Accustomed to decades of fiscal hostility, the agricultural producer developed extensive (although legitimate) debates focused on a single issue: withholding taxes. However, this approach did not allow them to unveil a threat of seismic proportions that is silently emerging: China.
Far from being a voracious customer, this country is steadily advancing as an implacable competitor whose genetic ambition threatens to reshape the global agricultural map.
Redefining Agricultural Competition
Since Xi Jinping took power, China has been pursuing agricultural self-sufficiency with overwhelming results. In 2024, it harvested 706.5 million tons of grain (+1.6% vs. 2023), with a yield of 394.7 kg/mu (+5.1 kg). Its 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) targets 770 million tons by 2025, and by 2030 it will add 55 million more, reaching over 760 million. In soybeans, it projects 23 million tons by 2025, a direct hit to Argentina, while securing 117 million arable hectares, double Argentina's arable land.
In 2024, it approved 12 transgenic crops (soybean, corn, cotton), integrating massive biotechnology. The Seed Congress 2025 and Nanfan Forum (March 19-23, Hainan) showcased pest- and climate-resistant crops optimized with "SeedLLM," an AI model that accelerates genetic development. The Smart Agriculture Plan (2024-2028) pushes for digital villages and high-tech agricultural parks, backed by 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) in debt relief and 10 billion in direct subsidies.
At the same time, the December 2024 Central Rural Work Conference made it clear: "absolute" stability in wheat and rice production is non-negotiable, and strategic areas such as the Yangtze River region already produce double-crop rice and high-quality wheat at levels that far exceed Argentine yields.
The Fall of a Titan: The Harbinger for Argentina?
In the United States, China has already made its mark: in January 2025, the launch of the DeepSeek Artificial Intelligence platform brought down almost one billion dollars in the US technology market in one day. In the same vein, 60% of healthcare biotech companies collapsed and investment funds ($500-2 billion) are currently closing due to accumulating losses.
Furthermore, in the space of just three years, the country went from being an undisputed global leader to depending on China for 90% of its pharmaceutical raw materials (APIs). This strategic vulnerability seriously compromises its capacity to produce vaccines and other essential drugs in the event of a new pandemic.
Argentina: Efficiency Threatens Existence
Argentina's agriculture, an economic pillar with soybeans, corn and beef, is facing a lethal storm. China is perfecting crops and livestock with advanced biotechnology, seeking to flood international markets with agricultural products at a third of current values, an unsustainable scenario for a sector that still relies on traditional production methods.
In this unprecedented and hostile global game board, the mere elimination of withholding taxes, long demanded, proves to be an insufficient palliative measure in the face of the Asian giant's overwhelming advance. Preliminary estimates suggest that 80% of Argentine producers could go bankrupt in the event of continuing along the same path, even with the total and immediate elimination of tax burdens.
The fundamental question that should resonate in every corner of the sector is no longer the traditional "to whom to export?" but a much deeper imperative: " what can we produce?"
The Regulatory Framework: A Global Rarity.
Argentina has an ace up its sleeve: its regulatory framework for gene editing. More agile than Brazil, absent in the United States and the European Union, it allows innovations to be approved quickly, attracting biotech companies for both production and investment. With the United States suffocated by its regulatory crisis (3,400 companies in check), an immediate alliance to produce genetically superior crops and livestock is the only tangible way to dispute, head to head, the agricultural leadership against the colossal Chinese machinery.
This is not an option, it is a vital necessity to initiate the joint and rapid production of genetically advanced products in a context where the countdown has already begun, time is pressing and the question no longer admits evasions: it is a question of survival or succumb.
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