United States and Mexico: The New Stage of Confrontation Against Drug Trafficking
In January 2025, during his inaugural speech, President Donald Trump made it clear that his second term would place drug trafficking at the center of the bilateral agenda with Mexico. There, he anticipated his intention to designate Mexican cartels as foreign terrorist organizations (FTOs), stating that the neighboring country was “practically governed by the cartels.”
The strategy was consolidated in September when the executive included Mexico in the presidential list of countries involved in the production and transit of illegal drugs (Major’s List), alongside 22 other nations. A month later, Trump sent Congress a confidential document defining that the United States is in a “non-international armed conflict” with drug cartels, a legal framework that enables the White House to deploy special military powers, such as maritime operations against suspicious vessels in the Caribbean.
Data and Foundations of the Strategy
The fentanyl problem appears as one of the main justifications for this offensive. In 2023, U.S. authorities seized around 15 tons of this substance (13.1 tons of powder and 79 million pills). More than 90% of border seizures come from the Mexico-US corridor, with over 27,000 pounds intercepted that year at the southern border crossings, compared to much lower figures at the border with Canada.
While the Mexican government claims that fentanyl flows have decreased by 40% since Trump took office, U.S. data shows that the magnitude of the problem remains considerable. The president himself has indicated that border control measures and financial sanctions, which include asset freezes and rewards for cartel leaders, aim to raise the operational cost of criminal networks and restrict their distribution routes.
Mexico in Crisis
Mexico appears as a central actor in this policy, both due to the magnitude of the flows and its strategic role in the drug trafficking chain towards the United States. However, the measures taken by Washington have not been limited to Mexican territory: recent military operations have destroyed suspicious vessels in waters near Venezuela, justified under the same legal framework.
For Trump, cartels should be treated as “illegal combatants” in an undeclared war, which would allow for a broader scope of action in military and judicial terms. Senior officials argue that this approach seeks to address the limitations of previous strategies, which were focused solely on police cooperation.
Debates and Challenges
The classification of “armed conflict” has generated controversy in legal and diplomatic circles. International law experts warn that applying war-like categories to criminal organizations could open the door to abuses and clashes of sovereignty with Mexico. Opposing lawmakers have also questioned the White House’s advancement with this policy without explicit approval from Congress.
Despite these criticisms, the White House maintains that the urgency of the crisis justifies extraordinary measures. Financial markets and security agencies in the U.S. have supported the approach, noting that a firmer control of drug trafficking reinforces domestic security and sends a clear message to criminal groups in the region.
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