9 days ago - politics-and-society

The possibility of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine under the Trump administration.

By Poder & Dinero

The possibility of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine under the Trump administration.

Oleksandr Slyvchuk from Kyiv, Ukraine, for Poder & Dinero and FinGurú

Since his presidential campaign and after his victory in the 2024 elections, Donald Trump has reiterated his intention to achieve a swift peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. However, the feasibility of this proposal faces serious political and strategic obstacles.

An unfeasible agreement due to territorial issues

From Ukraine's perspective, accepting an agreement that does not include the return of occupied territories is politically impossible. The Ukrainian Constitution defines its borders as unalterable, and any territorial concession would be seen as a betrayal both by society and by the political elite. Moreover, ceding territory would set a dangerous precedent, encouraging future aggressions and weakening national security in the long term. From Russia's perspective, returning the occupied territories of its neighbor is highly unlikely with Vladimir Putin's regime in power. His political legitimacy has been consolidated around territorial expansion. Therefore, the possibility of a quick agreement is extremely low. Ukraine cannot accept territorial loss without compromising its sovereignty and internal stability, and Russia has no incentives to return what it has occupied.

Beyond the territorial issue, the Trump administration would face other significant challenges to achieve a sustainable ceasefire.

Security guarantees for Ukraine. Ukraine is not only seeking to recover its territories but also to prevent future Russian aggressions. Without immediate NATO membership, Kyiv would demand solid security commitments, similar to those of Israel or South Korea. However, Russia rejects any Western military presence in Ukraine and would try to keep the country within its sphere of influence. Without clear guarantees, any agreement would merely be a temporary truce before a new Russian offensive.

Divisions among Western allies. The EU and NATO have supported Ukraine with sanctions against Russia and military assistance. An agreement imposed by Trump without considering European interests could generate a diplomatic crisis between the U.S. and its allies. Countries like Poland and the Baltic States fear that a forced peace benefitting Russia would encourage future aggressions. If Trump reduces U.S. support for Ukraine, it could create divisions within NATO and weaken the Western stance toward Russia.

Resistance within Ukraine. Any agreement involving significant concessions could face strong internal opposition in Ukraine. If President Volodymyr Zelensky or any other Ukrainian leader were to accept territorial loss or forced neutrality, it could politically destabilize the country and generate massive protests.

NATO and China's participation in a peace negotiation would be crucial but also problematic. NATO has been Ukraine's main military and political support. If Trump attempts to impose an agreement that does not guarantee the country's security, European allies—particularly Poland, the Baltic States, and the UK—are likely to oppose it and seek to continue their military support for Kyiv. Without a clear U.S. commitment, NATO could face a leadership crisis, potentially favoring Moscow.

China, for its part, has strategically supported Russia without directly involving itself in the war. Although it has proposed peace plans, these have been vague and favorable to Moscow. Beijing views the conflict as a way to wear down the West without taking direct risks, and it is unlikely to pressure Russia to withdraw from Ukraine. However, if Trump and Xi Jinping find common ground on other issues (such as trade), China could influence Moscow to accept a truce under certain conditions.

The reconstruction of Ukraine: a colossal economic challenge. The reconstruction of Ukraine after the war will require a multibillion-dollar investment and decades of work. According to estimates from the World Bank, the cost of reconstruction could exceed $500 billion and continue to rise.

Ukraine alone cannot finance its reconstruction in the short to medium term. Its economy has suffered a devastating impact, with a declining GDP, destruction of critical infrastructure, and a reduction in the workforce due to migration. Economic assistance from the West will be crucial, including funds from the U.S., the EU, and international organizations like the IMF and the World Bank. Ukraine will also seek to leverage frozen Russian assets abroad, although this measure faces legal challenges.

Trump has been critical of economic aid to other countries and could reduce direct funding to Ukraine, demanding that Europe shoulder most of the reconstruction costs. He is likely to promote private investment models, encouraging U.S. companies to invest in Ukraine instead of providing government subsidies.

Guarantees for enforcing a possible peace agreement

To prevent a peace agreement from being unilaterally violated, it would be necessary to implement guarantee mechanisms, such as:

-          Solid defense commitments for Ukraine, such as NATO membership or bilateral agreements with Western powers.

-          Western military bases in Ukraine, as is the case in other conflicts, like in Cyprus or South Korea.

-          Demilitarized zones on the border with Russia to reduce the risk of new offensives.

-          Automatic sanctions against Russia in case of a violation of the agreement.

However, at the moment, there are no signs that Russia or Ukraine are ready to negotiate on realistic terms. For Putin's regime, the war remains an instrument for its existence, while Ukraine will not accept territorial concessions. A change of government in the U.S. could influence diplomacy, but without solid guarantees, any agreement would merely be a temporary pause before the conflict resumes.

Oleksandr is a Ukrainian political analyst at the Transatlantic Dialogue Center, a think tank based in Kyiv, where he coordinates the Spain-Latin America Cooperation Program. Within the center, Oleksandr actively cooperates with Spanish-speaking media, political analysis centers, and decision-makers in South America and Spain. He is currently pursuing his PhD in Political Science at the Autonomous University of Barcelona. International security, media propaganda, and intercultural communication are among his main fields of interest. He has gained valuable experience in international development projects during his previous position at the Ukrainian University, Institute of International Policy. He graduated from Masaryk University in the Czech Republic with a master's degree in Political Science and from Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv with a bachelor's degree in International Relations. He is fluent in English, Spanish, Ukrainian, and Russian.

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Poder & Dinero

Poder & Dinero

We are a group of professionals from various fields, passionate about learning and understanding what happens in the world, and its consequences, in order to transmit knowledge.
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