In November 2023, the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders' summit was held in the city of San Francisco, California, which culminated in the meeting between the President of the United States, Joe Biden, and his counterpart from the People's Republic of China, Xi Jinping. A meeting meticulously prepared for months by the diplomacy of both countries, in which the Chinese leader was enthusiastically received by an important group of American businessmen, eclipsing even Biden himself. But beware... this does not mean a turn in China's foreign policy, but a neat action originated in the internal problems that the Asian giant is going through.
Xi Jinpig is China. Knowing his personal history and his strategy to access and retain power can give us a clear idea about his objectives and strategies to achieve them, which, unlike what happens in most Western countries, are usually defined well in advance and sustained over time.
New Maoist revolution? The figures of Mao Tse Tung and Xi Jinping have been connected since the adolescence of the current president of the Chinese Communist Party. Not because of political affinity, precisely. Xi himself and his family were victims of Mao's purges. Xi Zhongxun, his father, was China's first vice-minister, and one of the founders of the communist guerrillas that operated in the north of the country. Despite his support for Mao, he was imprisoned, tortured and separated from his family. The young Xi was sent to a "re-education camp", where he became a faithful follower of his executioner. What happened in the head of this young man who was separated from his family and sent to a labor camp so that, as an adult, he could emulate his victimizer? We cannot answer this question from a political analysis, but we can mark events that support what we are saying.
As happened with Mao Tse Tung, Xi proclaims communism and the exacerbation of nationalism with hard and aggressive positions in foreign policy, emphasizes the history of China and its traditions with many references to Confucius, respect and obedience to hierarchies. Although in the latter case he has been the one who put an end to the alternation in the leadership of the Communist Party of China of only two terms, which had been maintained since 2012 as originally proposed by Deng Xiaoping. His intention to become leader for life is clear, and will shape his country's domestic and international policy.
Schools are also a fundamental tool for the territorial expansion strategy that Xi has in mind for China. In them, the use of military power is worshiped, trying to imprint that epic to the youth, even above the learning of issues related to technology. The glory of being able to die for China points to Xi's idea of recovering Taiwan before 2027. An imprint that even has its "Hollywood" side: the Chinese state finances movies where its army fights against the United States, South Korea or Japan... and triumphs, obviously. A kind of Chinese "Rambos" called "Fighting Wolves" are the protagonists.
These are facts, concrete and demonstrable. Xi Jinping's friendly attitude at the aforementioned APEC summit, beyond the correction that a meeting of this level demands, does not seem to coincide with this strategy. What is the reason, then, for this 2.0 reconceptualization of Maoism by Xi Jinping? In no way do we see a change in his expansionist strategy. Much less if we think of the silent purges he carries out, or the businessmen and ministers who mysteriously disappear in China, and of whom no information is ever heard again. Xi has basically two problems. An external one that has a first and last name: Donald Trump. During his administration, the former president and almost certain candidate of the Republican Party in the elections to be held in the United States in November, put an end to the economistic and naive vision of China, and strained relations. As a result, he obtained the rapprochement of this country, with another one with which they detest each other: Russia. Not only that, Vladimir Putin added to this alliance a controversial ally, Iran, opening a scenario that does not stop escalating towards a conflict of unforeseeable consequences. But the United States will again be a problem for China, starting in November 2024 and only if the new US president is Donald Trump.
The most important problem that Xi Jinping faces today is of a domestic nature and has to do with the fall in the growth of the Chinese economy. A crisis that has been accentuated by the shock in the real estate market caused by the collapse of a giant in the sector, Evergrande, which is still making the Beijing stock exchange creak and has left thousands of people homeless and bankrupt. Prosperity with a nationalist ethic is faltering, and together with China's responsibility for the Covid pandemic are causing great damage to China's prestige as a global supplier of goods. The immediate consequence has been the emergence of pockets of social resistance, mainly after the resumption of the savage quarantines that the Chinese government wanted to reinstate but had to deactivate.
A very significant fact that reaffirms what we say is the reappearance of the so-called "Mao's citizen militias". We have previously said that in Chinese schools a militaristic mystique is promoted to generate in young people the pride of dying for their country. The novelty is that now, this proclamation has been transferred to other areas as well. Dozens of Chinese state-owned enterprises have established new People's Armed Forces departments at their headquarters in recent months, a Financial Times analysis shows. The departments were historically groups affiliated with the People's Liberation Army's county- and village-level recruitment efforts under Mao Tse Tung. Today, they often carry out civil defense activities and contribute to military recruitment, promotion and training. Experts say the rise of such units reflects President Xi Jinping's increased focus on security and concerns about the risk of social instability as China's economy grows at its slowest pace in decades.
But we ratify: the surprising reception that American businessmen offered Xi Jinping in San Francisco last November 2023 (a strange combination of progressive ¨woke¨ and communist dictatorship) should not confuse us. The Chinese leader has not renounced the strategic competition with the United States, nor Taiwan, nor to be in 2049 the first world power to reorganize and impose a new global order. But its military power is not enough to confront its adversary who, taking advantage of the exacerbated Chinese nationalism, seized the opportunity to add allies to maintain a forceful military presence in the China Sea. In addition, Russia is still very busy in the war with Ukraine, and in its own internal problems such as some incipient popular rebellions due to the always suspicious disappearance of Putin's political opponents, and the end of Europe's "addiction" to Russian gas, which is generating the plummeting revenues of Gazprom, the Kremlin's state monopoly.
Xi Jinping is changing his strategy, lowering the decibels of confrontation with the United States but not renouncing his strategy of world expansion. In addition to the domestic issues already mentioned, he is also trying to avoid sanctions on his technology production companies, especially those dedicated to the manufacture of microchips, in order to gain time, be able to develop them and compete with their American counterparts.
The world is big enough for both of us", Xi answered when he was asked about China's future relationship with the United States at the APEC summit held in San Francisco. What he did not clarify and no one asked him is which country will occupy the first place in this supposed coexistence.
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