS and Evo Morales received a resounding defeat that reshapes the Bolivian political landscape.”

The Regional Pendulum

Bolivia is not an isolated case. In recent years, significant changes have been observed in the Latin American political map:

• Argentina: Javier Milei has broken the Peronist monopoly.

• Ecuador: Daniel Noboa implements shock policies against organized crime.

• El Salvador: Nayib Bukele has consolidated a right-wing security model.

• Guatemala: the citizenry is challenging traditional corrupt structures.

These examples show an electorate tired of unfulfilled promises and eternal political hegemonies, beginning to demand economic pragmatism, security, and governance.

Venezuela and the Exhaustion of 21st Century Socialism

One of the structural factors behind the collapse of the MAS is the end of the Venezuelan checkbook. During the years of oil bonanza (2005–2013), Venezuela financed allied projects through soft loans, subsidized oil, and programs such as Petrocaribe and ALBA. With these resources, Caracas sustained friendly governments like that of Evo Morales in Bolivia.

Today, that ability has vanished:

• The Venezuelan economy is devastated by international sanctions and corruption within PDVSA.

• The Maduro regime, controlled by the Cartel of the Suns (designated SDGT in 2025), allocates its scarce resources to its political and military survival.

• The network of external subsidies has collapsed, leaving parties like the MAS exposed to the real test of governing with their own resources.

Without support from Caracas, "21st Century Socialism" today lacks the transnational financial backing that made it a regional bloc.

Bolivia as a Barometer

Bolivia emerges as a barometer of the downfall of 21st Century Socialism for several reasons:

1. It was part of the ideological core alongside Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua.

2. It depended on Venezuelan oil financing to sustain social programs.

3. Its electoral collapse is the first major defeat of the bloc in the region.

4. The runoff in October will confirm whether Bolivia definitively joins the regional shift towards the center and the right.

Just as Bolivia was a laboratory of continental chavismo in the first decade of the 2000s, it may today become the first witnessing case of its structural collapse.

Washington and the Trump Doctrine: The Decisive Moment

For Washington, what happened in Bolivia is not just an electoral change: it is a strategic window. During the first two decades of the 21st century, 21st Century Socialism—backed by Venezuela and Cuba—was designed to erode American hegemony in the hemisphere while the United States maintained its focus on the Middle East and the wars against terrorism.

With the arrival of Donald Trump, U.S. foreign policy adopted a doctrine of total pressure against the regimes of Caracas, Havana, and Managua.

This strategy included:

• Unprecedented economic sanctions.

• Diplomatic recognition of the Venezuelan opposition.

• Reinforcement of hemispheric cooperation against drug trafficking and terrorism.

• The recent designation of the Cartel of the Suns as a SDGT organization (2025).

In this context, the defeat of the MAS in Bolivia represents for Washington the opportunity to consolidate the fall of the chavista bloc and reorder the continental balance. It is a historic moment: the narrative of 21st Century Socialism, which once exported power and propaganda, is now becoming a retreating project.

This is the key geopolitical moment for the United States, with regional allies, to implement the Trump Doctrine and definitively close the chavista cycle that for years was used to challenge its hemispheric leadership.

Conclusion

The election in Bolivia demonstrated that 21st Century Socialism can also be defeated at the polls. Neither the MAS could maintain its hegemony, nor did the other allied governments—Venezuela, Cuba, or Nicaragua—manage to provide enough support to prevent collapse. The project that was sold as irreversible has been reduced to an electoral minority, confirming that the regional political pendulum is moving and that the citizen vote remains the most powerful tool against authoritarian regimes.

Bolivia not only breaks with two decades of MAS hegemony: it also reflects the exhaustion of Venezuelan influence and becomes a thermometer of the end of 21st Century Socialism. For Washington, this is the moment to apply the Trump Doctrine and ensure that this cycle is conclusively closed.

References

Al Jazeera. (2025, August 17). Bolivia heads to the polls as 20 years of leftist rule expected to end. Al Jazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/17/bolivia-heads-to-the-polls-as-20-years-of-leftist-rule-expected-to-end

AP News. (2025, August 18). Bolivia heads to a runoff after an election ends two decades of ruling party dominance. AP News. https://apnews.com/article/7d24bfd2bc87e4f312d574663aee9f5d

El País. (2025, August 18). Rodrigo Paz and Tuto Quiroga will contest the presidency of Bolivia in October. El País. https://elpais.com/america/2025-08-18/rodrigo-paz-y-tuto-quiroga-se-disputaran-la-presidencia-de-bolivia-en-octubre.html

Reuters. (2025, August 18). Bolivia heads to runoff after right turn in the presidential vote. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/bolivia-heads-runoff-after-right-turn-presidential-vote-2025-08-18/

Reuters. (2025, August 18). Who are Bolivia’s presidential runoff contenders promising economic overhaul? Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/who-are-bolivias-presidential-runoff-contenders-promising-economic-overhaul-2025-08-18/

Lieutenant Commander Jesús D. Romero is a retired intelligence officer from the United States Navy and Army with 37 years of combined service. He worked on defense contracts for British Aerospace Systems and Booz Allen Hamilton and was deployed aboard the USS America in Bosnia, Iraq, and Sudan. Subsequently, he commanded a unit of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) in Panama, overseeing operations in Central and South America. A bestselling author on Amazon, he is a frequent expert commentator on radio, television, YouTube, and print media.