Jesús Daniel Romero and William Acosta for Poder & Dinero and FinGurú
A Change in the Global Scenario
Venezuela faces opposition to its potential entry into the block known as BRICS. According to various open information sources, it is not on the list of candidates that will be invited to BRICS membership during the upcoming meeting to be held in Russia this October. Apparently, Brazil has reservations about extending associate membership to Venezuela due to its economic situation and the questionable results of the presidential elections last July. According to the BRICS process, all member countries must agree on the admission of a new member, which does not exist at this time. If Venezuela does not receive an invitation for BRICS membership during this upcoming meeting in October, the Venezuelan regime will face defeat and be severely fragile compared to less wealthy and influential countries, which is a hard blow to 21st Century Socialism.
Since its creation in 2009, BRICS has worked to challenge Western dominance, promoting cooperation among emerging economies. This group seeks to reform the international financial system and foster fairer trade among its members. The recent expansion of the block, with the inclusion of new countries, underscores its growing relevance in the global landscape. Member and partner countries such as China, Iran, and Russia seek to evade international financial and banking restrictions. These countries particularly aim to evade sanctions imposed for violating international banking restrictions concerning the use of the US dollar. However, the decision to exclude Venezuela highlights a clear lack of alignment between BRICS principles and the current situation in the South American country.
Reasons Why Venezuela Does Not Qualify for BRICS
1. Economic Instability: Venezuela faces a severe crisis, with uncontrolled inflation and an economy that has contracted drastically. This instability hampers its ability to contribute effectively to the block and participate in cooperation initiatives.
2. High External Debt: With external debt exceeding $150 billion, the chavista government has lost its capacity to establish solid and sustainable international relationships, which limits its appeal as a BRICS member.
3. Lack of Control over Strategic Resources: The loss of control over key assets and capital flight has further weakened Venezuela's position in the international context, making its inclusion in a block like BRICS questionable.
4. International Pressure for Democracy: The increasing international pressure for Venezuela to transition to a democratic system has created an atmosphere of mistrust towards the Maduro regime, affecting its viability as a BRICS member, which promotes cooperation among countries that share certain democratic values and principles.
5. Diplomatic Isolation: The lack of support from other emerging economies and the isolation in which the Maduro regime is immersed make its inclusion in a group that seeks to strengthen relationships among its members difficult.
A Blow to the Chavista Regime's Aspirations
The exclusion of Venezuela from BRICS is not simply an issue of prestige; it reflects the critical economic and political situation facing the Maduro regime. Analysts suggest that this decision indicates a shift in support from emerging economies towards Maduro's government, highlighting an increasing isolation at a critical time for the country.
The Rise of Edmundo González Urrutia
With the recent election of Edmundo González Urrutia as the new president, set to take office in January 2025, there could be a significant change in Venezuela's political and diplomatic dynamics. If González Urrutia implements reforms that promote economic stability and democratization, it could open new opportunities for Venezuela to seek reentry into international forums like BRICS. His approach to international cooperation and improving relations could be crucial in revitalizing Venezuela's image on the global stage.
Implications for Venezuela's Political Future
The potential exclusion of Venezuela from BRICS underscores the need for a change in internal policy, and González Urrutia's arrival could be the first step towards reintegrating the country into the international arena. The lack of access to cooperation forums could intensify the outgoing regime's isolation and further undermine its global position.
Conclusions: An Uncertain Future for Maduro and New Hopes for Venezuela
The exclusion of Venezuela from BRICS is a diplomatic setback that can also be interpreted as evidence of the weakening of the Maduro regime. Amid unprecedented economic crisis and a challenging international landscape, global support is becoming increasingly scarce. The evolution of these events, especially with González Urrutia assuming power, will be crucial in determining the fate of Venezuela and its place in the international community, highlighting the urgent need for a renewed approach that allows the country to reintegrate into the global community. This uncertain future would require a comprehensive reconstruction plan for Venezuela at a very high cost, which Venezuela has the resources to overcome its current situation and mark a more viable economic future for its recovery.
William Acosta is the founder and CEO of Equalizer Private Investigations & Security Services Inc. He has coordinated investigations related to international drug trafficking, money laundering, and homicides in the U.S. and other countries such as Germany, Italy, Portugal, Spain, France, England, and literally, all of Latin America.
William has spent 10 years as a New York Police Investigator, 2 years in the Department of the Treasury, and 6 years in the American Army with various international deployments on communications and intelligence issues.
Jesús Romero served in the U.S. government for 37 years, encompassing military, intelligence, and diplomatic roles. He graduated from Norfolk University with a Bachelor's degree in Political Science, also completed Naval Aviation Pre-Flight training, and served in various capacities, including aboard a nuclear missile cruiser and in attack squadrons. His deployments included Libya, Bosnia, Iraq, and Somalia.
His career in intelligence had key assignments with the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) in Panama, the Joint Intelligence Center in Hawaii, and led U.S. efforts to locate missing personnel in Asia. He retired from active service in 2006, decorated with numerous medals including the Defense Meritorious Service Medal and the Navy Commendation Medal.
He spent 15 years in civil service as an Intelligence Operations Specialist in the Department of the Army, in the Southern Joint Interagency Task Force in Florida. After retirement, he worked as a defense contractor for BAE Systems and Booz Allen Hamilton.
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