The supreme leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

The Middle East region began a war process on October 7 that shook the region completely. What started as a defensive operation against a terrorist attack initiated a domino effect in the region, adding new actors to the conflict each passing day. In this context, the country that poses the greatest regional risk is the Islamic Republic of Iran. The Shiite nation has a growing and threatening nuclear program, and a direct war with Israel could trigger a conflict without parallels since World War II. 

The Iranian political system has often been categorized as a Radical Theocracy, but how are decisions made in a theocracy? Are there elections? How much influence does religion have in the country’s politics? How does this decision-making system affect the Iranian conflict?

Where do the Iranians come from?

Iranians belong to the Shiite branch of Islam, which emerged after the death of Muhammad, the supreme prophet and political leader of Islam. Muhammad's disappearance triggered an intense succession conflict that eventually led to the division of Islam into the factions we know today. The Shiites, who represent a minority, have a significant presence mainly in Iran, Iraq, and parts of Syria. This division not only marked theological and ritual differences but also influenced the political and social configuration of the regions where Shiites are the majority.

For years, much like in many majority Islamic countries, democracy was not implemented in Iran; instead, a secular dictatorial monarchy was established under the rule of the Shah. This regime guaranteed significant benefits to foreign investors through a modernization process that, according to the Islamic clergy, was transforming the country into an amoral nation far from God. During the Shah's reign, freedom of expression was severely restricted, and political opponents were persecuted by the secret police, known as SAVAK. This political repression included surveillance and persecution in Shiite mosques and against religious figures, although mosques often functioned as refuges for dissent.

Additionally, the Shah carried out an agricultural modernization that involved dismantling the feudal system in rural Iran. This reform disintegrated the social fabric, as many peasants received lands but lacked the necessary resources to cultivate them effectively. This led to a massive migration from the countryside to the city of conservative citizens who were discontent with the Shah's policies, only to find a city unprepared to accommodate them. The precarious living conditions, accumulated resentments, and the conservative and ultra-religious nature of these new urban inhabitants created the perfect breeding ground for the revolution that would erupt in 1979.

Internationally, the Shah of Iran was a fundamental ally of the United States in the region during that period, which may seem strange given the conflictiveness that Iran has generated in recent years. However, Iran was not only a strategic ally of the United States but also of Israel in the region. This alliance was part of a broader policy designed to maintain regional stability and counter the influence of the Soviet Union during the Cold War.

Religion and State, a unified issue:

In 1979, after months of intense urban protests, the Shah of Iran was forced to leave the country, officially for health reasons and "exhaustion." While the Shah left alone, without farewell ceremonies or significant honors, Ayatollah Khomeini, the Shiite religious leader who had been in exile since 1963, was preparing for his triumphant return. After years of exile first in Iraq and then in Paris, Khomeini returned to a country that received him with great expectation and excitement, ready to lead the long-awaited political and social reform.

However, the religious sector was not alone; within the revolutionary groups was the Tudeh Communist Party, which rallied key leftist sectors in social protests. This coalition of interests, combining socialist and Islamist elements, resulted in the synthesis that constitutes the Iran we know today.

In the Islamic Republic of Iran, decision-making structures operate in two spheres: the religious and the civil. This configuration is based on the doctrine of Velayat-e Faqih, a key concept in Shiite Islam that advocates for political supervision by religious authority. According to this doctrine, it is understood that democracy is guided by God, reflecting a tutelary democracy where political decisions must align with Islamic principles.

In practice, this system involves the existence of a Guardian Council, composed of clerics, which oversees whether laws and candidates for parliament and presidency comply with Islamic principles. This council is also responsible for selecting the Supreme Leader, who not only directs religious doctrine issues but also controls the armed forces and the judiciary, implementing the law of the Quran in what is often termed the Iranian "deep state."

Proxy groups operating against Israel, such as Hezbollah, emerge from this sector of the state. Politically, this relegates the President to a mainly administrative role in domestic affairs and, in many cases, acts as a thermometer of social trends, indicating whether it is time to harden or soften Islamic control measures over society.

Political Transformation and International Tensions

The transformation of Iran from a pro-Western monarchy under the Shah to a theocratic republic under Ayatollah Khomeini marked a significant turning point not only for Iran but for the entire Middle East region. The implementation of Velayat-e Faqih not only redefined Iran's internal political structure but also dramatically altered its foreign relations. The emergence of proxy groups like Hezbollah and the ongoing tension with Israel demonstrate how internal changes in Iran have had far-reaching repercussions, affecting the stability and political dynamics of the entire region.

The dual nature of the Iranian political system, which combines religious and civil elements, has created a unique governance model that, while ensuring religious control over politics, also allows for some form of electoral participation. This has generated a complex and often tense balance between different factions within Iran, continuously shaping both the country's internal politics and its international stance.